Tag Archives: Andy Burnham

View on the Spring Statement - David Laws, GK Adviser

Budget preview: One week to go

In his first budget, to be delivered to the Commons next Wednesday, the Chancellor John Healey will repeat his defining messages: money and power moved out of Westminster and a budget built on fiscal discipline and stability. The detail of the Budget itself is widely expected to focus on families and business – building on the Burnham government’s early theme of ‘breathing space’ for those struggling.

With a week to go, and in striking contrast to the last two budgets delivered by Rachel Reeves, we have so far seen little of the usual speculation or Treasury leaks on policies expected to feature in the headline Statement. The government will want to position this as a ‘no drama’ budget, not least because large spending decisions on welfare, defence, and social care appear delayed until after the budget.

The fiscal inheritance remains rather similar to past budgets, but with higher public sector pay demands, and higher than expected inflation together with in-year spending pressures, departmental spending will need to be addressed with little ‘headroom’ for manoeuvre.

The prime minister has said that he wants to run the most ‘pro-growth and pro-business country in the world’ and the FT has reported that both PM and Chancellor have reassured business leaders there will be no significant tax increases, sticking to the Starmer government’s self-imposed fiscal rules. This therefore means the government is likely to seek short-term measures to alleviate cost of living pressures. Further measures expected in the budget include:

  • Financial and Professional Services: It is now understood that rises to Capital Gains Tax have been ruled out; a move clearly designed to signal that this government is neither anti-business nor anti-wealth. Instead. we expect the chancellor to look to the banking sector as his primary revenue raising source. Whilst this may be consistent with the government’s overall positioning as a government for ‘working people’, protestations from the financial services sector that the government is undermining its international competitiveness will inevitably follow.
  • Education and skills: Reducing the number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) is a priority of this government. The budget is likely to feature further advance payments that pre-empt the recommendations of the Milburn Review, building on the Chancellor’s announcement of a £100 million expansion of apprenticeship brokerage services across mayoral strategic authorities. It will also offer an opportunity to put some funding behind Burnham’s commitment to expanding vocational and technical pathways in schools for students aged 14-16.
  • Health: The health sector will be keen to see further funding for integrated neighbourhood health services, building on plans to bring NHS, council and community services closer together. The budget could also clarify how devolution may give mayors and local leaders greater flexibility over health and social care priorities.
  • Energy: We expect an energy package for low-income households and a further freeze to Fuel Duty. The energy secretary has reportedly been tasked with finding more than £2bn of savings from the department’s budget, with reform of the Boiler Upgrade Scheme expected to contribute to those reductions. While the scheme is expected to remain in place, cuts to its £2.7bn five-year budget could reduce the level of support available for heat pump installations and slow the uptake of low-carbon heating technologies.

While Burnham remains personally popular in the polls, many think the budget will be the end of his honeymoon period. With the prospect of a Spring 2027 election, we should keep watch for policies that not only consolidate support from the so-called progressive left but also measures aimed at winning back Labour voters who have shifted support away from the party since 2024. With so many of the major reforms that Burnham has committed to – from the National Care Service to electoral reform – deferred until the next parliament, the public will become increasingly restless for progress and change as we hit the halfway point of this parliament. Questions are already being asked what the prime minister plans to do with the landslide majority he currently has in the House of Commons, which polls suggest would be significantly cut or even lost in a general election. The budget will be the government’s chance to set a clear course for the coming months and indeed years, and it will be important that the chancellor and prime minister seize it.

What Great British Grid means for Britain’s electricity network

In his first address to Labour Party Conference as prime minister, Andy Burnham set out plans for a new government-backed body, Great British Grid (GBG), as part of a wider effort to address high energy costs, accelerate infrastructure delivery and support economic growth.

For investors and businesses, the government’s plans for GBG are unlikely to represent a fundamental change to the ownership or operation of Britain’s electricity network. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has said that GBG will ‘complement, rather than replace’ the companies already responsible for operating the electricity system, with the role of existing network operators remaining unchanged. Instead, the focus is on changing how future transmission infrastructure projects are developed and delivered.

GBG will operate as a branch of Great British Energy (GBE) and will participate in bids for future transmission projects. Rather than incumbent network operators automatically developing new infrastructure, projects could be awarded through a competitive process involving bids from GBG, existing network companies and private investors. The government argues that increasing competition in this way will help speed up grid expansion, support economic growth and reduce the costs of network investment that are ultimately passed on to consumers through energy bills.

The scale of GBG’s involvement will depend on the funding available to it. GBE was allocated £8.3 billion of capital funding for this parliament, although a proportion of that funding has already been committed to other priorities, including support for small modular nuclear reactors. While the final allocation to GBG has yet to be confirmed, it is likely to be small compared with the scale of investment required across the electricity network. Planned transmission investment during the 2026-31 regulatory period alone is expected to total around £70 billion, with substantial further investment required throughout the 2030s.

The use of competition to deliver transmission infrastructure is not entirely new. The Competitively Appointed Transmission Owner (CATO) regime, introduced under the Conservative government in 2023, was designed to open parts of the transmission network to competitive procurement. GBG therefore builds on an existing framework for competition, while giving the state a more direct role in bidding for future transmission projects.

The government has also announced reforms that would allow businesses to construct their own grid connections rather than waiting for network operators to undertake the work. Ministers hope this approach will accelerate the delivery of energy projects, industrial developments and AI data centres in the UK.

While these reforms may help reduce some delays, many industry groups continue to argue that the planning and consenting system remains one of the biggest barriers to faster infrastructure delivery. The success of the government’s approach is therefore likely to depend not only on changes to grid connections, but also on whether wider planning reforms can shorten approval times for major energy projects.

Please contact Brett Morton via brett.morton@gkstrategy.com if you would like to discuss the government’s energy reforms in more detail.

What does Andy Burnham’s social care announcement mean for providers?

On Tuesday 29 July, Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Louise Casey and Health Secretary Yvette Cooper outlined the government’s approach to adult social care reform. Burnham said it was ‘shameful’ that decades of political point-scoring had come at the expense of meaningful reform and argued that he is prepared to spend political capital to deliver lasting change. The prime minister used the speech to make three key announcements.

First, Burnham confirmed that Louise Casey’s independent review of adult social care will be accelerated by a year, with final recommendations now expected by summer 2027. He said Casey had been asked to consider how the government could deliver a National Care Service, arguing that social care should become more preventative, person-centred and better integrated with the NHS.

Second, Burnham announced a renewed focus on the social care workforce. Building on the government’s plans to introduce a Fair Pay Agreement for care workers from 2028/29, he said ministers would explore wider reforms to improve pay, training and career progression. He also proposed creating clearer pathways between social care and NHS roles to help professionalise the workforce and improve recruitment and retention.

Third, Burnham announced the launch of cross-party talks on social care reform involving the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. He argued that lasting reform would require political consensus and described the discussions as the first test of his commitment to a less adversarial style of politics. Burnham said common ground must be found if policymakers are to address challenges that have remained unresolved for decades.

Both Andy Burnham and Louise Casey signalled that future reform would involve greater scrutiny of private providers. Casey argued that there remains an important role for a mixed market in adult social care, but criticised providers perceived to be “profiteering” from care services. Burnham echoed these concerns, arguing that some parts of the sector have prioritised profit and cost-cutting over the quality of care and outcomes for vulnerable people. However, Burnham has historically adopted a pragmatic rather than an ideological approach to public service reform. As health secretary in the Brown-led government, he recognised the role that independent providers could play in increasing NHS capacity and reducing waiting times where they delivered value for patients and taxpayers.

As a result, he is unlikely to pursue reforms that materially reduce the private sector’s role in adult social care. Given the significant share of care capacity and expertise provided by independent providers, the prime minister is likely to be mindful of avoiding reforms that could destabilise the market by causing market exits and place further pressure on already stretched services. Instead, providers should expect a greater focus on accountability and transparency, clearer standards to improve the quality and consistency of care, and enhanced scrutiny of how public funding and provider profits are used. The NHS Modernisation Bill currently going through the Commons is one key place to watch if any substantive change is to come forward.

On funding, Burnham argued that significant improvements could be achieved through more effective use of existing resources before tax rises are considered. He highlighted the costs associated with avoidable hospital admissions and delayed discharges caused by inadequate social care provision, suggesting that greater investment in prevention could deliver substantial savings across the wider health system. However, significant questions remain about the long-term funding model for a National Care Service. Reports suggest officials are exploring options ranging from social insurance-style contributions to inheritance-based levies, although ministers have stressed that no decisions will be taken until Casey’s review is complete and the new prime minister remains constrained to some extent by Labour’s 2024 manifesto commitments on tax.

Phil Hope, GK’s Strategic Adviser and former care services minister under Andy Burnham at the Department for Health, who was directly referenced in the prime minister’s speech said: ‘The prime minister was clear that he wants to build a broad consensus around social care reform and move the debate beyond the political point-scoring that has hindered progress in the past. Bringing forward the Louise Casey review to 2027 creates an opportunity for that conversation to take place away from the pressures of a forthcoming general election. While concerns about profiteering were raised, there was little detail on the scale of the issue or how ministers might address it, making this an area the Casey review is likely to explore further.’

Steve Brine, GK’s Strategic Advisor and former health minister as well as chair of the cross-party Health and Social Care Select Committee said: ‘It was a hugely impressive performance from Andy Burnham with what was more a political than a policy announcement but his authenticity on the subject is welcome and important. It was really about creating the political conditions for reform rather than announcing the detail, but that day will come – along with who pays – and that is the next big moment. Casey’s challenge is to define what ministers actually mean by ‘National Care Service’ – is it about standards, funding, eligibility – and for the PM it’s how will someone’s experience be different in two, three or five years’ time? That’s ultimately how people will judge success.’

A new UK Prime Minister, potentially a new Energy Secretary – another hydrogen delay?

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran and the disruption to oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reinforced the importance of energy security and independence. Against this backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, reports suggest that Prime Minister-in-waiting Andy Burnham may be more open to new North Sea oil and gas developments. This could include a potential expansion of the Rosebank oil field (the UK’s largest undeveloped oil field) and the Jackdaw gas field (one of the largest undeveloped gas fields in the North Sea), while also accelerating the deployment of advanced clean energy technologies.

Increasingly recognised as a key part of the UK’s future energy mix, hydrogen (the most abundant element in the universe, accounting for around 75% of matter) is highly versatile, enabling its use in electricity generation, fuel cells, industrial heat and as feedstock for the production of low-carbon fuels such as sustainable aviation fuel.  As policymakers seek both energy security and decarbonisation, hydrogen offers a credible alternative to diminishing fossil fuel resources.

Expanding the hydrogen industry is about more than achieving climate goals; it represents a significant economic opportunity. It can create high-value jobs across engineering, manufacturing and energy, while providing a pathway for workers in the oil and gas, chemicals and heavy engineering sectors to transition into low-carbon industries. Hydrogen projects can also drive regional growth by attracting investment into ’industrial heartlands’ and helping to regenerate communities historically reliant on carbon-intensive industries. Looking ahead, the opportunity is substantial, with the global hydrogen market projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2050 according to analysis carried out by Deloitte.

The UK is well positioned to capitalise on this opportunity. It benefits from a strong industrial base, established energy infrastructure and expertise developed through decades of oil and gas activity. Major industrial clusters in the North West, South Wales, the Solent, Grangemouth and the North East provide an immediate and scalable market for hydrogen, particularly for high-temperature industrial processes where electrification is not yet commercially viable. Recognising this potential, the government has sought to attract investment across the hydrogen value chain through measures including the Hydrogen Production Business Model and Hydrogen Allocation Rounds (HARs). It has also committed more than £500 million towards hydrogen infrastructure, including plans for the UK’s first regional hydrogen network by 2031 to support the production, storage and transportation of low-carbon hydrogen.

However, impending policy decisions are creating uncertainty for project developers and investors. HAR1 supported 11 projects (such as Bradford Low Carbon Hydrogen in Yorkshire) and HAR2 shortlisted a further 27 further projects (such as Green Hydrogen 5 in Wales). However, progress has been slower than anticipated, with only a limited number of HAR1 projects advancing towards Final Investment Decisions. Progress on HAR2 has also been limited, as shortlisted projects remain in the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s due diligence and cost assurance process, with developers still lacking clarity on when that process will conclude. At the same time, the revised Hydrogen Strategy, originally expected in autumn 2025, remains delayed.

The combination of these delays and a lack of policy clarity have created uncertainty for developers and investors. Many project developers continue to commit substantial resources towards land, planning, engineering, grid connections and supply chain engagement while awaiting clearer signals from government. If this uncertainty persists, it risks slowing project deployment, discouraging participation in future allocation rounds and weakening the UK’s attractiveness as a destination for hydrogen investment.

With a new Prime Minister and potentially a new energy secretary, important questions remain: Will the long-awaited Hydrogen Strategy face further delays while ministers review priorities? Will it provide a clear vision for where hydrogen can deliver the greatest economic, technical, environmental and societal value? The UK has a significant opportunity to become a leader in the global hydrogen economy, but realising that potential will require clear, timely and credible policy signals from government.

If you would like to discuss GK’s public affairs offering and how policy developments may impact investment in emerging energy technologies, please contact Brett Morton at brett.morton@gkstrategy.com .

What could skills policy look like under a Burnham-led government?

The prospect of Andy Burnham succeeding Keir Starmer as Prime Minister is significant for the skills sector. Burnham is a strong advocate for technical education and has criticised previous governments for their ‘obsession’ with higher education, including former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair’s target of having more than 50% of young people go to university.

In his first major speech since launching his bid to replace Starmer on Monday 29 June, Burnham acknowledged that while university is ‘great for those who want it’, there also needs to be a focus on the life chances of those who don’t wish to opt for the higher education route. Given he has long called for ‘true parity’ between academic and technical education, as highlighted in his manifesto for his 2015 Labour leadership bid, Burnham is likely to place much greater emphasis on study programmes linked to in-demand technical and vocational occupations as part of a broader effort to create clearer pathways into employment for young people.

Burham’s Manchester Baccalaureate (MBacc), which provides a pathway into the region’s high growth sectors through technical and vocational qualifications, is a clear example of what this shift could look like on a national scale. Launched by the Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) in September 2024, the MBacc guarantees every young person in the region a clear pathway to employment opportunities through a combination of careers advice services, work experience placements and technical qualifications, including by expanding access to T Levels and apprenticeships.

Since its launch in 2024-25, the MBacc has benefitted from growing support amongst local employers. In January 2026, GMCA confirmed that several leading employers, including Autotrader, IBM and the NHS, had pledged over 1,000 additional work placements to T Level students. This demonstrates how engaged and invested businesses can be in skills and the future workforce, provided the right policy framework is in place. The MBacc not only provides technical education routes into growing regional industries, but it also encourages young people to make subject choices at the ages of 14, 16 and 18 that support progression into these pathways.

Another aspect of Burnham’s approach is the emphasis he places on greater collaboration between skills, health and employment, specifically the need to adopt a place-based model while pivoting away from a nationally directed skills system. One of the advantages of a place-based model is the recognition of significant regional differences in the causes of unemployment and the nature of local labour markets. This includes inconsistent access to training provision and the variety of opportunities for growth across the country. A Burnham-led government is likely therefore to see more devolution by default, whereby employment support is further integrated with local health, skills and community services. This would mean that providers in the FE and HE sectors play a much larger role in supporting people into work.

A Burnham premiership is likely to see a more devolved and technically-focused skills and training system. On a practical level, this is likely to involve granting established combined mayoral authorities (like London, Greater Manchester and the West Midlands) greater autonomy in shaping skills provision around local labour market demands. For employers and training providers, this direction of travel will place greater emphasis on more joined-up local working and support across education, health and employment services. While this has the potential to significantly transform the skills sector, the test for Burnham is whether he can demonstrate that a localised, devolved approach will deliver economic growth, boost living standards, and give every young person growing up a ‘clear path into a re-industrialised Britain’.

If you would like to talk more the potential of a Burnham-led government and what this could mean for the skills sector, please email Noureen@gkstrategy.com.