Tag Archives: Liberal Democrats

Keir Starmer’s Nightmare – a look ahead to the May 7 elections

The UK is facing unprecedented electoral times. For the first time in British history, a party other than Labour or the Conservative Party has led in the polls for over 12 months. A governing party has never fallen in the opinion polls as fast or as heavily as the current Labour government. Fewer than two in five people say they would vote for Labour or the Conservatives, which has never happened before. To help us make sense of these seismic changes, esteemed political scientist and elections expert Sir John Curtice joined GK Strategy and our guests to explain the fundamental shifts that have taken place in electoral behaviour in the UK, and to unpack what this means for the upcoming elections on May 7.

On May 7, millions of people across the United Kingdom will go to the polls to vote in this important set of elections. Around 5000 seats across 136 local councils in England, which includes all the London borough councils, are up for grabs. Outside of England, Scotland and Wales will have parliamentary elections which will determine what party will run the devolved governments in Edinburgh and Cardiff. These elections are the biggest set of elections between now and the next general election, and the results will inevitably have a significant impact on politics and the standings of the current party leaders.

Curtice explained that British electoral attitudes have become highly fragmented, with the underlying shift being visible in the breakdown of traditional voting predictors. Historically, working-class and younger voters tended to support Labour, while middle- and upper-class and older voters leaned Conservative. However, his analysis of the 2024 general election showed that these relationships have largely collapsed. In their place, voting behaviour is increasingly structured around social values: whether individuals are socially liberal, and view diversity as something to be promoted, or socially conservative, and favouring greater cultural homogeneity.

This shift first became apparent during the Brexit referendum. While there was a relatively even split between economically left- and right-wing voters on whether to remain in or leave the EU, social attitudes were far more polarised: social liberals overwhelmingly supported Remain, while social conservatives backed Leave. Curtice argued that Brexit crystallised this realignment in British politics, with social values now serving as the strongest predictor of voting behaviour.

Looking to the elections on May 7 and the fate of the two main parties, Curtice laid out a grim picture for them both. He warned that the pro-Brexit coalition which delivered Boris Johnson’s victory in 2019 has now fractured, leaving the Conservative vote split almost evenly between Leave and Remain supporters. For Labour, the picture that Curtice painted is arguably worse, with its 2024 coalition fragmenting across the Green Party, Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats. Curtice argued that the driving factor behind this is that both the Green party and Reform UK have firmly chosen a side on the socially liberal–socially conservative divide, allowing them to reap the electoral rewards of modern Britain’s voting behaviour.

May 7 looks to be a dark night for Labour and the Conservative Party, with Curtice stating the night will either be “bad, very bad, or existential” for them both. Polling day could result in what Curtice described as “Keir Starmer’s Nightmare”: Labour coming third in Wales and Scotland, losing to Reform UK in working class councils, and the Green Party beating them in London. While he acknowledged the considerable uncertainty around the elections and their outcomes, Curtice argued that the two-party system is effectively dead. In its place, the first-past-the-post system that once enabled the Conservatives and Labour to dominate is now contributing to their decline. Sir John aptly captured it: “those who live by the sword can die by the sword.”

GK Strategy are experts in helping businesses and investors understand, navigate and influence the ever-changing political landscape. If you would like to talk about the impact of the local elections or the political landscape more generally, please contact scott@gkstrategy.com.

Stuck in the middle with you? Ed Davey, the Lib Dem party conference and the moderate fight

GK Associate Director Thea Southwell Reeves and Adviser Mariella Turley share their reflections on the recent Lib Dem Party Conference in Bournemouth

The Lib Dem conference was a prime opportunity for the party to remind voters of who they are politically and what they offer. A combination of publicity stunts and clever campaign strategies sent 72 Lib Dem MPs to parliament at the last election – the party’s biggest electoral success for over a century. For leader Ed Davey, the challenge was to usher in a new, serious party that could offer a credible alternative to voters dissatisfied with the parties on the traditional left and right of British politics. If this was his mission, he may have missed the mark. His decision to march into conference as the head of a marching band while his party was having yet another row over trans rights, has not given much reassurance to potential voters (outside the conference hall walls) that the party represents a serious electoral alternative.

Although Davey remains in a strong position as leader with the support of a mostly happy party behind him, the public is growing weary of his endless stunts. Polling conducted by More in Common was presented to members at conference and showed that more than 60% of voters think the party’s publicity stunts make them look less serious. Many voters are also still unsure what the party stands for.

Much of the focus of the four-day conference was on positioning the Lib Dems as the only credible opposition to Reform UK. Former leader Tim Farron took to the stage adorned in the Union Jack flag in a bid to frame the party as a progressive voice that can reclaim patriotism for the centrist majority. Davey’s speech centred on criticism of Reform and included claims that Nigel Farage wants to liberalise UK gun laws. The slogan ‘don’t let Trump’s America become Farage’s Britain’ echoed throughout.

We did get a flavour of some policy. Party members voted to revise the Lib Dems’ 2045 net zero target to align with the government’s 2050 net zero goal. Duncan Brack, chair of the Lib Dems’ climate working group, accepted that the earlier deadline had become unrealistic thanks to previous government efforts. Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper used her speech to unveil plans for a windfall tax on big banks to fund an Energy Security Bank. The bank would offer loans to homeowners and small businesses to invest in insultation, solar power and heat pumps. However, Cooper was forced to admit that no formal conversations have taken place with any banks to date. The Lib Dem science and technology spokesperson Victoria Collins hinted at tighter social media regulation, proposing the introduction of warnings on addictive apps and a two-hour cap on scrolling for under 18s. Davey used his leader’s speech to outline some key policy objectives including a new customs union with the EU, cutting energy bills in half by 2050, a guarantee of starting urgent cancer treatment within two months of diagnosis for all patients, and discounted visas for US cancer researchers.

Those hoping that the party’s annual conference would provide clarity on the Lib Dems’ role in the British political ecosystem are likely to feel none the wiser. Davey’s closing speech pitches the party as a safe space for disgruntled voters on the left and the right. A place for both Labour voters who are frustrated with Starmer’s performance in his first year of government and Conservative voters who feel profoundly anxious about Badenoch’s drift to the right. Translating that into clear narratives around policy will be deeply challenging for the party and risks political incoherence. The party’s pitch to be the moderate voice of British politics requires considerable skill and acumen to sell to a voting public that is currently more attracted to polarising policies.

The fundamental question for conference was how the party can build on its 2024 electoral success. Instead of publicity stunts for media attention, Davey should put his energy into carving out a distinct message to voters. The party has neither the finances nor the political capital to campaign on all issues so they would be wiser to focus on developing appealing centrist policies such as ambitious integration with the EU, a compassionate approach to immigrants and a more socially liberal attitude to equal rights. These are the big-ticket items most likely to appeal to both the former one nation Tories and the liberal left and help the Lib Dems seize the centre ground.

Making the most of party conference season

GK Strategy is pleased to share its guide to effective engagement with policymakers during party conference season.

Insight from the GK team on making the most of party conferences can be accessed here: https://gkstrategy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Engaging-at-Party-Conference-Season-GK-Strategy-September-2025.pdf

The view from Westminster in London

GK Strategy – General Election Update

General Election Results Briefing

The GK team reacts to the 2024 General Election results, with GK’s Strategic Advisers sharing their insights on Labour’s historic victory, and the implications for Sir Keir Starmer’s new government.

To read our briefing please click here.