Tag Archives: local elections

Keir Starmer’s Nightmare – a look ahead to the May 7 elections

The UK is facing unprecedented electoral times. For the first time in British history, a party other than Labour or the Conservative Party has led in the polls for over 12 months. A governing party has never fallen in the opinion polls as fast or as heavily as the current Labour government. Fewer than two in five people say they would vote for Labour or the Conservatives, which has never happened before. To help us make sense of these seismic changes, esteemed political scientist and elections expert Sir John Curtice joined GK Strategy and our guests to explain the fundamental shifts that have taken place in electoral behaviour in the UK, and to unpack what this means for the upcoming elections on May 7.

On May 7, millions of people across the United Kingdom will go to the polls to vote in this important set of elections. Around 5000 seats across 136 local councils in England, which includes all the London borough councils, are up for grabs. Outside of England, Scotland and Wales will have parliamentary elections which will determine what party will run the devolved governments in Edinburgh and Cardiff. These elections are the biggest set of elections between now and the next general election, and the results will inevitably have a significant impact on politics and the standings of the current party leaders.

Curtice explained that British electoral attitudes have become highly fragmented, with the underlying shift being visible in the breakdown of traditional voting predictors. Historically, working-class and younger voters tended to support Labour, while middle- and upper-class and older voters leaned Conservative. However, his analysis of the 2024 general election showed that these relationships have largely collapsed. In their place, voting behaviour is increasingly structured around social values: whether individuals are socially liberal, and view diversity as something to be promoted, or socially conservative, and favouring greater cultural homogeneity.

This shift first became apparent during the Brexit referendum. While there was a relatively even split between economically left- and right-wing voters on whether to remain in or leave the EU, social attitudes were far more polarised: social liberals overwhelmingly supported Remain, while social conservatives backed Leave. Curtice argued that Brexit crystallised this realignment in British politics, with social values now serving as the strongest predictor of voting behaviour.

Looking to the elections on May 7 and the fate of the two main parties, Curtice laid out a grim picture for them both. He warned that the pro-Brexit coalition which delivered Boris Johnson’s victory in 2019 has now fractured, leaving the Conservative vote split almost evenly between Leave and Remain supporters. For Labour, the picture that Curtice painted is arguably worse, with its 2024 coalition fragmenting across the Green Party, Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats. Curtice argued that the driving factor behind this is that both the Green party and Reform UK have firmly chosen a side on the socially liberal–socially conservative divide, allowing them to reap the electoral rewards of modern Britain’s voting behaviour.

May 7 looks to be a dark night for Labour and the Conservative Party, with Curtice stating the night will either be “bad, very bad, or existential” for them both. Polling day could result in what Curtice described as “Keir Starmer’s Nightmare”: Labour coming third in Wales and Scotland, losing to Reform UK in working class councils, and the Green Party beating them in London. While he acknowledged the considerable uncertainty around the elections and their outcomes, Curtice argued that the two-party system is effectively dead. In its place, the first-past-the-post system that once enabled the Conservatives and Labour to dominate is now contributing to their decline. Sir John aptly captured it: “those who live by the sword can die by the sword.”

GK Strategy are experts in helping businesses and investors understand, navigate and influence the ever-changing political landscape. If you would like to talk about the impact of the local elections or the political landscape more generally, please contact scott@gkstrategy.com.

Local Elections 2025

The main takeaway from May 2025’s local elections is that Reform UK is now firmly placed among the top players in Westminster. Despite only recently professionalising and mobilising, the party has turned a sea of established Conservative councils a bright turquoise blue. The Conservatives are now rapidly losing electoral support and Reform UK’s Leader Nigel Farage has declared his party the main opposition to the government.

Reform UK’s sharp rise has been evident since last year’s general election. Translating its position in the opinion polls into electoral success has, however, previously been inhibited by the UK’s first-past-the-post voting system. This saw the party win only five seats in last year’s general election despite receiving 14% of the national vote share. Reform UK has since showed no signs of slowing down, with opinion polls increasingly in their favour in the lead up to this month’s local elections. The party was undoubtedly the big winner of the contest, securing 677 council seats, demonstrating its credentials as a serious challenger to the two main parties.

The Conservatives have had the toughest result of all the parties, losing 674 seats overall. Of the 23 councils up for election, they had been in control of 16. Reform UK now control ten, the Liberal Democrats have the keys to three, and a further ten have no overall party control. This is likely to raise questions over Kemi Badenoch’s future as leader of the Conservative Party, although a formal challenge is unlikely to materialise given Conservative MPs’ appetite for stability after a recent series of damaging leadership changes. Conservative headquarters will now have to ensure its strategy is bulletproof if it hopes to fend off the threat of Reform UK and meaningfully challenge the incumbent Labour government at the next general election.

It was not a successful result for the government either, with Labour losing 187 seats. The Party’s only glimmer of hope can come from returning incumbent mayors in Doncaster, North Tyneside and West of England. While Labour had a smaller pool of seats to defend than the Conservatives, meaning its losses were less severe, keeping this trio of local authorities will be hard to celebrate considering Reform UK came a close second in all of them. With a brand new Reform UK MP overturning Labour’s majority of 14,696 in Runcorn and Helsby by a mere six votes, there is clearly serious dissatisfaction with the government’s direction of travel, undoubtedly causing a serious headache for No.10.

Two truths emerged from the first real test of the government: Labour must pull through on delivery for the public if it hopes to keep its position in power come the next general election, and the Conservatives need to figure out how to remain as the main opposition party with Reform UK continuing to gather momentum at pace.

Join us on Thursday 8 May at 9am for our Post Local Elections Webinar with former Treasury Minister Rt Hon David Laws and JL Partners Director Guy Miscampbell to discuss the local election results and what they mean for national politics.

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View from Westminster: Local Elections Expected to Increase Pressure on the Prime Minister

GK Associate Joshua Owolabi and GK Adviser Noureen Ahmed assess the mood in Westminster ahead of the local elections in May.

Conservative Party (dis)unity in focus ahead of the local elections

With local elections taking place on 2 May, all eyes are firmly on the Conservatives, as the party braces for defeat. Respected psephologists Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings, the Directors of the Local Government Chronicle’s Elections Centre, have predicted that the Party could potentially lose up to 500 seats, if it repeats its poor performance from the 2023 local elections. This would see half of the Tory councillors facing election lose their seats. Despite the optimism from Sunak’s allies that fellow Tory MPs will not agitate for yet another change in leadership, a heavy defeat could be perilous for the Prime Minister.

Speculation continues in Westminster about the implications of defeat for Sunak and his government. In recent months, press coverage has focused on whether a rebel group of MPs and former Tory advisers were plotting to use the election results to further undermine Sunak’s authority. There is already ammunition for the plotters to use, such as the rebellion in mid-April over the Second Reading of the Tobacco and Vaping Bill. The rebellion was orchestrated by the Tory right, and included potential successors, such as Kemi Badenoch. Although the Government won the vote, it was a reminder that party discipline is still lacking – an ominous sign ahead of the local elections.

Sunak’s opponents within the Conservative Party will be well aware of the historical significance of local elections. In 1979, 1997 and 2010 respectively, Thatcher, Blair and Cameron all secured general election victories following strong performances in the local elections that preceded them. As a general election is only a few months away, many would question how a change in leadership would be beneficial to the Party. However, if the Conservatives are routed by Keir Starmer’s Labour, then it presents disgruntled MPs with a choice – are their plans to prevent a general election defeat best served by pressuring the Prime Minister on policy and strategy in private, or are more drastic measures required?