Tag Archives: Conservatives

Keir Starmer’s Nightmare – a look ahead to the May 7 elections

The UK is facing unprecedented electoral times. For the first time in British history, a party other than Labour or the Conservative Party has led in the polls for over 12 months. A governing party has never fallen in the opinion polls as fast or as heavily as the current Labour government. Fewer than two in five people say they would vote for Labour or the Conservatives, which has never happened before. To help us make sense of these seismic changes, esteemed political scientist and elections expert Sir John Curtice joined GK Strategy and our guests to explain the fundamental shifts that have taken place in electoral behaviour in the UK, and to unpack what this means for the upcoming elections on May 7.

On May 7, millions of people across the United Kingdom will go to the polls to vote in this important set of elections. Around 5000 seats across 136 local councils in England, which includes all the London borough councils, are up for grabs. Outside of England, Scotland and Wales will have parliamentary elections which will determine what party will run the devolved governments in Edinburgh and Cardiff. These elections are the biggest set of elections between now and the next general election, and the results will inevitably have a significant impact on politics and the standings of the current party leaders.

Curtice explained that British electoral attitudes have become highly fragmented, with the underlying shift being visible in the breakdown of traditional voting predictors. Historically, working-class and younger voters tended to support Labour, while middle- and upper-class and older voters leaned Conservative. However, his analysis of the 2024 general election showed that these relationships have largely collapsed. In their place, voting behaviour is increasingly structured around social values: whether individuals are socially liberal, and view diversity as something to be promoted, or socially conservative, and favouring greater cultural homogeneity.

This shift first became apparent during the Brexit referendum. While there was a relatively even split between economically left- and right-wing voters on whether to remain in or leave the EU, social attitudes were far more polarised: social liberals overwhelmingly supported Remain, while social conservatives backed Leave. Curtice argued that Brexit crystallised this realignment in British politics, with social values now serving as the strongest predictor of voting behaviour.

Looking to the elections on May 7 and the fate of the two main parties, Curtice laid out a grim picture for them both. He warned that the pro-Brexit coalition which delivered Boris Johnson’s victory in 2019 has now fractured, leaving the Conservative vote split almost evenly between Leave and Remain supporters. For Labour, the picture that Curtice painted is arguably worse, with its 2024 coalition fragmenting across the Green Party, Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats. Curtice argued that the driving factor behind this is that both the Green party and Reform UK have firmly chosen a side on the socially liberal–socially conservative divide, allowing them to reap the electoral rewards of modern Britain’s voting behaviour.

May 7 looks to be a dark night for Labour and the Conservative Party, with Curtice stating the night will either be “bad, very bad, or existential” for them both. Polling day could result in what Curtice described as “Keir Starmer’s Nightmare”: Labour coming third in Wales and Scotland, losing to Reform UK in working class councils, and the Green Party beating them in London. While he acknowledged the considerable uncertainty around the elections and their outcomes, Curtice argued that the two-party system is effectively dead. In its place, the first-past-the-post system that once enabled the Conservatives and Labour to dominate is now contributing to their decline. Sir John aptly captured it: “those who live by the sword can die by the sword.”

GK Strategy are experts in helping businesses and investors understand, navigate and influence the ever-changing political landscape. If you would like to talk about the impact of the local elections or the political landscape more generally, please contact scott@gkstrategy.com.

Making the most of party conference season

GK Strategy is pleased to share its guide to effective engagement with policymakers during party conference season.

Insight from the GK team on making the most of party conferences can be accessed here: https://gkstrategy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Engaging-at-Party-Conference-Season-GK-Strategy-September-2025.pdf

Westminster in 2025: Policy Shifts and Political Risks

GK is delighted to present its ‘Westminster in 2025’ report which sets out the key policy shifts and political risks we are expecting to see over the coming 12 months.

The report can be accessed here: Westminster in 2025 – Policy Shifts and Political Risks

GK Strategy – General Election Update

General Election Results Briefing

The GK team reacts to the 2024 General Election results, with GK’s Strategic Advisers sharing their insights on Labour’s historic victory, and the implications for Sir Keir Starmer’s new government.

To read our briefing please click here.

Will Sunak’s Latest Reset Work?

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett examines the Prime Minister’s recent speech at Policy Exchange and whether he can address the Conservative Party’s declining fortunes.

Rishi Sunak turns his attention to security in bid to tackle Labour’s poll lead.

Following a dismal set of local election results and the high-profile defection of Dover MP Natalie Elphicke to Labour, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has attempted to reset the political agenda. He used his latest relaunch at Policy Exchange, a Conservative-friendly think tank, to portray himself as the best leader to guide the country through what he described as the “dangerous and transformational” years ahead.

References were made throughout to ensuring the UK’s security in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It was also telling that Sunak made a pitch to voters on the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence – an area where he will feel comfortable promoting his tech credentials against the Labour leader Keir Starmer, who is 17 years his senior.

It is not unusual for incumbent (and unpopular) governments to paint opposition parties as inexperienced and incapable at a time of potential national peril. Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown famously argued “this is no time for a novice” in the wake of the 2008 financial crash amid David Cameron’s growing popularity. However, to go for this tactic right at the start of a general election campaign does suggest Sunak’s No.10 operation is running out of levers to pull to tackle Starmer’s seemingly unassailable lead in the polls.

Sunak’s pivot into security marks a clear distinction from his previous attempts to put the Conservatives on the path to election victory. At the 2023 Conservative Party Conference, he tried to paint himself as the change candidate and separate himself from the then 13 years of Conservative rule. Sunak was subsequently forced to adopt a continuity-focused strategy and defend the Conservatives’ record in office following David Cameron’s return as Foreign Secretary later that year.

The extent to which Sunak’s latest reset will work will depend on whether the electorate is still listening. The Conservative Party can highlight its commitment to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, a pledge yet to be matched by Labour, who have adopted the looser definition of meeting the 2.5% figure “as soon as resources allow.” However, with Labour so far ahead in the polls and three changes of tack in less than a year, it does raise the prospect that the Prime Minister is trying to engage an electorate which is simply no longer interested in what the Conservatives have to offer.

The Impact of National Party Popularity on Local Politics

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett and GK Adviser Rebecca McMahon discuss the extent to which voter perception of national parties will shape the upcoming local election results.

Can local Conservative campaigners turn the tide on a bleak national picture?

Labour’s national polling lead over the Conservatives appears deeply entrenched. According to YouGov, the Party has held a 20+ point lead since September 2022. While on a national level the polls indicate that the Conservatives could be heading for annihilation in 2024, could there be a ray of hope for Conservative mayors and councillors ahead of the local elections on 2 May? Does national polling translate to voter preferences locally?

Support for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson’s leadership only consistently fell behind Labour following high-profile events such as Owen Paterson’s breaching of parliamentary rules on lobbying and the Partygate scandal. Rishi Sunak (with a little help from Liz Truss’ short-lived premiership) has been unable to turn the tide on the Party’s lack of national appeal.

Sunak has been unable to solidify Conservative support in the red wall – a key element of its 2019 voter coalition – and polling indicates that all red wall seats won will return to Labour at the upcoming general election, expected in October or November. Traditional Conservative voters from both wings of the Party are also deserting it over perceived policy failings. Voters focused on immigration policy are increasingly voicing support for Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats are making inroads with environmentally aware voters in Southern England.

However, with local elections taking place in early May, will these national trends translate to local level results?

Pollster Ipsos Mori has found that 42% of voters considered local factors most important in determining their vote in local elections. However, 33% of those polled also said that party policies on national issues were a decisive factor.

Conservative mayoral candidates have sought to distance themselves from their Party’s national brand and promote their personal appeal ahead of polling day. Andy Street, the West Midlands Mayor, has largely excluded references to the Conservative Party from his campaign material and, by his own admission, is running an individual ‘brand Andy’ campaign. Similarly, Conservative MP Ben Bradley, candidate for the East Midlands mayoralty, admitted to adopting a similar strategy, saying there is “clearly not a brilliant national picture”.

The extent to which these candidates can successfully separate themselves from the national party brand may be crucial to their success at a local level. However, with a third of voters saying party policies on national issues will be key in deciding how they vote in local elections, local campaigners could be bound by their Party’s national fortunes.