GK is delighted to present its ‘Westminster in 2025’ report which sets out the key policy shifts and political risks we are expecting to see over the coming 12 months.
The report can be accessed here: Westminster in 2025 – Policy Shifts and Political Risks
GK Associate Director, Will Blackman, explores what the government’s new Renters’ Rights Bill means for the future of rented housing in England.
The government’s Renters’ Rights Bill completed its passage in the House of Commons this week and is expected to receive Royal Assent in the coming months following the completion of its Lords’ stages. What does this significant piece of legislation mean for the private rented sector and the housing market as a whole?
The origins of this bill go back several years. The Theresa May government in 2019 first consulted on reforms to rebalance the rights and responsibilities of landlords and tenants, which included the ability of landlords to issue Section 21 notices, or so-called ‘no-fault’ evictions. This change continues to sit at the heart of the bill and is intended to give greater stability and security of tenure to tenants. It also provides landlords with reformed and expanded grounds for seeking possession of their properties under Section 8 of the Housing Act 1988. This includes cases where the landlord wishes to sell or to move into the property themselves. Other measures include stricter requirements around rent increases, the creation of a new ombudsman, new requirements on landlords to remedy mould and damp problems and a new right for tenants to request a pet.
The last Conservative government introduced its own version of this legislation – the Renters’ Reform Bill – however this fell away following the dissolution of Parliament ahead of the General Election. The Labour government’s version of the bill – now the Renters’ Rights Bill – includes some significant differences to its predecessor, almost all to the benefit of tenants rather than landlords. For example, tenants must now be in three months of rent arrears before landlords can seek possession, rather than the two months proposed by the Conservatives; the grace period after which landlords can seek possession in order to sell the property has also been doubled from six to twelve months and the notice period extended from two to four months. Moreover, the current version of the bill gives tenants new rights to terminate a tenancy from day one with two months’ notice – something previously not allowed under the last bill until at least four months after a tenancy started. This would have effectively created a minimum six-month term.
These reforms are the most significant changes to the regulation of the private rented sector for over 35 years. The residential landlord sector has been careful not to be seen opposing the legislation outright given the unhelpful optics around this. However, many individual landlords are concerned that the balance has tipped too far away from them, potentially leaving many unable to take back possession of their properties in reasonable circumstances. Court backlogs have provided an additional layer of concern, with delays in processing evictions claims already persisting in many parts of England, with many landlords calling for significant improvements in order to allay their concerns.
Some industry leaders such as Propertymark and the National Residential Landlords Association have warned that the proposed provisions could lead to landlords withdrawing from the sector, in turn limiting supply and driving up rents. The Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government’s own impact assessment does not predict an exodus of landlords from the sector. Indeed, landlords have been subject to a raft of regulatory and tax changes since 2015, but these have not resulted in significant divestment from the private rental market, which many had predicted at the time.
However these changes play out in the long term, individual and institutional investors in the private rented sector will need to grasp this new regulatory landscape quickly, especially given its wide-ranging impacts for the sector and the prospect of significant disruption to their portfolio. It is the case that home ownership remains unaffordable for many and this is unlikely to change in the near term. However, as the government looks to tip the balance in favour of tenants, it is vital that investors engage with the new regulatory landscape to ensure they are well prepared and can take steps to insulate themselves from any emerging risks.
To discuss the government’s housing policy reforms in more detail, please contact Will Blackman at will@gkstrategy.com
The welcoming of international students to study in the UK by Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson in her first two weeks of office was a change of tone, and one that was well received across the higher education sector. With Labour’s manifesto promising little in terms of concrete measures for the sector, and only a broad commitment to create “a secure future for higher education”, this early emphasis gave some much needed hope that the funding pressures on UK universities would be addressed as a priority.
In further signs that higher education policy was a focus for the new administration, Labour announced a review of the UK’s international education strategy during its party conference in September. The strategy was last reviewed in 2019 and set a target to increase the total number of international students undertaking higher education in the UK to 600,000 each year. Subsequent political pressures on the then Conservative government over net migration numbers led to a pivot in approach that shifted from celebrating the contribution of those coming to study in the UK, to something that required political scrutiny.
The sector will be looking for this government to be more receptive than the previous administration to shoring up universities’ financial health and embracing and promoting the benefits they bring to the UK economy, however, recent net migration data could cause pause for thought. Home Office figures show that net migration fell by 20% in the year to June 2024. Stricter rules for international students bringing their families to the UK have been cited for the drop. With Reform UK on the Labour Party’s shoulders for the first time ever in the polls, it means Labour, like the Conservative government before it, will not be immune to calls for further crackdowns.
Away from international students, the government has confirmed tuition fees will rise after universities called for financial support. However, with Universities UK arguing that funding per student would need to rise to £12,500 to meet universities’ tuition costs, the medium to long term funding pressures for many remain. The increase in employer National Insurance Contributions has not helped matters. The sector will also be feeling disappointed that the spending envelope for the DfE at the budget, which will increase by £11.2 billion up until 2026, focused on funding uplifts for schools and early years provision.
Despite an uncertain first few months for the sector regarding Labour’s plans, the next few months will be critical for determining its fortunes. A Comprehensive Spending Review in June will set out departmental budgets for the rest of this Parliament. Having missed out at the budget, the sector will be determined to have its voice represented and a slice of the cake.
The window of opportunity at the start of 2025 will demonstrate whether the government is committed to bringing forward meaningful policy, regulatory and funding reform that will put the sector on a more sustainable footing. Higher education providers should be doubling down on outlining the positive case universities have on shaping young minds and creating financial benefits for UK plc.
Angela Rayner has unveiled two flagship pieces of policy that will shake up planning policy and the local government architecture to get growth going. Senior Associate Sam Tankard takes a look at what impact this might have for businesses that operate in this sector.
Housing, planning and the local government system have long been identified by Keir Starmer’s Labour party as major constrictions on growth, and he has talked before about taking a “bulldozer” to the planning system. His Chancellor Rachel Reeves has also cited the desire to get Britain building as a key, and relatively low cost, lever to unlocking growth. Over the last week, we’ve seen the culmination of this with Angela Rayner, arguably one of the most powerful cabinet ministers, presenting her two-step solution to injecting impetus into councils and the wider built environment.
Backing the builders
The updated National Planning Policy Framework was published on 12 December and is seen as the key to unlocking 1.5 million new homes. The most significant change is to mandatory housing targets which will see many councils, particularly leafier constituencies and suburbs, deliver as many as 5 times the number of new homes per year than they currently are under Local Plans, as she calls on councils to all do their bit to meet their housing need, as the question is shifted to “where the homes and local services people expect are built, not whether they are built at all.”
The Government sees prioritising low quality “grey belt” as key to this housing mission and is supporting these new changes with £100m for extra planning officers to speed up and deal with bottlenecks in the system.
Tackling the blockers
The structure of councils has been long overdue a refresh and given how many of this Labour parliamentary party come from local authority backgrounds, it is no surprise to see a Labour Government bring forward a “devolution revolution”.
The English Devolution White Paper – which will form the basis of the English Devolution Bill in 2025 – proposes more powers for combined Authority Mayors who will receive new integrated funding settlements covering housing, growth, retrofit, transport and skills and employment as the Government wants to empower local leaders and shed Whitehall control. However, Rayner will still have increased call in powers if significant projects are not making necessary progress.
It is also clear the Government hopes this will deal with some of the inefficiencies in the way councils deliver public services and procure contract support, which will be welcome to businesses who support local authorities. As such, many two-tier council areas will be replaced by unitary authorities, where boundaries are hindering ability to deliver public services.
Growth unlocked?
Rayner will hope that these reforms will address the bureaucracy that Whitehall and local government process has burdened on public service and housing delivery, and help unlock the investment desperately needed across huge swathes of the built environment. If successful therefore, businesses operating at this intersection of housing and councils should take confidence that healthy opportunities are on the horizon. The next challenge will be where will all these builders and engineers come from…
GK Adviser Noureen Ahmed considers Labour’s approach to the early years sector and why it is so important for providers to engage with the government.
Earlier this month, the Prime Minister Keir Starmer outlined his ‘Plan for Change’ in which he set out the six metrics he would like to hit by the next election. This was an important moment for Starmer to demonstrate to voters that his government means business after a turbulent five months in office. Starmer’s education metric, to ensure 75 per cent of five-year-olds are school-ready, falls under the government’s mission to break down the barriers to opportunity. This is one of five missions Starmer set out prior to the election in which he promised to bolster opportunity for all through improvements to the education system.
Early years education has long been a priority for Labour, with Starmer’s education team having been incredibly vocal about the sector in opposition. Even though much of the initial focus has been on delivering the previous government’s early years reforms, notably the rollout of the extended childcare entitlement, the new government is clearly preparing the sector ahead of launching its own early years agenda, as laid out in Labour’s general election manifesto.
Whilst the spotlight on the sector has been welcomed, some immediate concerns have been expressed by sector leaders, including: whether the government’s schedule to roll out the final stage of its extended childcare entitlement to up to 30 hours go ahead as planned in September 2025, and if the government can deliver its additional pledges for the early years sector successfully over the course of this parliament.
The recruitment and retention crisis facing the early years sector is the biggest barrier impacting the delivery of the extended childcare entitlement. Difficulties attracting people to work in the early years sector, coupled with an exodus of staff, means it is unsurprising early years professionals are sceptical about whether the final rollout will go ahead as planned. The Department for Education’s (DfE’s) recent announcement that it will provide £75 million in grant funding to help childcare providers deliver the staff and places needed next year is positive and suggests that the government is determined to launch the final stage on time, despite these challenges.
There was also some welcome news at the October budget with the government announcing £15 million in investment to begin the delivery of 3,000 school-based nurseries by the end of this parliament. Schools currently have the opportunity to bid for up to £150,000 to either expand existing nurseries or open a new one, with the government hoping to open around 300 new or expanded nurseries by September 2025.
Education secretary Bridget Phillipson has reiterated government’s appetite to deliver more school-based nursery provision. Making use of unused classrooms in primary schools looks like a sensible policy approach. However, the government could find it difficult to meet the commitment’s short- and long-term targets. Getting enough schools on board with the scheme could prove difficult. Even though there may be capacity to utilise the free classroom spaces available, the infrastructure (both physical and logistical) needed to create and maintain nursery provision is very different to those needed for primary school pupils.
The Labour government is also realistic about the need for a model which includes both state-delivered provision via in-school nurseries and maintained nurseries and provision by the private voluntary and independent (PVI) sector in order to meet capacity demands. In regard to the latter, the government understands the importance of the PVI sector in delivering high-quality early years education and so will be keen to work with the sector to deliver much of its proposed in-school nursery provision.
Moreover, Ofsted has said it will work to support the government’s plans by making it easier for high-quality providers to set up and expand nurseries. The watchdog’s plan to streamline the registration process for providers as well review how it inspects and regulates multiple providers is laudable because it allows the sector the chance to continue meeting the demand for early years settings.
The government has made a big play that in total will see investment increase by over 30% compared to last year, all whilst happening amidst a bleak fiscal outlook. This political priority as the education secretary has acknowledged must be accompanied by reform to deliver a sustainable early education system. This will mean high quality providers demonstrating value for money and their ability to scale up provision. Those providers with a proven track record and an ambition for growth will find a receptive ear within DfE and No 10. With the next phase of rollout in 2025 and the comprehensive spending review in the spring setting out the funding for the remainder of this parliament, providers have no time to waste. They should prioritise engaging with government to position themselves as a partner in the next phase of reform, and to demonstrate the role they play in ensuring a successful delivery.
GK Senior Adviser James Allan considers the publication of the Food Security Report and why the opportunity is ripe to engage with ministers and officials holding the pen on the food strategy due for publication in 2025.
The government has published its three-yearly Food Security Report and it is hefty. Five themes covering 16 sub themes and 37 indicators ranging from food crime and pathogen surveillance to physical access to food shops and consumption patterns. Ministers had chosen to delay the publication of the report in hope of avoiding the farmers in protest against the £1m cap to Agriculture Property Relief introduced at the autumn budget. But this issue has not abated. Tractors returning to Westminster on the day of publication detracts from the business of government and its work to address food security.
The report’s headline finding is that those disadvantaged across society, including low-income households and people with a disability, are less likely to meet government dietary recommendations, and this trend has increased. All the while, the UK’s self-sufficiency has remained broadly unchanged in the past two decades, but the risks have heightened. The UK continues to source food from domestic production and trade at around a 60:40 ratio. But digging a little deeper, the UK is highly dependent on imports for fruits, vegetables and seafood – all sources of micronutrients essential to balanced and healthy diets in the fight against rising levels of obesity.
The risks to food security and self-sufficiency are numerous: climate change, nature loss, water insecurity, labour shortages and geopolitical events, the list goes on. More than this, these risks are interconnected with both acute and chronic impacts which trigger and compound each other. One can easily imagine a shortage of rice on British supermarket shelves if an extreme weather event, compounded by increased geo-political tensions, threatens the 46% of rice that is imported from India and Pakistan. At home, declining levels of natural capital are somewhat slowing, but boosting domestic production will mean prioritising and funding sustainable farming practices that restore and preserve our ecosystems to fully reverse this trend. Such schemes are not cheap for a government navigating tight public finances, as the second phase of a comprehensive spending review has kicked off with the Chancellor asking government departments to find 5% efficiency savings.
What’s new?
The government is set to adopt a “systems approach” which will focus minds on the outcomes of the whole system from production to consumption. Defra secretary Steve Reed is also promising a new way of engagement with not just sector and industry leaders, but also academics and charities to corral collective ambition, influence and effort. For food producers and retailers, this is a seismic opportunity to leverage your consumer and business story for a political audience that is in listening mode.
Pulling this off will be the test of ministers and officials drafting the government’s new food strategy due for publication in 2025. Why? Because if this Labour government is truly socially minded, addressing food insecurity will be a political priority. Doing so will aid better health and educational outcomes thereby reducing the burden on schools and the NHS, both of which are areas the Labour party self-identifies as being custodians of.
For investors, having a clear understanding government workstreams toward food security will be important. Investment decisions will need to be considered in the context of UK self-reliance in the food and energy sectors, but especially where technological innovation better position investors to capitalise on emerging trends, ensure long-term sustainable returns, and help shape a more secure and resilient national food system.
While spectators might eagerly await the publication of the government’s food strategy next year, the opportunity to engage is now.