Category Archives: Conservatives

Keir Starmer’s Nightmare – a look ahead to the May 7 elections

The UK is facing unprecedented electoral times. For the first time in British history, a party other than Labour or the Conservative Party has led in the polls for over 12 months. A governing party has never fallen in the opinion polls as fast or as heavily as the current Labour government. Fewer than two in five people say they would vote for Labour or the Conservatives, which has never happened before. To help us make sense of these seismic changes, esteemed political scientist and elections expert Sir John Curtice joined GK Strategy and our guests to explain the fundamental shifts that have taken place in electoral behaviour in the UK, and to unpack what this means for the upcoming elections on May 7.

On May 7, millions of people across the United Kingdom will go to the polls to vote in this important set of elections. Around 5000 seats across 136 local councils in England, which includes all the London borough councils, are up for grabs. Outside of England, Scotland and Wales will have parliamentary elections which will determine what party will run the devolved governments in Edinburgh and Cardiff. These elections are the biggest set of elections between now and the next general election, and the results will inevitably have a significant impact on politics and the standings of the current party leaders.

Curtice explained that British electoral attitudes have become highly fragmented, with the underlying shift being visible in the breakdown of traditional voting predictors. Historically, working-class and younger voters tended to support Labour, while middle- and upper-class and older voters leaned Conservative. However, his analysis of the 2024 general election showed that these relationships have largely collapsed. In their place, voting behaviour is increasingly structured around social values: whether individuals are socially liberal, and view diversity as something to be promoted, or socially conservative, and favouring greater cultural homogeneity.

This shift first became apparent during the Brexit referendum. While there was a relatively even split between economically left- and right-wing voters on whether to remain in or leave the EU, social attitudes were far more polarised: social liberals overwhelmingly supported Remain, while social conservatives backed Leave. Curtice argued that Brexit crystallised this realignment in British politics, with social values now serving as the strongest predictor of voting behaviour.

Looking to the elections on May 7 and the fate of the two main parties, Curtice laid out a grim picture for them both. He warned that the pro-Brexit coalition which delivered Boris Johnson’s victory in 2019 has now fractured, leaving the Conservative vote split almost evenly between Leave and Remain supporters. For Labour, the picture that Curtice painted is arguably worse, with its 2024 coalition fragmenting across the Green Party, Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats. Curtice argued that the driving factor behind this is that both the Green party and Reform UK have firmly chosen a side on the socially liberal–socially conservative divide, allowing them to reap the electoral rewards of modern Britain’s voting behaviour.

May 7 looks to be a dark night for Labour and the Conservative Party, with Curtice stating the night will either be “bad, very bad, or existential” for them both. Polling day could result in what Curtice described as “Keir Starmer’s Nightmare”: Labour coming third in Wales and Scotland, losing to Reform UK in working class councils, and the Green Party beating them in London. While he acknowledged the considerable uncertainty around the elections and their outcomes, Curtice argued that the two-party system is effectively dead. In its place, the first-past-the-post system that once enabled the Conservatives and Labour to dominate is now contributing to their decline. Sir John aptly captured it: “those who live by the sword can die by the sword.”

GK Strategy are experts in helping businesses and investors understand, navigate and influence the ever-changing political landscape. If you would like to talk about the impact of the local elections or the political landscape more generally, please contact scott@gkstrategy.com.

Conservative Party Conference 2025

GK’s Associate Director, Will Blackman, shares his take on the Conservative Conference.

This year’s Conservative Party conference – Kemi Badenoch’s first as party leader – was a major test for the party that has struggled to find its sense of direction after its catastrophic election defeat last year. Against a background of plummeting polling numbers, and criticism of what some see as Badenoch’s low energy and lethargical approach to the job, the opportunity was hers to lose. A successful conference was necessary to stabilise the ship and shore up her position, at least in the short term.

The conference began with a conveniently timed announcement of a new party policy – to leave the European Convention on Human Rights. Other headline grabbing announcements then followed; including a pledge to remove 750,000 illegal migrants, cutting overseas aid to 0.1% of gross national income, and £47bn of cuts to government spending, including welfare. These were preceded before the conference by a pledge to repeal the Climate Change Act 2008, which Badenoch said “tied us in red tape, loaded us with costs, and did nothing to cut global emissions”.

What these policies do tell us is that the Conservative Party has decided where it wants to focus its electoral energies. New policies that are thinly veiled replicas of longstanding Reform or Farage positions, including on migration, aid and net zero, are evidently not intended to appeal to so-called ‘blue wall’ voters that the party lost to disastrous effect to the Liberal Democrats at the last General Election. Instead, the so-called ‘red wall’, where Reform is increasingly at its strongest, it would seem is where the Conservatives want to apply their focus. How far this strategy can take the party, which continues to be out-polled by Reform by more than two-to-one, will be the defining story of the Conservative Party in this parliament, and of Badenoch’s leadership.

The conference itself was something of a mixed bag. Footfall was clearly significantly down on previous years, with reports of fringe events being cancelled and photos of a half empty conference hall on social media, all adding to the general sense of malaise. However, on the whole, shadow cabinet performances were fairly assured, with no major missteps or negative headlines. To that extent, the conference largely delivered what the party leadership needed it to.

The dog that didn’t bark during conference was further high-profile MP defections to Reform; much speculated about in recent weeks and hinted at by Nigel Farage himself following his own party’s conference. Whether it was ever true or if it was a case of cold feet, the Conservative leadership will have breathed a sigh of relief, at least for the moment.

Badenoch’s own speech on Wednesday was, on all accounts, a good performance. It won’t have escaped some people’s notice that many of her policy commitments appear to involve reversing policy decisions taken by the last Conservative government, with those on energy and net zero being the most obvious. Nevertheless, it was a speech that delivered the goods for now and received a strong reception from those in the hall. The announcement that a future Conservative government would abolish stamp duty will be music to the ears of many party members. However, with the prospect of a Conservative government taking office any time soon looking highly remote, the more interesting question will be whether the Labour government feels under pressure to make any moves of its own in this area between now and the next general election.

On balance, Badenoch has probably given just enough on policy and performance to see off any immediate threat to her position. However it remains the case that next year’s local elections will be the crunch electoral test for Badenoch’s leadership. Whilst some of the murmuring may fall away for now, without a significant positive change in the party’s polling position and as MPs grow increasingly concerned about losing their own seats, her longer-term future remains far from secure. Having only lost office last year, the Conservatives need more time for memories to fade on their record in office and to benefit from the failings of the Labour government. Unfortunately for Badenoch, with little discernible movement in the polls, time is not on her side.

Making the most of party conference season

GK Strategy is pleased to share its guide to effective engagement with policymakers during party conference season.

Insight from the GK team on making the most of party conferences can be accessed here: https://gkstrategy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Engaging-at-Party-Conference-Season-GK-Strategy-September-2025.pdf

Westminster in 2025: Policy Shifts and Political Risks

GK is delighted to present its ‘Westminster in 2025’ report which sets out the key policy shifts and political risks we are expecting to see over the coming 12 months.

The report can be accessed here: Westminster in 2025 – Policy Shifts and Political Risks

GK Strategy – General Election Update

General Election Results Briefing

The GK team reacts to the 2024 General Election results, with GK’s Strategic Advisers sharing their insights on Labour’s historic victory, and the implications for Sir Keir Starmer’s new government.

To read our briefing please click here.

Will Sunak’s Latest Reset Work?

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett examines the Prime Minister’s recent speech at Policy Exchange and whether he can address the Conservative Party’s declining fortunes.

Rishi Sunak turns his attention to security in bid to tackle Labour’s poll lead.

Following a dismal set of local election results and the high-profile defection of Dover MP Natalie Elphicke to Labour, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has attempted to reset the political agenda. He used his latest relaunch at Policy Exchange, a Conservative-friendly think tank, to portray himself as the best leader to guide the country through what he described as the “dangerous and transformational” years ahead.

References were made throughout to ensuring the UK’s security in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It was also telling that Sunak made a pitch to voters on the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence – an area where he will feel comfortable promoting his tech credentials against the Labour leader Keir Starmer, who is 17 years his senior.

It is not unusual for incumbent (and unpopular) governments to paint opposition parties as inexperienced and incapable at a time of potential national peril. Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown famously argued “this is no time for a novice” in the wake of the 2008 financial crash amid David Cameron’s growing popularity. However, to go for this tactic right at the start of a general election campaign does suggest Sunak’s No.10 operation is running out of levers to pull to tackle Starmer’s seemingly unassailable lead in the polls.

Sunak’s pivot into security marks a clear distinction from his previous attempts to put the Conservatives on the path to election victory. At the 2023 Conservative Party Conference, he tried to paint himself as the change candidate and separate himself from the then 13 years of Conservative rule. Sunak was subsequently forced to adopt a continuity-focused strategy and defend the Conservatives’ record in office following David Cameron’s return as Foreign Secretary later that year.

The extent to which Sunak’s latest reset will work will depend on whether the electorate is still listening. The Conservative Party can highlight its commitment to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, a pledge yet to be matched by Labour, who have adopted the looser definition of meeting the 2.5% figure “as soon as resources allow.” However, with Labour so far ahead in the polls and three changes of tack in less than a year, it does raise the prospect that the Prime Minister is trying to engage an electorate which is simply no longer interested in what the Conservatives have to offer.