Category Archives: Tech

Palantir, politics and the future of NHS data

Drawing on his experience as a health minister and chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, GK’s strategic advisor Steve Brine examines the debate over Palantir’s role in the NHS and argues that evidence of patient benefit, delivery risks and credible alternatives should guide ministers’ decisions. 

Senior Vice-President of Palantir UK Tom Watson is an old friend. We were in the Commons together for nine years and our paths crossed many times, not about health it must be said, but music, where we share a vision of creative sovereignty in the face of a powerful challenge from big tech.

Tom’s return to the political headlines was always likely to provoke a reaction but I was pleased to see him back; primarily because it means he once again had the all-clear in his battle with prostate cancer.

Back how? The former deputy leader of the Labour Party has joined American technology company Palantir as a senior vice-president. The appointment comes just as ministers approach a big decision about the company’s future role in the NHS.

Appearing recently on a BBC podcast, Tom warned against allowing what he called “mob rule” to determine government procurement decisions. His intervention was characteristically direct, but it raised a question that goes well beyond one company.

The bottom line is this: should our government allow political discomfort (justified or otherwise) with a supplier to override the practical interests of NHS patients?

At the heart of this debate is the NHS Federated Data Platform (FDP), a programme designed to connect information held across different parts of the health service, helping clinicians and managers make decisions about patient care, waiting lists and capacity.

In November 2023, a consortium led by Palantir secured a seven-year contract to deliver the FDP. Ministers now face a decision over a contractual break point in the early part of 2027.

Two parliamentary committees have recommended that the government take the option to break the contract and seek an alternative supplier.

And so, the search begins for compelling evidence that the existing arrangement is failing, or that a demonstrably better alternative exists, because in my experience the NHS cannot afford another technological false start.

Some NHS users have indeed complained about the technology itself. A British Medical Journal (BMJ) investigation published in July this year reported that NHS leaders had privately described aspects of the FDP as clunky and offering a poor user experience.

Having served as a health minister, and subsequently chaired the Health and Social Care Select Committee, I know how often the ambitions of NHS reform collide with the practical realities of delivery. The entire NHS Ten Year Plan is a case in point!

For decades, the NHS has struggled with fragmented information systems, inconsistent data and organisations unable to communicate with one another.

The consequences are not abstract. They mean operating theatres sitting underused while patients wait for treatment, unnecessary delays in discharging people from hospital, and clinicians spending time navigating disconnected systems.

The FDP was conceived to address precisely these challenges. It is not, as some commentary might suggest, a vast new database into which everyone’s medical records are poured. Rather, it provides a means of connecting and analysing information across existing systems, subject to governance and access controls.

The NHS does not need LESS intelligent use of data. It needs considerably MORE.

Indeed, the government’s wider ambitions for a modernised health service, including that Ten Year Plan, depend on greater use of artificial intelligence and a more joined-up approach to care.

Walking away from an established programme without a credible replacement risks repeating one of the NHS’s most frustrating habits: announcing transformation, beginning implementation and then changing direction.

Supporters of the FDP point to encouraging improvements. NHS England has reported increased theatre utilisation, more patients receiving procedures, improvements in cancer pathways and reductions in delayed hospital discharges.

But there is a necessary qualification.

Recent scrutiny, including by the Financial Times, has questioned whether some of the headline improvements can be directly attributed to the FDP. Some trusts have stopped using certain tools on the platform, and NHS England has acknowledged that improvements observed after the platform’s introduction do not automatically establish cause and effect.

That criticism deserves serious attention. But there is an important distinction between questioning the measurement of benefits and concluding that the technology has no value.

It is also striking that, unlike some previous NHS technology programmes, the FDP has not generated an overwhelming public backlash from the clinicians and operational staff expected to use it. There are complaints about usability and uneven adoption, certainly, but these sit alongside positive accounts from NHS organisations reporting practical improvements.

That is not proof of success, but neither is it the picture of an obviously failing system.

Incomplete evaluation is an argument for stronger scrutiny, not necessarily for abandoning a programme midway through implementation.

 

The politics of Palantir

Of course, much of the opposition to Palantir has little to do with such cold-eyed scrutiny of NHS operational performance.

The company’s American ownership, its co-founder Peter Thiel, and its work with defence, intelligence and immigration agencies have made it a lightning rod for political controversy.

These are matters on which people can hold sincerely different views, but we should be careful not to confuse opposition to a company’s activities elsewhere with evidence that its NHS contract is inappropriate or unsafe.

Palantir is not the owner of NHS patient data. It acts as a data processor, with NHS organisations retaining responsibility as data controllers.

The NHS relies extensively on international technology companies, pharmaceutical manufacturers, medical device suppliers and other private-sector partners. Their expertise is essential.

Surely the relevant test should be whether a supplier meets the necessary standards of security, effectiveness, accountability and value for money, not whether its founders hold political views with which some Labour MPs happen to disagree?

There are legitimate questions about supplier dependence and public trust, but they deserve to be distinguished from objections rooted primarily in political hostility towards the company.

Tom Watson’s intervention is interesting because it highlights an uncomfortable reality for government. Public procurement must operate within the law, but it must also serve the public interest.

In a recent conversation, someone described the FDP to me as a form of technological infrastructure that another supplier could, in theory, provide.

That is true, but it risks understating the complexity of what has been built. Palantir does not simply provide the cloud infrastructure on which the platform runs; its technology helps integrate data and supports the applications and operational workflows built around it.

There may well be credible alternatives, including other major international technology companies. But replacing the supplier is not necessarily the same as switching electricity providers. The government would need to establish what could be transferred, what would need rebuilding, how long that would take and at what cost.

And if the objective is greater technological sovereignty, replacing one American supplier with another hardly settles the argument.

 

Ministerial judgement

The government faces a difficult decision but, in my experience, the variables shift considerably when you’re making a political one rather than an operational one.

Palantir should be held rigorously to its contractual obligations, and the evidence of benefit must be strengthened. But – and this is my key point – the burden of proof should also apply to those advocating termination.

What would replace the existing platform? How quickly could an alternative supplier be brought in, and at what cost? What risks would that impose on patients, and would it deliver better results?

These are precisely the questions ministers must ask, and I am confident they are.

The wider lesson is that governments must resist the temptation to confuse a politically attractive announcement with successful public policy. Here I am less confident.

My instinct is that ministers should not exercise the February 2027 break clause unless the evidence presents a compelling case for doing so.

Ultimately, patients waiting for operations, cancer diagnoses or a safe discharge from hospital will not judge ministers by the ideological purity of their decisions.

They will judge them by whether the NHS is ‘fixed’.

View from the US: Wealth taxes and universal income

Erin Caddell of GK Strategy’s American partner Anchor Advisors unpacks the prospect of wealth taxes on ultra-high net worth individuals and universal basic income to address heightened scrutiny of wealth inequality in the US

Stunning rise in tech wealth reignites policy debate about U.S. income inequality

The dramatic increase in market capitalization among US-based AI and other tech-related companies in recent years, encapsulated by last week’s whopper IPO for SpaceX, is reinvigorating a long-running debate about income inequality in America. Proposals for redistributive policies, such as wealth taxes and universal basic income (UBI), are gaining a new currency in US state capitals and in Washington DC.

The wealth creation of the AI boom is staggering. The SpaceX IPO made founder Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. Following Musk, the next nine richest Americans have a collective net worth of $1.7 trillion according to Forbes. All but one of whom (Warren Buffett) is a tech co-founder. Americans for Tax Fairness, a tax advocacy group, estimated that the net worth of America’s roughly 1,000 billionaires has increased by $1.5 trillion in 2025 to $8.2 trillion. Much of the rise is being driven by AI’s boost to tech content and infrastructure providers (as well as the tax cuts approved by President Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress last year).

The achievements of the ultra-rich in harnessing the promise of the latest technology revolution have drawn the ire of everyday Americans grappling with high inflation, increased healthcare costs and the threat of jobs being displaced by AI. This shift in public sentiment is turning on its head an old adage that Americans do not support higher taxes on the wealthy because many believe they, too, will become rich one day in the land of opportunity. A YouGov poll released in January found that 59% of Americans surveyed agreed that the government should pursue policies that narrow the gap between the rich and poor, with a majority of those Republicans surveyed agreeing that the wealth gap is a big problem. Compare this to 1939, when a Fortune magazine poll found only 35% of Americans surveyed felt wealth should be redistributed through higher taxes on the rich.

Policymakers looking for support to address income inequality can point to evidence that the gap between rich and poor is even wider now than in the Gilded Age of the late 19th century when the technologies of the Industrial Revolution created the first cohort of the ultra-wealthy in America; and ultimately a backlash that led to the antitrust actions around the turn of the century, and later to establishment of the federal income tax in 1916.

Gabriel Zucman, a leading international scholar of wealth inequality, published a book in May with the wonderfully direct title ‘We Need to Tax Billionaires’. It found that the wealth of the top 0.0001% of the world’s richest families represented more than 16% of world GDP in 2025, up from 4% in 1910, and 3% in the mid-1980s.

The early skirmishes on the income-inequality debate are playing out in the American states, where public sentiment can be codified into policy more quickly than at the federal level. Earlier this year, the legislation in Washington state (home of Microsoft and Amazon) was passed and its governor signed a new 9.9% state tax on annual incomes above US$1 million. Massachusetts has levied a 4% surcharge on $1 million-plus earners since 2022. Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Michigan, New York and Rhode Island are considering similar measures.

California, the epicenter of both the AI revolution and worries about thousands of jobs being made obsolete by it, recently submitted enough signatures to place a ‘billionaires’ tax’ on the November 2026 ballot. The measure would impose a one-time 5% tax on California residents with net worth of greater than $1bn, a move projected to raise US$100 billion to fund healthcare, education and food assistance. The initiative has already roiled the state and potentially national politics. California Governor, and likely 2028 Democratic presidential candidate Gavin Newsom, has opposed the measure, arguing it would hurt the state’s tech industry. Labor unions that initiated the proposal are considering a compromise to lower the proposed tax to 2%.

Universal basic income (UBI) is the flip side of the wealth tax. Dating back centuries, UBI intends to provide a modest but unconditional income to all citizens of a society to recognize the dignity and value of each person and to share the benefits of a nation’s bounty. The idea has gained new currency amidst renewed concern in recent years about displacement of workers by technology. Twitter founder Jack Dorsey gave $15 million to a group called the Mayors for a Guaranteed Income to divide into a series of UBI pilot programs. UBI pilots have been launched in recent years in cities including Stockton, California; Durham, North Carolina; and Baltimore, Maryland.

With Trump and the GOP focused on lowering taxes rather than raising them, wealth levies and UBI programs are non-starters at the federal level now. This could change. Democrats are making income inequality a key plank in their campaign for the November midterm elections. Should Democrats win back the White House and gain control of both houses of Congress in 2028 (as Biden and his party did in 2020), they would likely consider wealth-tax proposals already circulating among party leaders. The ‘Billionaires’ Income Tax’ bill proposed in September 2025, for instance, would subject individual taxpayers with assets of greater than US$1 billion or annual income of more than $100 million a year for three consecutive years to an annual tax based on the net gain of their assets (or to deduct the losses). The bill was proposed in the Senate by Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR), a leading voice in Democratic tax policy, and co-sponsored by 20 Democratic Senators.

While UBI has less support at the federal level than wealth taxes, UBI could also gain favor in a Democrat-controlled White House, Senate and House. In October 2025, a dozen Democratic House members led by Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ) introduced the Guaranteed Income Pilot Program Act, which would provide income equivalent to rent for a two-bedroom apartment for an initial test group of 20,000 Americans. Even Musk himself has become a proponent of UBI, posting on X in April that ‘Universal HIGH INCOME via checks issued by the Federal government is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI’.

Individual federal income-tax rates have declined in the US from 91% in 1955 (a vestige of increases to help pay for World War II) to 37% in 2025, while capital-gains taxes have held around 25% over the past decade, according to the Peterson Foundation (see below). Not coincidentally, the entrepreneur has risen in the eyes of the American public during this period, as the ’Organization Man’ archetype of the loyal cog in the paternalistic corporation gave way to the us-against-the-world mindset of the U.S. tech industry, best symbolized by the foundings of Apple and Microsoft in the mid-1970s.

Through the commercialization of the internet in the mid-1990s, to the rise of social media 20 years later, to the acceleration of generative AI with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, technology has become ever-more central to the U.S. economy and society. Yet the widening gap between the few at the top and the rest below seems to have driven a policy tipping point. With the federal deficit at 6% of GDP, the highest in U.S. history outside of war and the covid-19 pandemic, and individual tax receipts the largest source of federal revenue at 50%, it seems a question of when, not if U.S. policymakers will have to consider raising taxes. The ultra-wealthy are an easy target as part of such an effort. At the same time, pressure to distribute more of the benefits of the tech boom to the rank-and-file who bear its brunt also seems poised to continue to rise through increased support for UBI, as well as for higher standard deductions for federal income taxes, as multiple progressive policymakers have proposed recently.

What does this mean for US-focused investors and corporates?

We do not profess to be able to predict when or by how much tax rates on wealthy Americans will rise. But we do see several downstream effects impacting US-centric companies and their owners from the increased focus on income inequality.

First, a redistributive shift in the tax system would be positive for firms that help individuals and small businesses prepare their income taxes (yes, including those who assist wealthy people in looking for ways to pay less in tax), as well as the many companies that provide services to the tax-preparation industry itself.

Second, companies and investors should be more prepared to view their actions in the U.S. through a more populist lens and to delineate the benefits of their products and services beyond the limited traditional corporate stakeholders of shareholders, customers and employees. Take data centers. In recent years, the tech firms developing the data centers powering the AI boom, led by the multi-billionaires highlighted above, believed the substantial tax revenue they planned to bring to mostly rural or suburban communities where data centers are located would be enough to win support from local citizens. With many local governments across the political spectrum working to halt data-center construction due to concerns about resource utilization and quality of life, developers must take a more holistic approach, thinking through ways to offset the centers’ electricity and water usage; expanding efforts to reduce noise and other potential environmental impacts; and partnering with impacted communities to share in the benefits of the center’s economic activity beyond just paying a tax bill.

Third, should UBI proposals gain further support at the state or federal level, it would help providers of affordable housing, an industry already under the spotlight at the federal and state level as many regions of the U.S. deal with housing affordability issues and shortages.

Whatever the outcome of these and similar debates, income inequality and policies to address it are sure to occupy a larger place in the U.S. policy landscape in years to come.

 

Social media: how the government is trying to regulate an industry that moves faster than itself

The Online Safety Act 2023 was hailed by the then Conservative government as a world-leading piece of legislation that would protect children and adults online. The act places new responsibilities on technology and social media platforms to protect users from harmful content, particularly children, and grants Ofcom extensive enforcement powers, including the ability to levy fines of up to 10% of global annual revenue for non-compliance. The legislation was designed to create a safer and more age-appropriate online environment without fundamentally restricting access to digital platforms.

Less than three years later, the Online Safety Act has proven to be already out of date, leading to new policies exploring an outright ban of social media sites for under 16s. The political debate has shifted from regulating content to regulating access itself.

Australia took the first leap, being the first major democracy to announce its own social media ban for under 16s in December 2025. Since then, the debate in Westminster has not dissipated. A UK-wide ban has been endorsed across the political spectrum, with proponents including over 60 Labour MPs, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch and London Mayor Sadiq Khan.

The government has so far taken incremental steps to more stringently regulate access to sites ahead of potentially endorsing an outright social media ban. A crackdown on phones in schools was pursued in 2024, and the 2025 Violence Against Women and Girls strategy included measures to prevent school-aged boys developing harmful misogynistic attitudes – which the government believes has largely been driven by online content. In early June 2026, the Prime Minister also announced a new requirement for tech companies to devise technological solutions that can detect and block children seeing or sharing indecent images. This announcement followed only a few weeks after safeguarding minister Jess Phillips resigned from government, criticising the Prime Minister’s inaction and delay on this very matter.

No piecemeal policy interventions have yet delivered enough protections for parents, teachers and policymakers to feel that young people are safe online. This has paved the way for a government consultation in early 2026 testing the waters on age restrictions for social media. The consultation, which the government is due to provide a full response to this summer, proposed removing or limiting addictive features such as ‘infinite scrolling’ and introducing a minimum age for social media access.

For social media companies, technology platforms, advertisers and organisations that rely on digital engagement with younger audiences, the policy implications are significant. Potential further restrictions on access, platform functionality or age verification requirements would have commercial, operational and regulatory consequences across the digital ecosystem. Businesses should also expect growing scrutiny of recommendation algorithms and engagement-driven design features, as well as the effectiveness of existing safeguarding measures.

This is a political argument that is leading down one path – and that is on the side of restrictions on children’s access to social media.

The government’s hesitancy to invoke such an interventionist ban is likely to come under growing pressure from politicians from across the political spectrum who are eager to introduce greater protections for children online, including through new age restrictions. The government cannot afford to weather another scandal in this area. The direction of travel appears clear, but the details remain up for debate. Organisations with a stake in the outcome should ensure their voice is part of the conversation, helping to shape a regulatory framework that is both effective and proportionate, and that properly reflects the practical, commercial and technical implications of impending policy change.

GK & Anchor Policy Spotlight: Emerging Regulatory Markets

The next decade and beyond will be defined by global challenges ranging from climate change and food security to geopolitical instability and competition for resources. Governments around the world will be forced to address these at pace, but many of the solutions will depend on technological advances and scientific discoveries that are only just emerging.

Curiosity has always been in GK’s DNA and over the last year we have dedicated considerable time to understanding and engaging with the emerging industrial sectors of the future. Ranging from technological developments in already highly regulated sectors to the sectors that are just emerging as future economic powerhouses, GK has put them under the microscope to unpick the political, policy and regulatory opportunities and challenges on the horizon.

This report is an introduction of that thinking to you. We know our investment community is keen to understand the risks and opportunities in these spaces to stay ahead of competitors in origination strategies, and most importantly, to invest for the future. With the decades of combined experience that informs our counsel, we pride ourselves on seeing the things that others don’t. Our team of consultants in the UK, Europe and the US is uniquely positioned to give a truly global perspective on understanding and growing the future sectors of the global economy.

Beyond the battlefield: Britain’s drone strategy as a lever for economic growth

Lessons from the battlefields of Ukraine, combined with rapid technological innovation, have pushed drones firmly into the centre of UK defence policy. Yet, the implications of this shift extend far beyond military capability and the defence sector. By scaling domestic manufacturing and considering drone technology within wider growth strategies, there is potential to unlock growth across many sectors in the UK economy.

The pace of technological development seen in Ukraine has demonstrated how quickly drone capability can evolve when innovation is tested under real-world conditions. Low-cost drones, AI-driven autonomous systems, and advanced first-person view drones have challenged traditional defence strategies. For the UK, this has underscored the importance of building domestic drone capability to enhance national security.

To build these capabilities, the Ministry of Defence’s 2024 Defence Drone Strategy and 2025 Defence Industrial Strategy set out a vision that includes drones as a central component of military capability. This has been reinforced by the 2025 Strategic Defence Review, in which the government recognised that drones will be central to future conflicts and outlines its ambition to support innovation and growth in the drones sector.

For defence contractors, the implications are immediate. The government’s desire to deliver progress at pace on these strategies means that businesses that can demonstrate resilient and tested technologies are positioned to win contracts. However, the effects of this industrial strategy will be felt far beyond defence, with these moves creating large spillover effects to the civilian drone market.  Defence procurement can help firms scale production, de-risk investment, and move more quickly into civilian markets. In addition, many of the technologies that are useful as defence capabilities will assist in commercial settings. For instance, advanced first-person view drones will allow drones to be used more easily for law enforcement and infrastructure inspection. Counter-drone technologies also have clear commercial value, Systems developed to detect and neutralise hostile drones can be deployed to protect airports, prisons, critical national infrastructure, and other sensitive sites.

Together, these applications illustrate how defence-led innovation can unlock the sector’s wider economic potential – estimated by government-commissioned analysis to reach up to £103 billion by 2050, as we highlighted in our recent article. This demonstrates the scale of the commercial opportunities now emerging for businesses and investors, as technologies initially developed for defence are increasingly able to scale into regulated civilian markets, supported by a growing ambition within government to be a world-leader in drone technology.

However, despite this opportunity, risks remain. Defence procurement is politically sensitive and shifts in budget priorities over the course of a parliament could constrain investment. This means that businesses must continue to engage with government to reduce regulatory barriers to create a favourable regulatory environment. Businesses who engage with the government’s existing work on regulatory innovation and help government understand where other challenges exist will reap the benefits of the UK’s focus on the drones sector.

If you’d like to discuss the drones sector and related policy in more detail, please reach out to Jacob on Jacob.walsh@gkstrategy.com

Cleared for take-off? The policies shaping the UK drone industry

The government has set itself the ambitious goal for becoming the fastest growing economy in the G7. This lofty ambition sits at the heart of the government’s agenda and is central to its industrial strategy – a 10-year plan to increase business investment in the industries of the future. The drones sector has been identified as a frontier industry, with the government clearing a flightpath for the UK to be a world leader in drone innovation and technologies.

Driving this move is the extraordinary economic potential of drones. A recent PwC report states that the sector could contribute £45 billion to the UK economy and support 650,000 jobs by 2030. Further analysis undertaken by Frazer-Nash consultancy for the government suggests that with public support and a shared strategy and ambition between government and industry, the sector could have contributed £103 billion by 2050. Together, these findings demonstrate how collaboration between government and industry can lead to a thriving drones sector which can drive growth and innovation across the UK.

Regulatory challenges

For this growth to be unlocked, the government must work to address regulatory challenges that constrain innovation. Across government, companies face a range of overlapping rules that can slow commercial deployment and limit investment. One of the largest constraints on the sector is the requirement to keep the drone within the line of sight of the operator. Additional health and safety regulations enforced by the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) also prohibit drones being flown within a 50m radius of people. This constrains the range of operations drones can perform, limiting their use in many areas such as delivery, infrastructure inspection, and large-scale surveying, particularly in urban areas.

The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) also limits the growth of drones operating in the agricultural sector, with the HSE requiring companies to get approval for almost all aerial spraying. The HSE states that there is a 52-week processing time for drone applications, which will inevitably undermine the innovation and adoption of drones in the agricultural sector.

All these affected areas are where drone technology offers incredible commercial potential, so overcoming these regulatory barriers will be key for businesses looking to unlock growth in the drones sector.

These challenges are not insurmountable and government and industry collaboration is already underway to tackle them. The Regulatory Innovation Office (RIO) is leading a series of pro-innovation reforms for the drones sector, including the introduction of a single, standard risk assessment process to cut approval times for complex drone operations. They are also working on expanding the CAA’s atypical air environment policy, which enables the use of drones Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS), with the ROI providing £8.9 million in funding for innovative projects that will test the effects of new BVLOS standards. The ROI has also worked with the HSE to make it legal for drones to spray slug pellets, which is a major step forward for agricultural drones businesses.

Public concerns

Drones businesses also face challenges of public perception. The research done by Frazer-Nash consultancy estimated that without public support, the size of the sector will be £65 billion by 2050. That represents a £38 billion reduction in the sector compared to the scenario with public support. Given the incredible economic value that lies in public support, addressing public concerns, such as the use of drones for criminal activities, are of great importance to the sector and government to ensure businesses reach their full potential.

The government is already thinking about innovative solutions to the public perception challenge. In November 2025, the government launched a technology challenge which will encourage industry to develop innovative systems capable of detecting drones designed by criminals to evade current detection methods. If successful, this challenge will help the government intercept drugs being delivered by drones into prisons.

The government’s willingness to cut red tape and find innovative solutions to the challenges facing the sector creates opportunity for the sector. However, it remains essential for companies to engage with the government, both to push further on reducing overly prohibitive regulation and to address public concerns surrounding drone safety. By doing so, businesses can play a central role in shaping a regulatory landscape that supports innovation, builds public trust, and cements the UK’s position as a global leader in drone technology.

If you’d like to discuss drones and the wider political landscape in more detail, please reach out to Jacob on Jacob.walsh@gkstrategy.com