Monthly Archives: November 2023

GK Point of View – Reflections on the Autumn Statement

On Wednesday 22^nd November, Jeremy Hunt MP unveiled his Autumn Statement, setting out the Government’s tax and spending commitments for the next year. The backdrop to this year’s Autumn Statement presents a number of challenges for a government with likely less than a year until the next General Election. The UK’s inflation rate stands at 4.6%, more than double the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Growth rates have stalled, and the Bank of England is predicting that the UK will see zero growth until 2025.

To better understand the true impact of the decisions in the Autumn Statement and how they will impact both the wider economy, and specific sectors, GK Strategy have developed a briefing containing sector specific insight and analysis from our Senior and Strategic Advisers.

Find GK’s briefing here: Autumn Statement 2023

Is Sunak trying to bring the Tories back to the centre? Reflections on Rishi’s latest reshuffle.

After the polarising figures of Truss, Johnson and most recently Braverman, Sunak is using his latest reshuffle to resist the Conservative Party’s attempt to shift to the right. By bringing more centrist political figures into the fold, he looks to prepare his government to fight Labour over the centre ground at the next election. And it’s all encapsulated in the appointment of one man…

The eventual sacking of Home Secretary Suella Braverman today has finally given Sunak the political space to undertake the long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle which sees him shed some of the legacy Cabinet members inherited from the Liz Truss cabinet like Therese Coffey and bring in more centrist political figures and Sunak allies into senior government jobs. Even if it has come perhaps a month sooner than Sunak might have wanted.

One of the clearest articulations of this, is the appointment of David Cameron. The former Prime Minister from 2010 to 2016 replaces James Cleverly (who moves to Home Secretary) as Foreign Secretary, despite being out of (frontline) politics for seven years. The move makes a lot of sense from a policy perspective. Bringing back an electorally popular PM, and experienced on the world stage, Sunak will hope Cameron plays a key and senior role in managing the tense situation in Israel-Gaza. However, domestically his appointment – together with the promotion of several special advisers and former ministers who worked during the Cameron and May governments, like Laura Trott and Richard Holden – is signalling to the country that the Party is, if not just presentationally, moving back to the centre ground.

If the Conservatives are staring down the barrel of huge electoral defeat at the next election, it makes sense to shift to a strategy of shoring up the base and minimise damage, from a pragmatic perspective. This means focusing on the Blue Wall seats and those who voted Conservative before Brexit will be amongst those most skittish at the next election, and most at risk of offering their vote to the Lib Dems or Labour. They may have voted for Johnson because there was no alternative, saw the chaos of Liz Truss, and are now perhaps uncomfortable with the direction and tone of the Party led from the likes of Braverman. That is of course not to say that there won’t still be a strong policy approach on home affairs like immigration, but presentationally, the approach from Cleverly will be far more palatable to No.10 than what we have seen from Braverman.

Therefore, seeing the likes of Cameron return will give them a feeling that the Party is back to the one they know. This is not without risk, given his close association with Brexit amongst many middle of the road and remainer voters, but it must be said that Brexit has crashed out of the top issues for voters.

This puts Sunak back in the position to appeal to the electoral centre ground that has been increasingly under attack by Labour in recent months, and will make the Autumn Statement all the more important, as he will want to demonstrate that this is a team ready for the long-term. Even if it is a rather damning indictment on the quality in the parliamentary party, not on least many 2019-ers, who will largely feel overlooked if they don’t sit in this wing of the party.

However, with Cameron and Hunt in Great Offices of State, and ministerial ranks filled with coalition era ministers and former SpAds, it will certainly make Rishi’s approach as the ‘change candidate’ against Keir Starmer all the more difficult. Instead, it feels like Sunak is perhaps going to lean more into the ‘better the devil you know’ message, despite continuing to talk about fresh ideas for the long term.

Perhaps this latest Rishi Reset is the one to shift the dial? Or perhaps, more likely, it is the sign of a government that has run out of road and ideas.

The King’s Speech

Conservative Party shapes political battlegrounds in bid to turn around polling deficit

The first King’s Speech by Charles III and the last before a General Election was noteworthy not for the 21 Bills announced, which will shape the upcoming legislative agenda, but what it revealed politically. Whilst in the short-term today’s ceremony is unlikely to move the dial, it did reveal the foundations upon which the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party will seek to fight the election upon.

The overarching theme was the Government’s commitment to reducing inflation and bringing down the cost of living. The language that accompanied this was ‘making decisions in the long-term interest.’ This is fundamental to the Conservative Party strategy. By next Autumn (the most likely timing for the General Election) household costs will have stabilised and the Party will say to the electorate that they are on the right track and now is not the time to change course. Expect the phrase ‘long term interest’ to feature even more prominently as we look ahead to the Autumn Statement later this month. In the most recent YouGov poll of the most important issues facing the country unsurprisingly the economy is far out in front of the public’s most pressing concerns.

Within the King’s Speech were numerous Bills related to law and order. This is an area of traditional strength for the Conservative Party, however, in recent times the Party has fallen behind Labour on the issue. The recent demonstrations in London and the potential for further action ahead of Armistice Day, the Conservative political machine may see this as an opportunity to push for a hard line approach that they believe will sit well with the majority of voters. The Economic Activities of Public Bodies Bill, which is designed to give ministers the powers to ban public bodies from imposing their own boycotts, divestment or sanctions campaigns against foreign countries is likely to be a focal point in this debate designed to further expose divisions within the Labour Party on conflicts such as Israel-Palestine.

The other major focus area, which wasn’t included as a Bill but was referenced by The King as a priority area for the Government is on the topic of immigration. The King said the Government would continue to crackdown on criminal gangs and control the boats crossing the Channel with the powers conferred to ministers in the previous Parliament. With almost 4 in 10 voters citing immigration as a top three issue the Government is determined that its efforts remain front of mind of voters.

So, with the pitfalls for Labour clear, how can the Party respond? Under the Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves we will continue to ensure fiscal discipline is the priority. By demonstrating a firm grip on public spending and fully costed policies, Reeves will hope to build up enough credibility that when she asks voters ‘do you feel better off after a Conservative government’ the reply will not only be ‘no’, but an electorate confident in voting for a reformed Labour Party. The Party will also feel they are on the right side of the argument when it comes to the transition to Net Zero with regards to the forthcoming Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill, claiming the Government is failing to show leadership and is presiding over a period of ‘dither and delay’.

Labour are also likely to capitalise on the lack of health announcements in the speech despite the policy area trailing only behind the economy in voters concerns. Despite a bill promising to ban the sale of smoking to anyone born on or after 1st January 2009, there were no mentions of NHS reforms or bringing down waiting lists. Perhaps an acknowledgement that the Conservative Party have for now conceded on the issue.

The battle lines have been drawn. Today is the firing gun on the debates in Parliament and the media that are likely to play out between now and the election as the parties vie for your vote.

What can organisations looking to engage in the political process take from this? It is far less about the potential impact of these measures, which may or may not pass, but a guide to how you can align your organisation with the political agenda to ensure your voice is heard and to begin to positively influence the shape of the next Parliamentary session.

For more details on the State Opening of Parliament and the new session, speak to GK Associate Director, David Mitchell david.mitchell@gkstrategy.com