Burnham’s Gamble: The Contest That Could Decide Britain’s Next Prime Minister

Andy Burnham’s intention to make a return to parliament has been clear for a number of years, despite assurances – until recently – that he was focused on his role as mayor of Greater Manchester. Following disastrous local election results for Labour and subsequent calls from Labour MPs for Keir Starmer to resign, Burnham’s opportunity has finally arrived. Josh Simons MP resigned earlier this month to allow Burnham to stand for election in the constituency of Makerfield. Unlike the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year — where Burnham sought to run but was blocked by the Labour Party’s National Executive Committee — the NEC has allowed Burnham to stand, and the Prime Minister has made no apparent attempt to prevent it. This shift reflects the severe weakening of Starmer’s authority amongst the parliamentary Labour Party, with almost 100 Labour MPs calling for his resignation in the aftermath of the local elections.

This is a hugely consequential by-election that is highly likely to determine the future of this Labour government. If Burnham wins, he is widely expected to challenge Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party and his position as Prime Minister. If he loses, questions around Starmer’s leadership are likely to persist, though the path forward becomes far less clear. Other prominent figures, such as former health secretary, Wes Streeting, or former deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, are likely to emerge as challengers, but in that scenario Starmer could remain in office for longer despite his weakened position.

The main challenger to Labour in Makerfield is Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Reform UK’s candidate Robert Kenyon is a local plumber who contested the constituency for Reform UK at the 2024 general election. The contrast between the two candidates is stark: Andy Burnham has spent almost his entire working life in frontline politics and is widely seen as having leadership ambitions, while Kenyon is positioning himself as a local, political outsider. While Reform UK may have hoped that Kenyon’s local profile would resonate with voters, particularly when contrasted with Burnham’s national political ambitions, it is Burnham’s strong personal popularity as mayor of Greater Manchester that is likely to bolster his performance. If Labour had selected any other candidate, Reform UK would almost certainly win this by-election as Makerfield is the 29^th most easily winnable seat for Reform UK, based on the swing required from the 2024 general election for the party to win the seat.

With Burnham in the running, the result is expected to be extremely close between Labour and Reform UK. The first constituency poll shows Burnham leading Reform by just three percentage points, underlining how competitive the race is going to be. The outcome may ultimately depend on where smaller-party voters choose to lend their support, if they choose to do so at all. Labour will hope to attract tactical backing from voters who would otherwise support the Liberal Democrats or the Green Party, while Reform UK will seek to consolidate support on the right from voters considering Restore Britain. The growing momentum behind Restore Britain’s campaign also threatens to split the right wing vote if would be Reform UK voters switch their vote to Restore Britain, which could deny Reform UK a victory. Restore Britain was established as a right-wing challenge to Reform UK by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, who left the party following a dispute with Nigel Farage over policy. Currently, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are collectively polling at 7%. The same figure as Restore Britain. This means even relatively small shifts through tactical voting could determine the outcome of the by-election contest.

Another factor that may shift the result is the media scrutiny surrounding Kenyon’s social media posts and the numerous Reform UK councillors that have stood down since the local elections on 7 May. If these issues resonate with voters, it could become a significant issue in the campaign and may bolster Labour’s chances in this highly competitive election.

The key issues on which the byelection is being fought have also presented risks for Burnham’s campaign. Burnham has already started to change tack on several policy issues in a bid to make himself more attractive to voters in the Makerfield constituency. For example, in an attempt to neutralise Reform UK’s attacks on his previous position that the UK should rejoin the EU, Burnham has stated that he will not reopen the Brexit debate. He has also agreed to maintain the government’s existing fiscal rules, despite having previously questioned them. . For businesses and investors, this points towards the possibility that a Burnham government may pursue a policy agenda that is broadly similar to the current government than Burnham would like to explicitly admit. These U-turns in fundamental policy areas may risk Burnham appearing the same as Starmer: a politician that changes their stance at the first sign of opposition. If Reform UK can capitalise on this, it may undermine Burnham’s attempt to present himself as a fundamentally different kind of Labour leader and weaken the electoral advantage that currently makes him such a significant political threat to both Starmer and Farage.

If Burnham achieves victory in a seat that would almost certainly be won by Reform UK against any other Labour candidate, it will be politically significant beyond the by-election itself. A win would allow Burnham to argue that he has the electoral appeal needed to reverse Reform UK’s lead in the national opinion polls and could persuade Labour MPs that he can address many of the government’s political and electoral problems. If Burnham wins, this makes it likely that he would be able to gain nominations from the 81 MPs required to trigger a leadership challenge, with many Labour MPs potentially concluding that he is the person who is most capable of stopping Reform UK from winning the next general election. With polling of Labour members showing that Burnham would beat any other contender for leader, this may mean that success in the by-election paves a path for Burnham to be the next Prime Minister. If Burnham fails to be elected, however, those same polls show that Starmer would beat a number of other candidates in a head-to-head election for the Labour leadership, including Wes Streeting.

The importance of this by-election cannot be overstated. It creates the conditions for Burnham to become Prime Minister, but also for Starmer to remain in position, having seen off other potential challengers.   It is vital for businesses and investors to begin thinking now about how a future Burnham-led government may affect them and to consider how existing policy agendas could continue to be developed by a weakened Starmer administration.

If you would like to talk more about the outcome of the by-election or the potential of a Burnham-led government, please email jacob.walsh@gkstrategy.com.