Category Archives: Labour

Labour and Gender Equality: A Radical Agenda or All Talk?

Following International Women’s Day earlier in March, GK Adviser Rebecca McMahon looks at what an incoming Labour Government could mean for women’s equality.

Labour’s ambitious women’s equality agenda is one to watch

If the Labour Party wins the upcoming General Election, Rachel Reeves will become the UK’s first female Chancellor of the Exchequer and Angela Rayner is set to become the first female Deputy Prime Minister. The number of women in the current Parliamentary Labour Party is at an all-time high of 52.7% and given the number of prospective parliamentary candidates in seats likely to swing to Labour, the number is likely to remain high.

The party has been accused of hollowing out promises related to more radical policies about climate change and workers’ rights. However, it appears the party remains committed to delivering on its ambitious roster of pledges on women’s equality. At the 2023 Labour Party Conference, Rayner announced her intention to amend the Equalities Act to introduce a legal duty for employers to have sexual harassment prevention measures in place. In Rayner’s rallying speech, she combined a commitment to women’s safety with a promise to make their working lives fairer. Measures included toughening sentences for perpetrators of rape and stalking and halving the levels of violence against women and girls. A crackdown on unfair pay and a promise to “empower women entrepreneurs” was also included.

Translating virtuous ideas on empowerment into robust policy is a difficult process. However, the presence of key female decision-makers in the shadow cabinet demonstrates that Labour is not neglecting the importance of senior women for formulating representative policy. Perhaps this will set a precedent for the party to elect a woman to the top spot for the first time (one area in which the Conservatives currently top the tables, 3-0!).

Reflections on the Future of Council Tax

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett assesses the likelihood of council tax reform amid rising concern about local authority financial resilience.

Is council tax reform on the horizon?

Amid rising bankruptcies in recent years, and growing concern about the sustainability of council finances, funding mechanisms for local authorities – and particularly council tax – are attracting growing political scrutiny.

In December 2023, the Local Government Association reported that almost one in five council leaders and chief executives it surveyed think it is very or fairly likely that they will need to issue a Section 114 notice this year or next due to a lack of funding. A Section 114 notice is issued by a council’s finance officer if they believe the council’s expenditure will exceed the resources it has available. Eleven Section 114 notices have been issued since 2018, with only five issued in the 30 years prior.

Given that council tax receipts now make up over half of local authority spending power (56.9% in 2023-24 compared to 49.1% in 2015-16), ensuring the council tax regime is operating effectively is critical to the long-term sustainability of local authority finances.

The Levelling Up Committee recently made a series of recommendations to the Government on council tax reform. In its report, the Committee reiterated its previous conclusions about the “unfairness and outdatedness of the council tax regime”.

The Government has since said it has no plans to conduct a revaluation of council tax bands (the Committee’s key recommendation) as, amongst other factors, “it would particularly risk those on a lower income, including pensioners, who have seen their homes appreciate in value”.

Here is the focal point of political discourse. A Conservative Government, aware that (according to recent YouGov polling) the Party is now the most popular only among the over-70s, will be aggrieved to conduct a revaluation of property bands which would hit the pockets of its core voter base. A Labour government on the other hand, with traditionally greater allegiances to younger, non-home owning voters and those on lower incomes could take a fresh look at this issue. One option likely to be under consideration is the introduction of new, higher bands of council tax.

Given the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has ruled out numerous tax rises ahead of the upcoming General Election, council tax reform represents one revenue-raising lever still available to her. While the details of any potential reform are still unknown, it is a near certainty that the council tax regime will only grow in political salience in the years ahead.

GK Point of View – View from Westminster

GK Associate, Joshua Owolabi, assesses Rishi Sunak and Keir Stramer’s recent struggles with rogue MPs.

Internal strife muddying the waters for both the Conservatives and Labour

Former Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, joked frequently about the frenetic pace at which politics could move. Over his long career, he became well-acquainted with the turbulence that intra-party politicking could bring. Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak may be able to relate. Clearly, the last few weeks have been taxing for them both as they struggle to deal with internal conflicts.

There has been scant opportunity for Starmer to enjoy the emphatic byelection result in Wellingborough, where the Labour Party overturned a Conservative majority of over 18,000 votes. It doesn’t matter that only a fortnight ago Starmer led his party to its largest swing in a byelection since 1994. Since then, the Labour Party has needed to clamp down on grassroots dissent over the decision to withdraw support for its Rochdale byelection candidate, Azhar Ali. Days later, Starmer was scrambling to avoid a rebellion and the potential resignation of Shadow Ministers, after the SNP brought forward an opposition day motion on the war in Gaza.

The Prime Minister has been blindsided yet again by some of the more outspoken Tory MPs. Lee Anderson, who had been Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party as recently as January, had the whip suspended following his incendiary remarks about the Mayor of London. Various Tory MPs have either defended or criticised Anderson since his outburst. Sunak has attempted to placate both sides, calling Anderson’s comments ‘wrong’ while also refusing to label them as ‘Islamophobic’.

However, Anderson doubling down on the comments has left Sunak with a problem to solve. Can he deal with the Anderson situation in a way that keeps the right-wing of his party happy, but also heeds the calls from ‘One Nation’ MPs for Anderson to be disciplined? Unfortunately for the Prime Minister, the answer to that question seems obvious.

Meanwhile. a speech from Sunak’s predecessor elicited the response “err… who is Liz Truss?” from a perplexed American audience at a conservative political conference in Maryland. Despite the criticism that Truss’ speech has received, Sunak will be concerned by her decision to lean into conspiracy theories about the ‘deep state’ and her call for Nigel Farage to rejoin the Party. Along with the Lee Anderson headlines, it highlights the way in which Sunak is struggling to control the narrative.

As Tory factions battle each other for control after the election and the Labour leadership works to limit self-inflicted wounds before it, the approaching Spring Budget hasn’t received much attention. Sunak, Starmer, Hunt and Reeves will need their MPs to get back on message as they set out their economic visions. They’ll be hoping that the infighting of February gives way to a renewed focus on policy in March.

GK Point of View – The Fallout from the Horizon Scandal

GK Adviser Rebecca McMahon assesses the potential impact of the Horizon scandal on the Labour Party’s procurement plans. 

How will the Horizon Scandal influence Labour policy?

The renewed focus on the Post Office’s procurement of Fujitsu’s Horizon software has brought to light procurement issues which are pertinent to the Labour Party.

Labour has already committed to increasing oversight of government procurement – Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves has proposed a “covid corruption commissioner” watchdog to recover taxpayer money lost due to the Government’s VIP “fast lane” for contract delivery during the pandemic. Evidently, the Party is keen on a system where both the Government and individual suppliers are held to greater account. The Horizon scandal only adds to its case.

The Party is not just set on preventing bad outcomes from government procurement; they are also aiming to use it as an actively positive instrument, with Deputy Leader Angela Rayner placing an emphasis on “social and environmental factors”.

She also urged the Government to ensure that “contracts do not always automatically go offshore” and instead are awarded “to businesses creating local jobs, skills and training”. Labour has also said it would “make social value mandatory in public contract design”, introducing measures to promote “decent work” and strengthen supply chains.

Labour to lean on procurement to digitalise services?

As well as encouraging more ethical procurement, Labour is also keen to use procurement to further digitalise public services. This is especially true of the NHS, where key figures like Wes Streeting, Shadow Health Secretary, have been vocal about the need to invest in innovative health technologies and make more effective use of health data.

However, in the wake of the Horizon controversy, any efforts to radically digitalise the NHS will be caveated by important questions about accountability.

Whether or not digitalisation will be a quick fix for the UK’s declining health provision, it is likely to be a key area for procurement under a Labour government. UK healthtech has expanded nine-fold since 2016, and the sector’s future could be bright under a future Starmer government.

GK Point of View – The Early Years Conundrum

GK Adviser Felix Griffin assesses the potential battle lines between Labour and the Conservatives in the early years sector ahead of the General Election.

A Political Football in the Education Arena

In the ever-evolving education landscape, early years policy has found itself thrust into the centre of a complex and highly contested arena. Incrementally, the situation has worsened over the years, with the ‘cost of living’ crisis and systemic staff recruitment and retention issues taking their toll. Early years policy is now a political football, bouncing between competing ideologies and vested interests.

There are now clear division lines between Labour and the Conservatives. Labour appears staunchly focused on prioritising comprehensive child development, emphasising a holistic and nurturing approach to early education. On the other side, the Conservatives have pivoted towards viewing the early years as a means of getting parents back to work, shaping their policies with a lens primarily focused on economic productivity.

With the Conservatives using free childcare as a ‘vote winner’, as previous governments have done, there is concern that the implementation failures that have plagued the sector for so long will persist.

As the prospect of Labour taking the reins becomes increasingly likely, it stands at a crossroad. The Party is confronted with the pressing decision of whether to persist with a clearly broken framework, risking further erosion of the quality of early childhood education, or opting for the challenging path of withdrawing the current ‘free childcare’ system, potentially facing backlash from parents and stakeholders.

However, amidst this dilemma, there is a transformative opportunity – to reform the existing system comprehensively. By engaging in strategic overhauls and policy adjustments, informed by its ‘major’ review of the early years sector, Labour has the chance to steer the course towards a more effective, equitable, and responsive early years education system, ensuring a brighter future for the nation’s youngest minds.

GK Point of View – Tory and Labour priorities in 2024

GK Senior Adviser Robert Blackmore and Adviser Noureen Ahmed assess the priorities for the Conservatives and Labour in 2024 as we make our way closer to a general election.

The Tory plan to build back core support

The Conservative Party begins 2024 in dire straits, over 20 points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour in the polls, they are running out of time to avoid a chastening defeat. Party leaders are therefore concentrating their efforts on ensuring they have strong support with the Party itself, while strategists desperately try to home in on the clearest path to victory, reducing illegal immigration via the Rwanda scheme, and providing tax cuts.

Much of the Government’s political capital is being spent on making its plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing a reality. The updated Rwanda Bill has now reached the House of Lords, where intense opposition is expected. For party strategists, it provides the Conservatives with an opportunity to weaponise the debate and highlight the immigration and Brexit-related tropes that dominated the political debates in the late 2010s.

However, the political salience of the small boats issue to the wider country, as opposed to the party’s rank-and-file, is not yet clear. That is why the Party is so keen to ensure voters feel economically empowered, as the next election approaches. With the Spring Budget scheduled for 6th March, there are a number of tax cuts that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has been considering in recent weeks, including further cuts to national insurance, cuts to income tax, and an increase in the child benefit threshold. The Chancellor, however, has been managing expectations about how feasible these may be, with the likelihood that the degree of fiscal headroom in March will be lower than expected. A fourth category, cuts to inheritance tax, is also now deemed less likely, as the Prime Minister fears it could be portrayed as a tax concession to the wealthy.

Yet, such a strategy is dependent on the electorate’s support for the Government after 13 years in power. Will they show gratitude to the Government for providing extra pounds in their pocket and vote accordingly? The tax burden is the highest it has been since the Second World War, and, according to the Resolution Foundation, wage stagnation represents a real-term decline in take home pay for many households since 2008. Given these challenges, it is not guaranteed that the Conservatives’ strategy will cut through.

It’s in the bag for Labour surely?

As the next general election looks increasingly likely for late Autumn, the Labour Party is planning to finalise any manifesto commitments by mid-February (in the unlikely scenario that the PM announces a May election). Although the Labour Party requires a significant electoral swing to claim a majority, it has been buoyed by recent polling indicating that Labour are firm favourites to lead the next government. As a result, many in Labour HQ are optimistically planning the Party’s campaign strategy.

In 2023, Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer unveiled his 5 national missions that the party will build its manifesto around. Core missions include Labour’s ambition to support the NHS to get back on its feet and break down barriers to opportunities.

Unsurprisingly, education has remained at the forefront of Labour’s core priorities, with the Party recently unveiling its plans for schools, further education, and the early years space. The Party is determined to introduce reforms to support the development of young people and better prepare them for adulthood.

The NHS is regarded as an area of strength for the Party, with the public almost always preferring Labour’s handling of the NHS. Given the widespread awareness of ongoing crises, such as doctors’ strikes, long waiting lists and inaccessible GPs, the Party is letting the national story do the campaigning for them, with scant few serious pledges on health and social care policy. Shadow Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has promised to work to address the fundamental issues, with promises made by the Party to boost funding investment, cut down waiting lists and improve staff recruitment.

However, further information on reforms have not been made public – many at Labour Party HQ worry that a detailed proposal may just offer the Conservative Party a “free win”, by giving it something to critique. The manifesto will shed light on where their focus may lie on health, but it’s unlikely that Labour will reveal its plans in full before taking power. Nevertheless, Labour has now started talks with the civil service and is finalising policy. We expect Labour to accelerate its campaign plans and attempt to present itself as a calming presence in contrast to the continuing Tory storms.