Author Archives: GK Strategy

GK Insights- Student visas reform

GK Point of View – The impact of student visa reforms

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett assesses the recent student visa reforms, and what they mean for the higher education sector.

With the Government continuing to struggle in the polls, Rishi Sunak has launched a full-frontal assault on the immigration system aimed at bringing numbers down and cutting into Labour’s seemingly unassailable lead. 

Following a record net migration figure of 745,000 in 2022, the Government has undertaken a series of measures to tighten the UK’s immigration system. As they are the largest group of non-EU migrants, international students have come into the firing line. 

In May 2023, the Government introduced new restrictions to student visa routes by preventing international students from bringing family members on all but post-graduate research routes, as well as banning people from switching into work routes until their studies have been completed. These measures officially came into force on 1 January 2024. 

The Government expects this to result in an estimated 140,000 fewer people arriving in the UK. However, with years of frozen domestic tuition fees and reductions to teaching grants stemming from Britain’s exit from the EU, it is unclear whether the UK will retain its attractiveness to international students, the very group who have been covering the sector’s budgetary shortfalls. 

Notably, the Government’s own impact assessment refuses to consider the effects of preventing international students from bringing dependants on all but post-graduate research routes, given the lack of available evidence to determine how many students (who bring dependants) will be dissuaded. On a more positive note, the impact assessment finds that only 2% of total students with an expired student visa would be affected by the ban on switching work routes until their studies had been completed. 

Given the distinct possibility that numbers of international students arriving in the UK drop because of the changes, financial pressure will grow on higher education providers who have made over-optimistic assumptions about future growth in international student numbers as a means of balancing the books. 

As we enter an election year in which the Conservatives will be reluctant to loosen immigration controls, the likelihood that some providers collapse under the financial strain cannot be overlooked. 

 

GK Point of View - Tory and Labour Priorities in 2024

GK Point of View – Tory and Labour priorities in 2024

GK Senior Adviser Robert Blackmore and Adviser Noureen Ahmed assess the priorities for the Conservatives and Labour in 2024 as we make our way closer to a general election. 

The Tory plan to build back core support 

The Conservative Party begins 2024 in dire straits, over 20 points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour in the polls, they are running out of time to avoid a chastening defeat. Party leaders are therefore concentrating their efforts on ensuring they have strong support with the Party itself, while strategists desperately try to home in on the clearest path to victory, reducing illegal immigration via the Rwanda scheme, and providing tax cuts. 

Much of the Government’s political capital is being spent on making its plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing a reality. The updated Rwanda Bill has now reached the House of Lords, where intense opposition is expected. For party strategists, it provides the Conservatives with an opportunity to weaponise the debate and highlight the immigration and Brexit-related tropes that dominated the political debates in the late 2010s. 

However, the political salience of the small boats issue to the wider country, as opposed to the party’s rank-and-file, is not yet clear. That is why the Party is so keen to ensure voters feel economically empowered, as the next election approaches. With the Spring Budget scheduled for 6th March, there are a number of tax cuts that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has been considering in recent weeks, including further cuts to national insurance, cuts to income tax, and an increase in the child benefit threshold. The Chancellor, however, has been managing expectations about how feasible these may be, with the likelihood that the degree of fiscal headroom in March will be lower than expected. A fourth category, cuts to inheritance tax, is also now deemed less likely, as the Prime Minister fears it could be portrayed as a tax concession to the wealthy.

Yet, such a strategy is dependent on the electorate’s support for the Government after 13 years in power. Will they show gratitude to the Government for providing extra pounds in their pocket and vote accordingly? The tax burden is the highest it has been since the Second World War, and, according to the Resolution Foundation, wage stagnation represents a real-term decline in take home pay for many households since 2008. Given these challenges, it is not guaranteed that the Conservatives’ strategy will cut through. 

It’s in the bag for Labour surely? 

As the next general election looks increasingly likely for late Autumn, the Labour Party is planning to finalise any manifesto commitments by mid-February (in the unlikely scenario that the PM announces a May election). Although the Labour Party requires a significant electoral swing to claim a majority, it has been buoyed by recent polling indicating that Labour are firm favourites to lead the next government. As a result, many in Labour HQ are optimistically planning the Party’s campaign strategy. 

In 2023, Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer unveiled his 5 national missions that the party will build its manifesto around. Core missions include Labour’s ambition to support the NHS to get back on its feet and break down barriers to opportunities. 

Unsurprisingly, education has remained at the forefront of Labour’s core priorities, with the Party recently unveiling its plans for schools, further education, and the early years space. The Party is determined to introduce reforms to support the development of young people and better prepare them for adulthood. 

The NHS is regarded as an area of strength for the Party, with the public almost always preferring Labour’s handling of the NHS. Given the widespread awareness of ongoing crises, such as doctors’ strikes, long waiting lists and inaccessible GPs, the Party is letting the national story do the campaigning for them, with scant few serious pledges on health and social care policy. Shadow Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has promised to work to address the fundamental issues, with promises made by the Party to boost funding investment, cut down waiting lists and improve staff recruitment. 

However, further information on reforms have not been made public – many at Labour Party HQ worry that a detailed proposal may just offer the Conservative Party a “free win”, by giving it something to critique. The manifesto will shed light on where their focus may lie on health, but it’s unlikely that Labour will reveal its plans in full before taking power. Nevertheless, Labour has now started talks with the civil service and is finalising policy. We expect Labour to accelerate its campaign plans and attempt to present itself as a calming presence in contrast to the continuing Tory storms. 

 

GK Point of View – The Contested Future of the Apprenticeship Levy

GK Senior Adviser Robert Blackmore assesses the criticisms of the Apprenticeship Levy, from unspent funds to the over-provision of apprenticeships for affluent employees, and highlights the many contested proposals to reform the Levy.

While it may not dominate the front pages, the Apprenticeship Levy is fast becoming one of the more controversial areas of UK public policy. The Levy, which is charged at 0.5% of an employer’s total payroll, applying to those with a payroll of more than £3 million, is contested at several levels.

Government officials, however, would argue that they are attempting to find a delicate balance between keeping to a pre-determined budget, whilst simultaneously ensuring that provision for priority skills areas is enhanced. Ahead of November’s Autumn Statement, it was reported that Number 10 and the Treasury were considering plans to limit the number of degree-level apprenticeships. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was said to be concerned that too great an amount was being spent on level 6 and 7 apprenticeships that tend to be filled by older and more affluent employees.

This proposal faced opposition from the DfE, while course conveners argued that high-level apprenticeships were “critical for the productivity agenda and fiscal sustainability”. Employers also pointed out that the allocation of funds should be their preserve, noting that the Levy was established to be “employer led”. Ultimately, no such proposals were included in the Autumn Statement. Instead, documents published alongside the fiscal event highlighted how apprenticeships had become a ‘prestigious and high-quality alternative route to higher education’. Despite its omission, it remains a topic of contention within Government.

Outside Whitehall, the calls for reform grow louder. Earlier this month, EDSK, a think tank focused on education and skills, proposed an even more radical overhaul of the Levy. Its report, ‘Broken Ladders’, recommended that individuals who have already achieved an undergraduate degree should no longer be eligible to start a levy-funded apprenticeship. It was also suggested that employers should be prevented from accessing further levy funding if they have trained more apprentices aged 25+ than those aged 16-24. EDSK believe that such reforms would ensure that the focus of the Levy remains on those young people who have elected to pursue a non-academic pathway. Unsurprisingly, EDSK has faced criticism from training bodies, most notably from Mandy Crawford-Lee, Chief Executive of the University Vocational Awards Council, who argued that “we should dismiss the false notion that apprenticeships are the only suitable for school/college leavers unable to reach the ‘academic’ standards needed to take them to university.”

Furthermore, last week, the British Retail Consortium (BRC), the National Farmers Union (NFU) and UK Hospitality (UKH), alongside others, issued a joint statement calling for the Government to develop a wider skills levy, for businesses to train up a greater number of domestic workers to plug the UK’s skills gaps. Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the BRC, went as far as to state “The government should stop dragging its feet so businesses can upskill our workforce.”

This position aligns with the Labour Party’s stated aim to “increase the quality as well as quantity of training opportunities” through a “growth and skills levy“. Such an expansion of the Levy, however, has faced criticism from officials inside the DfE, who estimate that plans to expand the Levy would limit the number of apprenticeship starts per year to 140,000 (down from 349,000 in 2021/22) and cost an additional £1.5 billion. It should be noted, however, that this analysis has been labelled ‘quite simplistic’ by Stephen Evans, Chief Executive of the Learning and Work Institute.

A Labour victory at the next election, expected in 2024, would provide a mandate for a ‘growth and skills levy’, yet the party have yet to fully expand on their policy, and it is unlikely that the future manifesto will delve too deeply. Many will hope reform to the Levy is not lost in the maze that is nascent government policy making.

GK Point of View – Reflections on the Autumn Statement

On Wednesday 22nd November, Jeremy Hunt MP unveiled his Autumn Statement, setting out the Government’s tax and spending commitments for the next year.  The backdrop to this year’s Autumn Statement presents a number of challenges for a government with likely less than a year until the next General Election. The UK’s inflation rate stands at 4.6%, more than double the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Growth rates have stalled, and the Bank of England is predicting that the UK will see zero growth until 2025.

To better understand the true impact of the decisions in the Autumn Statement and how they will impact both the wider economy, and specific sectors, GK Strategy have developed a briefing containing sector specific insight and analysis from our Senior and Strategic Advisers.

Find GK’s briefing here: Autumn Statement 2023

Is Sunak trying to bring the Tories back to the centre? Reflections on Rishi’s latest reshuffle.

After the polarising figures of Truss, Johnson and most recently Braverman, Sunak is using his latest reshuffle to resist the Conservative Party’s attempt to shift to the right. By bringing more centrist political figures into the fold, he looks to prepare his government to fight Labour over the centre ground at the next election. And it’s all encapsulated in the appointment of one man…

The eventual sacking of Home Secretary Suella Braverman today has finally given Sunak the political space to undertake the long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle which sees him shed some of the legacy Cabinet members inherited from the Liz Truss cabinet like Therese Coffey and bring in more centrist political figures and Sunak allies into senior government jobs. Even if it has come perhaps a month sooner than Sunak might have wanted.

One of the clearest articulations of this, is the appointment of David Cameron. The former Prime Minister from 2010 to 2016 replaces James Cleverly (who moves to Home Secretary) as Foreign Secretary, despite being out of (frontline) politics for seven years. The move makes a lot of sense from a policy perspective. Bringing back an electorally popular PM, and experienced on the world stage, Sunak will hope Cameron plays a key and senior role in managing the tense situation in Israel-Gaza. However, domestically his appointment – together with the promotion of several special advisers and former ministers who worked during the Cameron and May governments, like Laura Trott and Richard Holden – is signalling to the country that the Party is, if not just presentationally, moving back to the centre ground.

If the Conservatives are staring down the barrel of huge electoral defeat at the next election, it makes sense to shift to a strategy of shoring up the base and minimise damage, from a pragmatic perspective. This means focusing on the Blue Wall seats and those who voted Conservative before Brexit will be amongst those most skittish at the next election, and most at risk of offering their vote to the Lib Dems or Labour. They may have voted for Johnson because there was no alternative, saw the chaos of Liz Truss, and are now perhaps uncomfortable with the direction and tone of the Party led from the likes of Braverman. That is of course not to say that there won’t still be a strong policy approach on home affairs like immigration, but presentationally, the approach from Cleverly will be far more palatable to No.10 than what we have seen from Braverman.

Therefore, seeing the likes of Cameron return will give them a feeling that the Party is back to the one they know. This is not without risk, given his close association with Brexit amongst many middle of the road and remainer voters, but it must be said that Brexit has crashed out of the top issues for voters.

This puts Sunak back in the position to appeal to the electoral centre ground that has been increasingly under attack by Labour in recent months, and will make the Autumn Statement all the more important, as he will want to demonstrate that this is a team ready for the long-term. Even if it is a rather damning indictment on the quality in the parliamentary party, not on least many 2019-ers, who will largely feel overlooked if they don’t sit in this wing of the party.

However, with Cameron and Hunt in Great Offices of State, and ministerial ranks filled with coalition era ministers and former SpAds, it will certainly make Rishi’s approach as the ‘change candidate’ against Keir Starmer all the more difficult. Instead, it feels like Sunak is perhaps going to lean more into the ‘better the devil you know’ message, despite continuing to talk about fresh ideas for the long term.

Perhaps this latest Rishi Reset is the one to shift the dial? Or perhaps, more likely, it is the sign of a government that has run out of road and ideas.

Kings Speech

The King’s Speech

Conservative Party shapes political battlegrounds in bid to turn around polling deficit

The first King’s Speech by Charles III and the last before a General Election was noteworthy not for the 21 Bills announced, which will shape the upcoming legislative agenda, but what it revealed politically. Whilst in the short-term today’s ceremony is unlikely to move the dial, it did reveal the foundations upon which the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party will seek to fight the election upon.

The overarching theme was the Government’s commitment to reducing inflation and bringing down the cost of living. The language that accompanied this was ‘making decisions in the long-term interest.’ This is fundamental to the Conservative Party strategy. By next Autumn (the most likely timing for the General Election) household costs will have stabilised and the Party will say to the electorate that they are on the right track and now is not the time to change course. Expect the phrase ‘long term interest’ to feature even more prominently as we look ahead to the Autumn Statement later this month. In the most recent YouGov poll of the most important issues facing the country unsurprisingly the economy is far out in front of the public’s most pressing concerns.

Within the King’s Speech were numerous Bills related to law and order. This is an area of traditional strength for the Conservative Party, however, in recent times the Party has fallen behind Labour on the issue. The recent demonstrations in London and the potential for further action ahead of Armistice Day, the Conservative political machine may see this as an opportunity to push for a hard line approach that they believe will sit well with the majority of voters. The Economic Activities of Public Bodies Bill, which is designed to give ministers the powers to ban public bodies from imposing their own boycotts, divestment or sanctions campaigns against foreign countries is likely to be a focal point in this debate designed to further expose divisions within the Labour Party on conflicts such as Israel-Palestine.

The other major focus area, which wasn’t included as a Bill but was referenced by The King as a priority area for the Government is on the topic of immigration. The King said the Government would continue to crackdown on criminal gangs and control the boats crossing the Channel with the powers conferred to ministers in the previous Parliament. With almost 4 in 10 voters citing immigration as a top three issue the Government is determined that its efforts remain front of mind of voters.

So, with the pitfalls for Labour clear, how can the Party respond? Under the Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves we will continue to ensure fiscal discipline is the priority. By demonstrating a firm grip on public spending and fully costed policies, Reeves will hope to build up enough credibility that when she asks voters ‘do you feel better off after a Conservative government’ the reply will not only be ‘no’, but an electorate confident in voting for a reformed Labour Party. The Party will also feel they are on the right side of the argument when it comes to the transition to Net Zero with regards to the forthcoming Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill, claiming the Government is failing to show leadership and is presiding over a period of ‘dither and delay’.

Labour are also likely to capitalise on the lack of health announcements in the speech despite the policy area trailing only behind the economy in voters concerns. Despite a bill promising to ban the sale of smoking to anyone born on or after 1st January 2009, there were no mentions of NHS reforms or bringing down waiting lists. Perhaps an acknowledgement that the Conservative Party have for now conceded on the issue.

The battle lines have been drawn. Today is the firing gun on the debates in Parliament and the media that are likely to play out between now and the election as the parties vie for your vote.

What can organisations looking to engage in the political process take from this? It is far less about the potential impact of these measures, which may or may not pass, but a guide to how you can align your organisation with the political agenda to ensure your voice is heard and to begin to positively influence the shape of the next Parliamentary session.

For more details on the State Opening of Parliament and the new session, speak to GK Associate Director, David Mitchell david.mitchell@gkstrategy.com