The government is facing a low-growth challenge that is constraining its ambition and capacity to improve living standards in the UK. GDP per capita, the average level of economic output per person and a metric key to understanding changes in living standards, has plateaued since the Covid-19 pandemic. Poor levels of economic growth have plagued the UK since the 2008 financial crash. GDP per capita rose by 0.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, weaker than the 2010s average of 1.3% and a significant shortfall of the pre-financial crash average of 2.5% (1993-2008). High levels of immigration in recent years have also disguised the economy’s malaise and masks an underlying weakness in the UK’s per-capita economic performance. Weak growth directly limits the amount of revenue that can be collected through taxation to meet rising demand for public services and fund the government’s programme of reforms.

Improving the UK’s economic growth trajectory has emerged as a key objective of policymaking. It is vital that ministers create the regulatory and economic environment to stimulate growth in the economy that bridges the gap between policy ambition and fiscal sustainability. The Chancellor Rachel Reeves has called on regulatory bodies to rebalance their statutory duties and reduce the regulatory burden on business to stimulate competition and growth. This includes, for example, the Competition and Markets Authority’s reforms to the merger remedies guidance. At the same time, Reeves has increased public spending by almost £70 billion a year and tweaked her fiscal rules to offset capital expenditure to further increase spending. These decisions have help fund policies such as the energy secretary Ed Miliband’s £15 billion Warm Homes Plan to kick-start the domestic retrofit and energy upgrade sector over the next five years.

Mixed and unspoken signals

Despite some positive moves in the right direction, the absence of a clear, coherent political narrative from the centre of government has left investors and businesses grappling with mixed and often conflicting signals from different parts of the government machine. While Ed Miliband passionately talks about the Warm Homes Plan creating thousands of jobs, the cost of employment has significantly increased with changes to employer National Insurance Contributions and the introduction of the Employment Rights Act which is estimated to cost businesses £1 billion a year.

The cumulative impact of policy decisions has meant inflation in the economy has remained stubbornly high. The UK was an outlier amongst G7 economies in reducing levels of inflation in 2025. Numerous flagship government policies have also directly increased the cost of doing business in the UK which has translated into higher prices for consumers, reinforcing inflationary pressures. This is despite treasury ministers inheriting the sharpest fall in the headline rate of inflation from the previous Conservative government. Inflation was 2.8% in June 2024 (the Conservatives’ last month in office) and now stands at 3.4%, having peaked at 4.2% in July 2025.

The unspoken message to investors and businesses is thus: bear the brunt of higher business costs now before any economic gains begin to materialise from wider de-regulatory reforms, such as changes to streamline the planning system being introduced through the government’s Planning and Infrastructure Act. It is a sizeable political and economic wager and 2026 will be critical in determining whether this strategy begins to pay off. Ministers will be keeping a close eye over the coming year for early signs of economic improvements.

The strategy’s political risk is timing. The economic dividend of the government’s supply-slide reforms, such as overhauling the planning system or the new growth imperative on regulatory bodies, risks arriving too late in the parliamentary term for the government to get any meaningful credit. If the economy is not firing on all cylinders or living standards do not meaningfully improve for voters, the state of the economy will be a key battleground issue at the next election.

For businesses, 2026 will be a critical year for engaging with government as ministers will be eager to expediate regulatory barriers that are currently holding back growth plans and economic activity. For investors, understanding where ministers are politically committed and where a possible course correction is most likely to take place will be critical to navigating the rest of the parliamentary term.