Tag Archives: general election

Barriers to the Reform-quake

GK’s James Allan assesses some of the barriers of populism in British politics and explains why the political hype about Reform UK might be overstated

‘Campaigning is different than governing’ – so said President Obama to reporters on Air Force One in a targeted message to Republicans looking to gridlock his legislative agenda on Capitol Hill. The same goes for any political organisation that looks to exploit grievances and stir up public anger to secure votes and electoral support. It was a dynamic at play in the 2016 Brexit referendum and Reform UK is reviving the grievance playbook in the lead up to the next election.

How the Labour government, and the Conservative Party in opposition, respond and deal with the challenge posed by Reform UK is undoubtedly shaping the course of this parliament. The government published its immigration white paper only moments after the local election result and the so-called ‘Reform-quake’ that saw 677 Reform councillors elected. As noted in last month’s newsletter, the government’s political objectives were clear: to appear tough on immigration, shatter the public perception of Labour being pro-asylum and pro-migration, and outflank Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage.

With all the subsequent political and media crystal ball gazing about the future of Reform UK, it is unsurprising that investors and businesses are curious. Importantly, the next election is likely to take place in the second half of 2028 or at some point in 2029. It is too early to predict the outcome meaning current polling warrants cautious interpretation. Amid the uncertainty, it is worth stepping back to consider why the political hype about Reform UK may be premature.

Four reasons why the Reform panic is overblown

1. The UK is bucking the global populist trend

The year 2024 was mega for elections across the globe. It was a year that largely saw incumbents punished for achieving marginal levels of economic growth, governing during a global health pandemic, and a cost-of-living crisis. This created opportunities for the ring-wing populist parties that sought to challenge to status quo, capitalise on grievances and promise radical change without providing credible plans for doing so. However, unlike most swings experienced in other western developed democracies, the UK swung to the left. The election of a Labour government brought an end to 14 years of Conservative governments.

The UK’s anti-incumbent sentiment at the election meant that one in four Conservative voters in 2019 went to Reform UK and one in five went to the Labour Party. This indicates a more fragmented split in the national vote and the UK’s first past the post electoral system means that Labour’s majority should be understood as broad but thin. It reflects a characteristic of our electoral and constitutional DNA that makes it harder for third, fourth and fifth political parties to perform well and win seats at general elections, including a right-wing populist challenger party. The bar is therefore high for Reform UK. It would need to overcome this fragmentation and more comprehensively supplant the Conservative Party to succeed.

2. No party has ever lost a 174-seat majority in modern British political history

Starmer’s majority is the third largest landslide win since the turn of the 20^th century. From 1945 onwards, history would suggest that majorities such as this typically endure at least one more election before the colour of government changes. Labour’s majority of 145 in 1945 survived one other election before being unseated and its majority of 179 seats in 1997 endured for two more elections. The Conservative majority of 144 in 1983 also endured for two more elections and was whittled down to a majority of 21 before the party was catapulted out of power.

Historical precedents should be taken with a pinch of salt. The third-party challenger in all these elections were typically the Liberal Democrats (or its predecessors). A more fragmented electorate and Reform UK could challenge this historical precedent but even its predecessor UKIP never won any seats in the House of Commons at its peak in 2015 despite holding a number of seats in the European Parliament elected under a proportional representative system. This further underscores the difficulty these challenger parties face.

3. Grievance politics only gets you so far

Reform UK’s playbook of grievances is blunt and polarising: immigration and borders; issues of national identity and community cohesion; taking on establishment orthodoxy and perceived elite indifference; and underscoring the cost of net zero policies. Playing on grievances can mobilise discontent, and without credible solutions, Reform UK will struggle to translate its momentum into enduring political support.

The coming years will be a test of Reform UK’s operational effectiveness, party discipline and credibility in local government. Its success at the May local elections is significant. It won 677 council seats out of roughly 1,600, took control of ten local authorities and successfully elected two mayors. But beyond the grievances espoused by its candidates, Reform UK’s credibility is now at stake and already showing early signs of dysfunction. For instance, Reform UK-controlled Kent County Council recently suspended a councillor and nine of the 22 council meetings have been cancelled within the first nine weeks of them gaining control. These are meetings where important decisions, such as budget allocations and service provisions were expected to be made.

Local government plays a vital role in the operational delivery of frontline local public services that most of the electorate use and engage with. From adult social care and children’s services, to bin collection and public protection, a lot is at stake for Reform controlled local authorities. Political leaders in Westminster will be watching closely to exploit any opportunity to batter Reform’s credibility. Added to this is immense pressure on local government finances, meaning that any misstep will be amplified. Reform UK not only has to prove it can win votes but also that it can govern responsibly under intense scrutiny and fiscal constraint.

4. Expect mid-term blues

It is reasonable for voters to flirt with protest parties between general elections and Reform UK is likely to maintain its momentum in local elections over the course of this parliament. Local elections offer a safe outlet for public frustration, but general elections are different. Not only will voters who are less politically engaged (or enraged) turn out to vote in a general election, but the national conversation will shift from registering voter discontent to who can govern the country effectively. It was a dynamic in 2024 and a key part of Starmer’s pitch to voters, citing his record of restoring Labour’s credibility from the Corbyn era of Labour leadership and criticising the Conservative’s mismanagement of the economy.

While Reform UK may have reshaped the political conversation, structural barriers and historical precedents mean that translating this discontent into enduring electoral support that can survive the test of a general election will be a significant challenge for the populist right-wing party.

The GK Post-Election Breakfast Event

GK Strategy Adviser Rebecca McMahon reviews the GK Post-Election Breakfast Event.

The coming weeks and months will see the new Labour government pressing ahead with its agenda for government, and getting to grips with a number of difficult challenges facing the UK, from sluggish growth, to growing NHS waiting lists, to precarious local authority finances.

GK Strategy was delighted to host a panel discussion this week looking at how the government will tackle some of these issues, and how it will prioritise its time and resources to deliver on its ambitious policy pledges. GK was joined by former Minister and Health Select Committee Chair, Steve Brine, and Head of Research at Labour Together, Christabel Cooper, who shared their insights into the government’s approach, and some of the inevitable obstacles it will face in the coming months.

Both panelists agreed that while the list of public policy challenges inherited by Starmer and his team is by no means a short one, Labour ministers will now be deciding on areas where urgent action is most needed.

Reforming the UK’s planning system was identified as one of the priority areas for Starmer’s new administration. Our two panelists noted that the new Government’s ambition in this area has already been illustrated by repealing the de facto ban on onshore wind, re-introducing mandatory housing targets, and pledging to update the National Planning Policy Framework via consultation by the end of the Party’s first month in power.

As a policy area with implications for multiple sectors – including housebuilding, the green economy and major infrastructure– planning reform to unlock private investment will be at the core of the new Labour Government’s agenda. As Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves set out in her first speech following her appointment, its ultimate success will rely on “unlocking private investment that we so desperately need”.

Healthcare and the future of the NHS was another policy area which featured prominently. Steve Brine pointed out that under current spending plans, funding for the health service is projected to rise at a lower rate than during the austerity years. Meanwhile, the NHS Workforce Plan continues to be underfunded and the outcome of the Health Secretary’s talks with the junior doctors uncertain. He noted that while the Government will soon have to make difficult spending decisions, there would be an emphasis on creating an investor-friendly NHS to support Labour’s ambitions to “crowd in” private investment to improve efficiency and health outcomes.

There was a consensus that Labour’s perspective on the use of the private sector in supporting the delivery of public services is a pragmatic one. Labour’s ‘wide but shallow’ majority – achieving 64% of parliamentary seats on roughly 34% of the vote – means that the Party will need to reassure voters that it is making headway on its policy programme. Our panelists agreed that working with the private sector will be key to successfully demonstrating this.

Please do get in touch via rebecca.mcmahon@gkstrategy.com if you are interested in attending future events or would like to set up a call to discuss the year ahead in politics.

GK Strategy – General Election Update

General Election Results Briefing

The GK team reacts to the 2024 General Election results, with GK’s Strategic Advisers sharing their insights on Labour’s historic victory, and the implications for Sir Keir Starmer’s new government.

To read our briefing please click here.

Is Starmer Taking a Risk in His Attempt to Broaden Labour’s Appeal?

GK Advisers Noureen Ahmed and Felix Griffin reflect on Natalie Elphicke’s defection to the Labour Party and what this could mean for the Labour Party ahead of the next general election.

Keir Starmer is keen to exploit divisions within the Conservative Party, but is that enough to convince voters that Labour is a government in waiting?

When MPs took to the Common’s chamber for Prime Minister’s Questions on 8 May, we witnessed Natalie Elphicke defect to the Labour Party – the third Conservative MP to do so during this parliament. As a right-wing MP and vocal critic of Labour’s policies, Elphicke’s defection came as a huge shock to many in Westminster. Elphicke has previously accused Labour of being soft on issues related to human rights and immigration. As a result, there have been concerns from several Labour MPs that Labour’s commitment to tackling those issues could be undermined by her admission to the Party. Starmer’s willingness to embrace a defector from the right of the Conservative Party suggests a strategy aimed at broadening Labour’s appeal to Conservative voters, even if it means alienating the party’s left flank and risking Labour’s reputation on key issues such as social justice. This approach has sparked awkward questions about how far Labour’s leadership is willing to go to win Tory votes.

Labour’s strategy may be effective in the short term, creating a perception of decay within the Tory government and encouraging Conservative voters to switch allegiance. However, the success of the Greens and some independent candidates in recent local elections indicates that anti-Tory sentiment does not necessarily translate into enthusiastic support for Labour. To be truly successful, Labour will need both an appealing policy platform to secure votes at the general election and firm support across parliament.

While further defections may seem unlikely, they should not be ruled out entirely. As Sunak continues to face criticism that he is leading an increasingly chaotic government, it is evident that Labour will do everything it can to secure the victory it has long yearned for.

GK Point of View – Tory and Labour priorities in 2024

GK Senior Adviser Robert Blackmore and Adviser Noureen Ahmed assess the priorities for the Conservatives and Labour in 2024 as we make our way closer to a general election.

The Tory plan to build back core support

The Conservative Party begins 2024 in dire straits, over 20 points behind Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour in the polls, they are running out of time to avoid a chastening defeat. Party leaders are therefore concentrating their efforts on ensuring they have strong support with the Party itself, while strategists desperately try to home in on the clearest path to victory, reducing illegal immigration via the Rwanda scheme, and providing tax cuts.

Much of the Government’s political capital is being spent on making its plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda for processing a reality. The updated Rwanda Bill has now reached the House of Lords, where intense opposition is expected. For party strategists, it provides the Conservatives with an opportunity to weaponise the debate and highlight the immigration and Brexit-related tropes that dominated the political debates in the late 2010s.

However, the political salience of the small boats issue to the wider country, as opposed to the party’s rank-and-file, is not yet clear. That is why the Party is so keen to ensure voters feel economically empowered, as the next election approaches. With the Spring Budget scheduled for 6th March, there are a number of tax cuts that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has been considering in recent weeks, including further cuts to national insurance, cuts to income tax, and an increase in the child benefit threshold. The Chancellor, however, has been managing expectations about how feasible these may be, with the likelihood that the degree of fiscal headroom in March will be lower than expected. A fourth category, cuts to inheritance tax, is also now deemed less likely, as the Prime Minister fears it could be portrayed as a tax concession to the wealthy.

Yet, such a strategy is dependent on the electorate’s support for the Government after 13 years in power. Will they show gratitude to the Government for providing extra pounds in their pocket and vote accordingly? The tax burden is the highest it has been since the Second World War, and, according to the Resolution Foundation, wage stagnation represents a real-term decline in take home pay for many households since 2008. Given these challenges, it is not guaranteed that the Conservatives’ strategy will cut through.

It’s in the bag for Labour surely?

As the next general election looks increasingly likely for late Autumn, the Labour Party is planning to finalise any manifesto commitments by mid-February (in the unlikely scenario that the PM announces a May election). Although the Labour Party requires a significant electoral swing to claim a majority, it has been buoyed by recent polling indicating that Labour are firm favourites to lead the next government. As a result, many in Labour HQ are optimistically planning the Party’s campaign strategy.

In 2023, Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer unveiled his 5 national missions that the party will build its manifesto around. Core missions include Labour’s ambition to support the NHS to get back on its feet and break down barriers to opportunities.

Unsurprisingly, education has remained at the forefront of Labour’s core priorities, with the Party recently unveiling its plans for schools, further education, and the early years space. The Party is determined to introduce reforms to support the development of young people and better prepare them for adulthood.

The NHS is regarded as an area of strength for the Party, with the public almost always preferring Labour’s handling of the NHS. Given the widespread awareness of ongoing crises, such as doctors’ strikes, long waiting lists and inaccessible GPs, the Party is letting the national story do the campaigning for them, with scant few serious pledges on health and social care policy. Shadow Health Secretary, Wes Streeting, has promised to work to address the fundamental issues, with promises made by the Party to boost funding investment, cut down waiting lists and improve staff recruitment.

However, further information on reforms have not been made public – many at Labour Party HQ worry that a detailed proposal may just offer the Conservative Party a “free win”, by giving it something to critique. The manifesto will shed light on where their focus may lie on health, but it’s unlikely that Labour will reveal its plans in full before taking power. Nevertheless, Labour has now started talks with the civil service and is finalising policy. We expect Labour to accelerate its campaign plans and attempt to present itself as a calming presence in contrast to the continuing Tory storms.

Party conference 2023

As the annual conference season draws to a close, possibly the last before a general election next year, the main political parties will be reflecting on the success or otherwise of the Manchester and Liverpool gatherings. Both conferences were attended by our political advisers, who reflect on Conservative and Labour conference below.

As with past conferences, the measure of success differs, this was Rishi Sunak’s first as Tory leader, a more stable but still divided party. Just a year ago Liz Truss led a chaotic prelude to her short time in No10 and this year’s collection of Nigel Farage (as journalist) and long awaited HS2 announcement wasn’t the best backdrop as the Prime Minister attempted to cast his leadership as a force for change. Contrast Liverpool and the balance of a Labour party consistently ahead in the polls, with a more united and coherent party than for the past decade – a gathering of Labour activists who were at pains not to be carried too high on the prospect of government.

In a change to the usual order, the Conservative’s met first. The ongoing saga of will they, won’t they with HS2 didn’t help Rishi Sunak’s first conference as party leader. While the Prime Minister’s team struggled to get a hold of the narrative over the three days in Manchester, the former leader and likely leadership hopeful, Liz Truss and Suella Braverman, were quick to try and seize the agenda. Where the party truly seemed united was on the importance of support for climate action, and this was reflected in the sheer number of well-attended fringe events giving serious attention to how the UK can credibly retain its status as a climate leader. The Conservatives, despite recent announcements seemingly backing away from climate policy, understand that this remains a key vote-winner. Cobbling together a sell-able vision for the climate to the electorate could be make-or-break for the party in any upcoming election.

Sunak’s conference speech, his most important as leader saw the Prime Minister attempt to create some separation between his premiership and what he referred to as the previous “30 years of a political system which incentivises the easy decision, not the right one”. This will be a tough balancing act in the months ahead of the upcoming election. The 30-years Sunak references encompasses not only former Labour leaders Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, but no fewer than five Conservative Prime Ministers. The key question going into an election year will be whether Sunak can create that separation and be given the opportunity to push forward with his ambitious reforms to education, or whether he will be rejected by the electorate as more of the same.

Keir Starmer’s speech embodied Labour conference in Liverpool this week. A leader and a party more at home with its values and a confident, clear, coherent, even hopeful message about Britain’s future – a decade of national renewal. The party wanted a clean conference, a solid platform speaking to business leaders and the wider public, the opportunity now to project Keir Starmer’s message for the country which faced down the shame of the Corbyn-era and proudly bound past Labour success with a party of service, building a new country over the next decade and beyond. The test now is for the party to successfully project the same confidence beyond Liverpool, and Westminster, to the country at large.