Category Archives: Regulation

Will the Chancellor’s ‘securonomics’ strategy drive growth in a new age of instability?

Throughout her time as Chancellor, Rachel Reeves has insisted that the government’s main objective is to facilitate economic growth. During her Mais Lecture on 17 March 2026, Reeves set out a vision for long-term economic growth, using the speech as an opportunity to highlight the ways in which the government will overcome challenges such as fiscal constraints, low productivity, and global instability.

Reeves reaffirmed her belief in ‘securonomics’, an economic strategy where the government helps individuals and businesses gain economic security by investing strategically in sectors like technology, financial services, science and infrastructure. Reeves emphasised that the government needed to play a more active role in guiding investment given the impact of the middle east conflict on the global economy. She stated that market disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine-Russia war, and the US-Israel war with Iran meant that ‘globalisation, as we once knew it, is dead’. As a result, the government would need to find balance between building resilient public services and facilitating private sector growth, as well as a balance between importing goods and products from other countries and bolstering domestic supply chains.

A central theme of the lecture was the ‘big choices’ the government is making to shape the UK economy over the next decade. The Chancellor placed significant emphasis on securing closer ties with the EU, arguing that it was essential for future growth. She stated that a closer alignment could reduce trade barriers. Reeves acknowledged that Brexit has had a negative impact on the UK economy, a shift from previous years where she had shied away from being overtly critical of Brexit. Reeves stopped short of expressing support for rejoining the EU, instead stating that the UK could find greater alignment with Brussels on policy, while still operating outside the EU’s formal structures. If the government is successful in forming a closer relationship with the EU, she remarked, it could ease the administrative and customs costs for businesses importing from and exporting to the European Union.

While business owners will be pleased to see the Chancellor discussing reducing trade barriers with the EU, Reeves’ attempt to set out a vision for regulatory alignment with the EU may be more concerning for businesses. Reeves said that the government would be prepared to align with EU regulation where it is in the ‘national interest’ to do so, and would maintain regulatory autonomy in sectors with strategic importance for the UK. However, this ignores the post-Brexit reality – the UK and the EU are growing apart on their regulatory goals.

Recent UK governments have increasingly highlighted their ability to implement more flexible approaches to regulation than the EU as a selling point to attract global business. Reeves herself wrote to 17 regulatory bodies in January 2025 urging them to ‘tear down regulatory barriers’ and focus on opportunities to facilitate economic growth. For example, Reeves has implored the Financial Conduct Authority to reduce ‘anti-risk’ regulations and improve competitiveness in financial services sub-sectors, including consumer finance. This is a significant contrast from the EU’s approach, which is more precautionary and is unlikely to result in the reduction of detailed consumer protection rules. If the government does pursue regulatory alignment with the EU in financial services, it would need to consider the impact on regulations, such as affordability assessments and disclosure requirements. Altering these regulations could increase compliance costs for businesses and would likely upset management teams that have spent the last five years adapting to the UK’s Consumer Duty.

The Chancellor also argued that technological advancement is critical to boosting productivity, creating jobs, and positioning the UK as a global leader in emerging industries. As part of this plan, Reeves said the government will support regional growth through fiscal devolution that will empower local leaders, and will also create sector hubs in different cities. This includes establishing Leeds’ Northern Square Mile as a destination for global financial services. To support regional growth the government will create new city-level investment funds and allow regions to retain more of the tax revenues they generate, with the aim of stimulating local investment and reducing reliance on central government.

Reeves commitment to supporting technological innovation in financial services, as well as facilitating growth across the country is likely to provide opportunities to businesses in emerging financial services sub-sectors that harness AI and machine learning. Tech-focused sub-sectors, such as embedded finance, could benefit from these plans, including businesses providing payments and money transfers services, peer-to-peer lending services, and insurtech services. Investors focused on these sectors should monitor the government’s progress in establishing finance or technology sector hubs in various cities across the UK, as well as any funding announcements relating to these sectors.

The Mais Lecture reinforced a consistent economic strategy centred on stability, investment, and reform. While the lecture did not introduce any new policies, it did clarify the government’s long-term economic goals and Reeves’ commitment to ‘securonomics’. However, Reeves will need to use the coming months to share further details on the extent to which she wants key sectors within the government’s industrial strategy, such as the financial services and technology sectors, to be aligned with the EU on regulation. The Chancellor is ‘optimistic’ about the government’s ability to drive investment and growth but will need support from the business community to do so. Investors and businesses should consider potential scenarios where they can support the government to ensure that policy, funding and regulation is geared towards creating the best possible environment for growth in the UK.

If you would like to discuss the Chancellor’s growth strategy and its impact on businesses in more detail, please get in touch with joshua@gkstrategy.com.

GK & Anchor Policy Spotlight: Emerging Regulatory Markets

The next decade and beyond will be defined by global challenges ranging from climate change and food security to geopolitical instability and competition for resources. Governments around the world will be forced to address these at pace, but many of the solutions will depend on technological advances and scientific discoveries that are only just emerging.

Curiosity has always been in GK’s DNA and over the last year we have dedicated considerable time to understanding and engaging with the emerging industrial sectors of the future. Ranging from technological developments in already highly regulated sectors to the sectors that are just emerging as future economic powerhouses, GK has put them under the microscope to unpick the political, policy and regulatory opportunities and challenges on the horizon.

This report is an introduction of that thinking to you. We know our investment community is keen to understand the risks and opportunities in these spaces to stay ahead of competitors in origination strategies, and most importantly, to invest for the future. With the decades of combined experience that informs our counsel, we pride ourselves on seeing the things that others don’t. Our team of consultants in the UK, Europe and the US is uniquely positioned to give a truly global perspective on understanding and growing the future sectors of the global economy.

Understanding the government’s growth story

The government is facing a low-growth challenge that is constraining its ambition and capacity to improve living standards in the UK. GDP per capita, the average level of economic output per person and a metric key to understanding changes in living standards, has plateaued since the Covid-19 pandemic. Poor levels of economic growth have plagued the UK since the 2008 financial crash. GDP per capita rose by 0.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, weaker than the 2010s average of 1.3% and a significant shortfall of the pre-financial crash average of 2.5% (1993-2008). High levels of immigration in recent years have also disguised the economy’s malaise and masks an underlying weakness in the UK’s per-capita economic performance. Weak growth directly limits the amount of revenue that can be collected through taxation to meet rising demand for public services and fund the government’s programme of reforms.

Improving the UK’s economic growth trajectory has emerged as a key objective of policymaking. It is vital that ministers create the regulatory and economic environment to stimulate growth in the economy that bridges the gap between policy ambition and fiscal sustainability. The Chancellor Rachel Reeves has called on regulatory bodies to rebalance their statutory duties and reduce the regulatory burden on business to stimulate competition and growth. This includes, for example, the Competition and Markets Authority’s reforms to the merger remedies guidance. At the same time, Reeves has increased public spending by almost £70 billion a year and tweaked her fiscal rules to offset capital expenditure to further increase spending. These decisions have help fund policies such as the energy secretary Ed Miliband’s £15 billion Warm Homes Plan to kick-start the domestic retrofit and energy upgrade sector over the next five years.

Mixed and unspoken signals

Despite some positive moves in the right direction, the absence of a clear, coherent political narrative from the centre of government has left investors and businesses grappling with mixed and often conflicting signals from different parts of the government machine. While Ed Miliband passionately talks about the Warm Homes Plan creating thousands of jobs, the cost of employment has significantly increased with changes to employer National Insurance Contributions and the introduction of the Employment Rights Act which is estimated to cost businesses £1 billion a year.

The cumulative impact of policy decisions has meant inflation in the economy has remained stubbornly high. The UK was an outlier amongst G7 economies in reducing levels of inflation in 2025. Numerous flagship government policies have also directly increased the cost of doing business in the UK which has translated into higher prices for consumers, reinforcing inflationary pressures. This is despite treasury ministers inheriting the sharpest fall in the headline rate of inflation from the previous Conservative government. Inflation was 2.8% in June 2024 (the Conservatives’ last month in office) and now stands at 3.4%, having peaked at 4.2% in July 2025.

The unspoken message to investors and businesses is thus: bear the brunt of higher business costs now before any economic gains begin to materialise from wider de-regulatory reforms, such as changes to streamline the planning system being introduced through the government’s Planning and Infrastructure Act. It is a sizeable political and economic wager and 2026 will be critical in determining whether this strategy begins to pay off. Ministers will be keeping a close eye over the coming year for early signs of economic improvements.

The strategy’s political risk is timing. The economic dividend of the government’s supply-slide reforms, such as overhauling the planning system or the new growth imperative on regulatory bodies, risks arriving too late in the parliamentary term for the government to get any meaningful credit. If the economy is not firing on all cylinders or living standards do not meaningfully improve for voters, the state of the economy will be a key battleground issue at the next election.

For businesses, 2026 will be a critical year for engaging with government as ministers will be eager to expediate regulatory barriers that are currently holding back growth plans and economic activity. For investors, understanding where ministers are politically committed and where a possible course correction is most likely to take place will be critical to navigating the rest of the parliamentary term.

GK Look Ahead: Health and Social Care Policy

GK Strategy is pleased to share its ‘Look Ahead’ report which sets out some of the key health policy and regulatory trends to watch out for in 2026.

The report includes insights from GK Strategic Adviser Steve Brine on the government’s policy plans for health sub-sectors, such as dentistry and community pharmacy. Steve is a former Health Minister and was Chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee.

The report can be accessed here: https://gkstrategy.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GK-Look-Ahead-Health-and-Social-Care-Policy-January-2026.pdf

Risk-based or sector led? How we can expect the government to regulate AI

Elon Musk’s AI chatbot, Grok, has received significant backlash in recent weeks after its ability to create sexualised images of women and children generated widespread media headlines.  The scale of the public outcry has sharpened concerns about how quickly AI capabilities are outpacing existing safeguards. This has increased pressure on the government to more stringently regulate AI, which is reshaping industries at an unprecedented pace, bringing both opportunities and risks.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer previously suggested that the government would move away from the last Conservative administration’s ‘pro-innovation regulatory framework’ for AI, as set out in its white paper on AI published in 2023. Instead, Starmer has publicly emphasised the need for an overarching regulatory framework with additional protections in specific areas. He has also expressed concerns about the potential risks and impacts of AI, while acknowledging its transformative potential for society. In January 2025, the government published its AI Opportunities Action Plan, which set out its ambitions to use AI to ‘turbocharge’ economic growth and create AI growth zones to speed up planning processes for AI infrastructure.

The government’s approach to AI differs from the EU’s risk-based framework, which classifies AI systems into four categories: unacceptable risk, high risk, limited risk, and minimal risk. Each category has a different set of regulations and requirements for organisations developing or using AI systems. UK-based organisations with operations in the EU or those deploying AI systems within the bloc are likely to fall under the jurisdiction of the EU AI Act, requiring UK organisations to keep abreast of legislative changes and any potential future misalignments between the UK and EU in this area.

Although Starmer has pledged to turn the UK into an ‘AI superpower’, ministers have so far struggled to find the right balance between regulation and harnessing AI’s economic potential. At the end of 2024, the government proposed relaxing copyright laws to allow developers to train AI models on any material they can legally access. The plans received widespread criticism from creatives and high-profile musicians who would be required to opt-out of having their work used. Ministers have since acknowledged that the move was misguided and announced that the associated legislation would be delayed while they develop a more extensive policy framework.

It is likely that we will see new legislation announced in the form of an AI and Copyright Bill at the King’s speech, which is due to take place in May 2026. This presents an opportunity for businesses to engage with the government at a key stage of the policymaking process.

The legislation is likely to focus on safety, copyright protections, and transparency. The government has been clear that it does not want to introduce measures that could drive AI investment out of the UK. Appearing before the Digital and Communications Committee in January 2026, technology secretary Liz Kendall stated that many of the larger AI companies are opposed to ‘onerous burdens’, suggesting the government is likely to adopt a cautious approach in its efforts to more stringently regulate AI to avoid deterring potential investment in the UK.

This means we can expect the government to attempt to tread a line between the EU’s risk-based framework and the deregulatory approach taken in the US in order to strike the right balance between innovation and oversight. Despite both the EU and UK focussing on principles such as accountability and transparency, the diverging approaches observed so far in practice mean a consistent approach to the regulation of AI is unlikely, at least in the near term.

If you would like to discuss AI regulation in more detail, please reach out to Annabelle Black at annabelle@gkstrategy.com.

Beyond the battlefield: Britain’s drone strategy as a lever for economic growth

Lessons from the battlefields of Ukraine, combined with rapid technological innovation, have pushed drones firmly into the centre of UK defence policy. Yet, the implications of this shift extend far beyond military capability and the defence sector. By scaling domestic manufacturing and considering drone technology within wider growth strategies, there is potential to unlock growth across many sectors in the UK economy.

The pace of technological development seen in Ukraine has demonstrated how quickly drone capability can evolve when innovation is tested under real-world conditions. Low-cost drones, AI-driven autonomous systems, and advanced first-person view drones have challenged traditional defence strategies. For the UK, this has underscored the importance of building domestic drone capability to enhance national security.

To build these capabilities, the Ministry of Defence’s 2024 Defence Drone Strategy and 2025 Defence Industrial Strategy set out a vision that includes drones as a central component of military capability. This has been reinforced by the 2025 Strategic Defence Review, in which the government recognised that drones will be central to future conflicts and outlines its ambition to support innovation and growth in the drones sector.

For defence contractors, the implications are immediate. The government’s desire to deliver progress at pace on these strategies means that businesses that can demonstrate resilient and tested technologies are positioned to win contracts. However, the effects of this industrial strategy will be felt far beyond defence, with these moves creating large spillover effects to the civilian drone market.  Defence procurement can help firms scale production, de-risk investment, and move more quickly into civilian markets. In addition, many of the technologies that are useful as defence capabilities will assist in commercial settings. For instance, advanced first-person view drones will allow drones to be used more easily for law enforcement and infrastructure inspection. Counter-drone technologies also have clear commercial value, Systems developed to detect and neutralise hostile drones can be deployed to protect airports, prisons, critical national infrastructure, and other sensitive sites.

Together, these applications illustrate how defence-led innovation can unlock the sector’s wider economic potential – estimated by government-commissioned analysis to reach up to £103 billion by 2050, as we highlighted in our recent article. This demonstrates the scale of the commercial opportunities now emerging for businesses and investors, as technologies initially developed for defence are increasingly able to scale into regulated civilian markets, supported by a growing ambition within government to be a world-leader in drone technology.

However, despite this opportunity, risks remain. Defence procurement is politically sensitive and shifts in budget priorities over the course of a parliament could constrain investment. This means that businesses must continue to engage with government to reduce regulatory barriers to create a favourable regulatory environment. Businesses who engage with the government’s existing work on regulatory innovation and help government understand where other challenges exist will reap the benefits of the UK’s focus on the drones sector.

If you’d like to discuss the drones sector and related policy in more detail, please reach out to Jacob on Jacob.walsh@gkstrategy.com