By GK Account Manager and social care policy expert, Jack Sansum

For successive leaders and political parties social care has been politically toxic. From Labour’s 2010 “death tax” to the Tories 2017 “dementia tax”, during the past 22 years, the question of how to improve social care has been explored in 12 “white” or “green” papers or major government consultations, four independent reviews or commissions and numerous parliamentary inquiries.

Indeed, it is now over a year since Boris Johnson stood outside Downing Street promising to “fix the crisis in social care once and for all”. While Johnson previously planned talks within the first 100 days of his administration, aimed at finding a cross-part solution to the issue, the COVID-19 pandemic has turned a medium-term policy goal into an urgent priority.

COVID-19 and the need for a “clear plan”

The COVID-19 crisis has laid out in stark terms the need for social care reform. There have been more than 25,000 excess deaths among care home residents, with care workers having the highest death rate of any occupational group.

A recent report by the Parliamentary Accounts Committee, highlighted that the crisis has revealed the “tragic impact” of delays by successive governments to reform the social care sector. The Committee found that problems in the sector have been compounded by a lack of leadership, accountability, and centralised control for social care. They have called on the Government to publish a “3-point plan” by September, ahead of a potential second wave of COVID-19 infections.

A “Big Bang” blueprint for reform

Reports from Whitehall indicate that Johnson is determined to deliver on his commitment to “tackle the injustice of social care” and to put in place a new funding system to “give every older person the dignity and security they deserve”.

Johnson has drafted in David Cameron’s former policy chief Camilla Cavendish to help finalise these plans, while Rachel Wolf, the policy adviser who co-wrote last year’s Conservative manifesto, has been brought into the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) to oversee a “Big Bang” blueprint for reform.

Once such reform could see social care being brough under the control of NHS England, taking responsibility away from councils in England – together with £22.5bn in annual funding. The move, which would swell the health service’s budget to £150bn, would see services commissioned and budgets controlled by embryonic regional integrated care systems (ICSs). However, legislation would be required to implement such a change, with ICSs still to obtain legal standing.

Funding for a reformed system could see those over-40 in the UK pay an increased level of tax to cover the cost of care in later life. Health Secretary Matt Hancock is an advocate of such a plan, however, in order to succeed with plans for reform, Johnson will need to build cross-party consensus with Labour and the Liberal Democrats who are currently seeking assurances from the Government on significant funding increases, changes to immigration rules and the workforce crisis.

A 73^rd year birthday present?

With plans for reform of the sector appearing to finally be back on the agenda in Whitehall, policy proposals are likely to be examined by a new health and social care taskforce and DHSC, providing significant scope for social care providers to shape the structure and mechanisms of the plans.

To engage with the Government’s plans for reform effectively, organisations will need to understand the wider direction of health and social care policy. Health and social care is GK Strategy’s largest policy area and we are expert at supporting organisations who are operating in highly regulated sectors and helping them to navigate complex markets and build relationships with key decision makers.

With the Government signalling its intention to deliver on its commitment to shake up the social care system, there are plenty of opportunities for social care providers to benefit.

For more information or if you would like to speak to the GK team, please contact: Jack Sansum on jack@gkstartegy.com

With the UK and world economy facing unprecedented economic disruption, there has been little peace at Her Majesty’s Treasury for many months now, and the Autumn looks to be just as busy – the Chancellor has promised to deliver a Budget and a multi-year Spending Review, and both (as well as Brexit!) are going to take a great deal of preparation.

The focus of the Budget is likely to be on sustaining and restoring economic growth, in order to prevent a surge in unemployment as the Furlough Scheme ends.  If the economy is sagging again, the Chancellor could consider a reduction in VAT, though the impacts of this might be modest if growth is being suppressed not by consumer incomes but by a second virus surge. Other options include reducing employers national insurance contributions or even (whisper it!) extending the Furlough Scheme for any sectors still “shut down” by COVID-fighting regulations. Extending the Furlough Scheme or “picking sectors” to stay in the scheme are certainly not options the Chancellor wants to adopt, but all bets are off if there is a significant second wave of the virus.

But what about the Spending Review? Given the government is projecting a fiscal deficit this year of mind-boggling size (twice the level of 2009/10, after the financial crisis), you might have thought that the Spending Review would be all about cuts and dividing up the pain. But the Chancellor and Prime Minister don’t want to see a return to austerity – or certainly not yet. They would be worried that spending cuts would drive economic growth back down, and they also appreciate that there is limited appetite for more austerity after ten years of squeezing the public sector. Somewhat surprisingly, therefore, the Chancellor is still planning to set future spending plans (three years worth for current spending, and four for capital spending) in which spending will be rising modestly in real terms – this combination of a massive deficit and higher real spending has only really been experienced previously in war years.

Other than modestly rising real spending, what should we expect from the Review? Well, continued largesse for the NHS and social care, as the government has to write a spending “blank cheque” for COVID related costs and for helping the NHS catch up eventually with the growing backlog of non COVID work. And no doubt there will be significant other public spending pressures from dealing with the pandemic.

But the government can also be expected to use the multi-year settlement to “look beyond” COVID and seek to deliver some of the pledges in its election manifesto. This could include more spending in targeted areas of the education system, perhaps to improve post-16 technical and vocational education and to “level up” opportunity in areas of the country with poor education outcomes. It will also include more infrastructure spending – perhaps targeted towards areas such as the North and Midlands, where the government has both economic and political aspirations. It will be fascinating to see if the Prime Minister’s adviser, Dom Cummings, manages to secure real money and policy substance to back his ambition to spread new science and innovation industries across the country, and out of London and the South-East. How will the government choose to back the “winning sectors” of the future, and can these businesses really be nurtured in the parts of the country that arguably most need the extra investment? And what of the pledge to back the zero carbon businesses of the future? How will that be realised?

The Spending Review also pledges to look at the way in which central government delivers public services and infrastructure. Whitehall civil servants will be looking nervously at what this might mean. Will the civil service be dramatically “re-purposed”? Will more powers be devolved from Whitehall and Westminster?

As well as announcing all the “positives” about extra spending on health, education, science and infrastructure, we need to look at what the government does about some of the more challenging items in the Chancellor’s inbox. Will there be a serious attempt to properly fund social care and to re-consider the split of social care costs between the private and public purse? Will the Chancellor signal a move away from the state pension “triple lock”, which could be very expensive over the next few decades? How can a government so dependent on pensioner votes cut back on future pension related costs?

We also know that in spite of the current growth in public sector wages, the Treasury will want to reduce public sector settlements in 2021 and beyond, to help control public spending and avoid public sector wages moving above those in the private sector. With inflation likely to be very low, private sector wage growth could collapse, requiring some much tougher public sector settlements.

In this year’s Spending Review there will be relatively little of the pain and anguish that have characterised other such reviews since 2010. But with the public sector deficit surging to 15-20% of GDP, the pain cannot be delayed indefinitely. There is a reckoning to come on taxes and spending. But not for now.

Parliamentary Select Committees have never been more important in shaping policy, nor as accessible to organisations who have the expertise and insights most needed by Government.

Social distancing has presented a perfect storm of challenges in Westminster. The traditional emphasis on face-to-face engagement in the chamber and tea rooms combined with a long-held resistance to incorporating new technology into proceedings has meant that the institutions of Government have had to evolve quickly or cease to function.

Credit then to the Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, and his office who by in large were able to ensure the technological capabilities were in place for remote voting and digital debate during a time of national need. Controversially though, Leader of the House, Jacob Rees-Mogg, mandated MPs to return in person to Parliament from June – putting to an end the hybrid virtual working model. Some MPs are now put in the invidious position of having to choose between representing their constituents and putting their health – and indirectly that of their families and local communities – at risk by continuous visits to the Capital City.

There is some relief then that Parliamentary Select Committees, the bodies that scrutinise each Government department’s work have been granted permission by the Speaker to continue to work and hold sessions remotely – at least until September. There is agreement that this will assist Committees to operate in the most effective way possible. Bernard Jenkin MP, chairman of the influential Liaison Committee, has said that it would ensure all MPs could participate “on a fair and equal basis during the current pandemic.”

Importance of Select Committees & how they have adapted during COVID-19

It is important that these Committees are supported to operate as effectively as possible within the circumstances because, as GK has outlined previously, the profile and independence of Select Committees is increasing, as is the volume of inquiries they undertake. The pandemic appears to be accelerating not reversing these trends. GK has seen first-hand how effective Committees have been in scrutinising the Government’s response and even influencing its policy agenda.

Virtual Inquiries are the most obvious change to the work of Select Committees, and this has influenced the behaviour of MPs and their interactions with those giving evidence. Circumstances dictate that MPs need to be focused and economical with their questions. Furthermore, there seems to be less time and opportunity for political grandstanding and point-scoring. However, this is also no doubt influenced by the sense of unity that comes from a national crisis – perhaps a manifestation of the more constructive tone being championed by the new leader of the opposition, Keir Starmer.

However, it is clear that not having to appear in person has lessened the fear factor for Ministers being questioned by Committee members. The ability to claim a Ministerial scalp or get the headline-grabbing ‘gotcha’ moment has been diluted.

For instance, the Prime Minister’s first appearance in front of the Liaison Committee last month exposed a lack of detailed knowledge, and his inability to take some subjects seriously, e.g. female representation on senior decision making bodies. He used a mixture of charm, diversion and bluster to get through some of the trickier moments.

Overall, he came through it relatively unscathed. However, the session would have been significantly more awkward with a higher likelihood of negative press had the Prime Minister been physically in front of the Committee, where they could see the whites of his eyes and be less constrained by time and internet connectivity.

How external organisations should engage

COVID-19 has demonstrated that the Government does not always have the in-house expertise to devise a strategy and ensure practical delivery of the solutions that will manage the virus and lessen the disruption. This has been demonstrated by the uneven success of antigen testing roll-out, coordinating test, track and trace and the availability of PPE.

The Government has consulted and asked for help because they have not had all the answers to this new and unfamiliar adversary. No.10 and Cabinet Office have worked overtime to understand how non-government bodies can support with solutions and triage their submissions. This refreshing openness from Government is now extending to medium and longer-term plans and solutions. Direct award of contracts also means that public-private collaboration can be agreed faster.

The proactive listening mode has also extended to Select Committees who have a duty to focus on the impact of COVID-19 within their remit. To do this effectively, they need to be briefed on the latest issues and challenges within sectors and to consult for potential solutions. As an example, The Education Select Committee has just finished collating responses on their mammoth inquiry into how “COVID-19 is affecting all aspects of the education sector and children’s social care system.”

The Committee is seeking views on short and long term disruption and the range of stakeholders who impacted and feeding in submissions is enormous – from nurseries to apprentice schemes and local authorities to care providers.

This pressing need presents golden opportunities for trade associations, the third sector and commercial organisations with the appetite to engage. Never has Parliament been so keen to learn and be advised by such a diverse range of stakeholders.

Organisations should be ambitious about making representations to Select Committees. GK recommends monitoring the most relevant Committees to your sector, taking advice at the earliest indication of a relevant inquiry or call for submission being announced. This allows time to liaise with committee clerks about the scope of an inquiry and provides sufficient time to agree on key messages, draft a written response and – if called to give evidence – begin developing Q&As and taking an assessment of the characteristics of the Committee.

GK are specialists in preparing organisations for the unique and challenging experience of providing evidence to a Parliamentary Select Committee. Our training package is tailored for each client depending on their needs, objectives, and the scope of the inquiry. You can find out more about our offer here.

Only a year ago, British politics was dominated by the debate about Brexit. It says a lot for the impact of COVID-19 that since early March the virus and its huge economic, health and social impacts have relegated Brexit news to a few paragraphs on the inside pages of one or two Brexit-focused newspapers. But Brexit has in no sense gone away. The end of the transition period on 31st December 2020 looms ever closer, and Boris Johnson has made clear that in spite of COVID, he is not willing to contemplate an extension of this transition period. Boris Johnson may not wish to disappoint the Eurosceptic voters he was able to win over in the December 2019 election, and he may also be calculating that pushing Brexit through during this period of extraordinary economic turbulence will both mask any negative impacts and also put pressure on other EU member states (more nervous than ever about the state of their economies) to strike a pragmatic deal

To download the paper click here: Brexit Where next

“Some reshuffles are about changing policy directions. Others are about chopping out the Cabinet “dead wood”. This one was about control – specifically, increasing the control over government from 10 Downing Street, including Boris Johnson’s powerful adviser, Dominic Cummings. Out went some senior ministers who Number 10 didn’t consider to be sufficiently “on side”. But the most significant move to “take control” was the insistence that Chancellor Sajid Javid should either consent to joint policy making between Numbers 10 and 11 Downing Street, or leave his post. Mr. Javid chose the latter option.

“Boris Johnson is not the first PM to discover in office that the Treasury can be far more powerful than the centre of government at Number 10. Number 10 has few human resources compared with the mighty Treasury, and limited direct options to shape economic and social policy. There are only three ways of resolving the power imbalance – for the PM to support a Chancellor he completely trusts and works with closely (Cameron/Osborne); for the PM to cede economic policy to the Chancellor but make occasional bids for influence (Blair/Brown), or for the PM to try to create a mechanism to force the Treasury to work hand in glove with his own advisers. The latter is now the option being pursued with the new Chancellor, Rishi Sunak.

“Just how much will the change in Chancellor result in a big change in policy – with extra public spending, and more borrowing to fund it? I doubt that the policy consequences will be quite as big as now predicted by many – Javid was already committed to extra borrowing to fund infrastructure spending, and the new Chancellor’s  CV hardly indicates that he is likely to turn into a big spender or pursue fiscally incontinent policies. What Mr. Cummings and Mr. Johnson clearly hope is that there will now be a much closer working relationship between Numbers 10 and 11 – and though Mr. Johnson cannot afford to lose another Chancellor anytime soon, the ruthlessness that he has demonstrated in this reshuffle will concentrate the minds of all senior ministers.

“What else is worth noting from the reshuffle? Certainly the appointment of Suella Braverman to the post of Attorney General – serious friction between the government and the judiciary seems likely. And while the fate of junior ministers usually doesn’t matter much, the departure of universities minister Chris Skidmore looks interesting. Skidmore was well respected by the universities sector, and appeared to take their “side” on many policy issues. Can we now expect a more radical approach to higher education policy and a revisiting of some of the Augar Review recommendations? This should be watched closely.”