Category Archives: Conservatives

Conservative Party Conference 2025

GK’s Associate Director, Will Blackman, shares his take on the Conservative Conference.

This year’s Conservative Party conference – Kemi Badenoch’s first as party leader – was a major test for the party that has struggled to find its sense of direction after its catastrophic election defeat last year. Against a background of plummeting polling numbers, and criticism of what some see as Badenoch’s low energy and lethargical approach to the job, the opportunity was hers to lose. A successful conference was necessary to stabilise the ship and shore up her position, at least in the short term.

The conference began with a conveniently timed announcement of a new party policy – to leave the European Convention on Human Rights. Other headline grabbing announcements then followed; including a pledge to remove 750,000 illegal migrants, cutting overseas aid to 0.1% of gross national income, and £47bn of cuts to government spending, including welfare. These were preceded before the conference by a pledge to repeal the Climate Change Act 2008, which Badenoch said “tied us in red tape, loaded us with costs, and did nothing to cut global emissions”.

What these policies do tell us is that the Conservative Party has decided where it wants to focus its electoral energies. New policies that are thinly veiled replicas of longstanding Reform or Farage positions, including on migration, aid and net zero, are evidently not intended to appeal to so-called ‘blue wall’ voters that the party lost to disastrous effect to the Liberal Democrats at the last General Election. Instead, the so-called ‘red wall’, where Reform is increasingly at its strongest, it would seem is where the Conservatives want to apply their focus. How far this strategy can take the party, which continues to be out-polled by Reform by more than two-to-one, will be the defining story of the Conservative Party in this parliament, and of Badenoch’s leadership.

The conference itself was something of a mixed bag. Footfall was clearly significantly down on previous years, with reports of fringe events being cancelled and photos of a half empty conference hall on social media, all adding to the general sense of malaise. However, on the whole, shadow cabinet performances were fairly assured, with no major missteps or negative headlines. To that extent, the conference largely delivered what the party leadership needed it to.

The dog that didn’t bark during conference was further high-profile MP defections to Reform; much speculated about in recent weeks and hinted at by Nigel Farage himself following his own party’s conference. Whether it was ever true or if it was a case of cold feet, the Conservative leadership will have breathed a sigh of relief, at least for the moment.

Badenoch’s own speech on Wednesday was, on all accounts, a good performance. It won’t have escaped some people’s notice that many of her policy commitments appear to involve reversing policy decisions taken by the last Conservative government, with those on energy and net zero being the most obvious. Nevertheless, it was a speech that delivered the goods for now and received a strong reception from those in the hall. The announcement that a future Conservative government would abolish stamp duty will be music to the ears of many party members. However, with the prospect of a Conservative government taking office any time soon looking highly remote, the more interesting question will be whether the Labour government feels under pressure to make any moves of its own in this area between now and the next general election.

On balance, Badenoch has probably given just enough on policy and performance to see off any immediate threat to her position. However it remains the case that next year’s local elections will be the crunch electoral test for Badenoch’s leadership. Whilst some of the murmuring may fall away for now, without a significant positive change in the party’s polling position and as MPs grow increasingly concerned about losing their own seats, her longer-term future remains far from secure. Having only lost office last year, the Conservatives need more time for memories to fade on their record in office and to benefit from the failings of the Labour government. Unfortunately for Badenoch, with little discernible movement in the polls, time is not on her side.

Making the most of party conference season

GK Strategy is pleased to share its guide to effective engagement with policymakers during party conference season.

Insight from the GK team on making the most of party conferences can be accessed here: https://gkstrategy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Engaging-at-Party-Conference-Season-GK-Strategy-September-2025.pdf

Westminster in 2025: Policy Shifts and Political Risks

GK is delighted to present its ‘Westminster in 2025’ report which sets out the key policy shifts and political risks we are expecting to see over the coming 12 months.

The report can be accessed here: Westminster in 2025 – Policy Shifts and Political Risks

GK Strategy – General Election Update

General Election Results Briefing

The GK team reacts to the 2024 General Election results, with GK’s Strategic Advisers sharing their insights on Labour’s historic victory, and the implications for Sir Keir Starmer’s new government.

To read our briefing please click here.

Will Sunak’s Latest Reset Work?

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett examines the Prime Minister’s recent speech at Policy Exchange and whether he can address the Conservative Party’s declining fortunes.

Rishi Sunak turns his attention to security in bid to tackle Labour’s poll lead.

Following a dismal set of local election results and the high-profile defection of Dover MP Natalie Elphicke to Labour, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has attempted to reset the political agenda. He used his latest relaunch at Policy Exchange, a Conservative-friendly think tank, to portray himself as the best leader to guide the country through what he described as the “dangerous and transformational” years ahead.

References were made throughout to ensuring the UK’s security in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It was also telling that Sunak made a pitch to voters on the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence – an area where he will feel comfortable promoting his tech credentials against the Labour leader Keir Starmer, who is 17 years his senior.

It is not unusual for incumbent (and unpopular) governments to paint opposition parties as inexperienced and incapable at a time of potential national peril. Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown famously argued “this is no time for a novice” in the wake of the 2008 financial crash amid David Cameron’s growing popularity. However, to go for this tactic right at the start of a general election campaign does suggest Sunak’s No.10 operation is running out of levers to pull to tackle Starmer’s seemingly unassailable lead in the polls.

Sunak’s pivot into security marks a clear distinction from his previous attempts to put the Conservatives on the path to election victory. At the 2023 Conservative Party Conference, he tried to paint himself as the change candidate and separate himself from the then 13 years of Conservative rule. Sunak was subsequently forced to adopt a continuity-focused strategy and defend the Conservatives’ record in office following David Cameron’s return as Foreign Secretary later that year.

The extent to which Sunak’s latest reset will work will depend on whether the electorate is still listening. The Conservative Party can highlight its commitment to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, a pledge yet to be matched by Labour, who have adopted the looser definition of meeting the 2.5% figure “as soon as resources allow.” However, with Labour so far ahead in the polls and three changes of tack in less than a year, it does raise the prospect that the Prime Minister is trying to engage an electorate which is simply no longer interested in what the Conservatives have to offer.

The Impact of National Party Popularity on Local Politics

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett and GK Adviser Rebecca McMahon discuss the extent to which voter perception of national parties will shape the upcoming local election results.

Can local Conservative campaigners turn the tide on a bleak national picture?

Labour’s national polling lead over the Conservatives appears deeply entrenched. According to YouGov, the Party has held a 20+ point lead since September 2022. While on a national level the polls indicate that the Conservatives could be heading for annihilation in 2024, could there be a ray of hope for Conservative mayors and councillors ahead of the local elections on 2 May? Does national polling translate to voter preferences locally?

Support for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson’s leadership only consistently fell behind Labour following high-profile events such as Owen Paterson’s breaching of parliamentary rules on lobbying and the Partygate scandal. Rishi Sunak (with a little help from Liz Truss’ short-lived premiership) has been unable to turn the tide on the Party’s lack of national appeal.

Sunak has been unable to solidify Conservative support in the red wall – a key element of its 2019 voter coalition – and polling indicates that all red wall seats won will return to Labour at the upcoming general election, expected in October or November. Traditional Conservative voters from both wings of the Party are also deserting it over perceived policy failings. Voters focused on immigration policy are increasingly voicing support for Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats are making inroads with environmentally aware voters in Southern England.

However, with local elections taking place in early May, will these national trends translate to local level results?

Pollster Ipsos Mori has found that 42% of voters considered local factors most important in determining their vote in local elections. However, 33% of those polled also said that party policies on national issues were a decisive factor.

Conservative mayoral candidates have sought to distance themselves from their Party’s national brand and promote their personal appeal ahead of polling day. Andy Street, the West Midlands Mayor, has largely excluded references to the Conservative Party from his campaign material and, by his own admission, is running an individual ‘brand Andy’ campaign. Similarly, Conservative MP Ben Bradley, candidate for the East Midlands mayoralty, admitted to adopting a similar strategy, saying there is “clearly not a brilliant national picture”.

The extent to which these candidates can successfully separate themselves from the national party brand may be crucial to their success at a local level. However, with a third of voters saying party policies on national issues will be key in deciding how they vote in local elections, local campaigners could be bound by their Party’s national fortunes.