Author Archives: GK Strategy

Stuck in the middle with you? Ed Davey, the Lib Dem party conference and the moderate fight

GK Associate Director Thea Southwell Reeves and Adviser Mariella Turley share their reflections on the recent Lib Dem Party Conference in Bournemouth

The Lib Dem conference was a prime opportunity for the party to remind voters of who they are politically and what they offer. A combination of publicity stunts and clever campaign strategies sent 72 Lib Dem MPs to parliament at the last election – the party’s biggest electoral success for over a century. For leader Ed Davey, the challenge was to usher in a new, serious party that could offer a credible alternative to voters dissatisfied with the parties on the traditional left and right of British politics. If this was his mission, he may have missed the mark. His decision to march into conference as the head of a marching band while his party was having yet another row over trans rights, has not given much reassurance to potential voters (outside the conference hall walls) that the party represents a serious electoral alternative.

Although Davey remains in a strong position as leader with the support of a mostly happy party behind him, the public is growing weary of his endless stunts. Polling conducted by More in Common was presented to members at conference and showed that more than 60% of voters think the party’s publicity stunts make them look less serious. Many voters are also still unsure what the party stands for.

Much of the focus of the four-day conference was on positioning the Lib Dems as the only credible opposition to Reform UK. Former leader Tim Farron took to the stage adorned in the Union Jack flag in a bid to frame the party as a progressive voice that can reclaim patriotism for the centrist majority. Davey’s speech centred on criticism of Reform and included claims that Nigel Farage wants to liberalise UK gun laws. The slogan ‘don’t let Trump’s America become Farage’s Britain’ echoed throughout.

We did get a flavour of some policy. Party members voted to revise the Lib Dems’ 2045 net zero target to align with the government’s 2050 net zero goal. Duncan Brack, chair of the Lib Dems’ climate working group, accepted that the earlier deadline had become unrealistic thanks to previous government efforts. Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper used her speech to unveil plans for a windfall tax on big banks to fund an Energy Security Bank. The bank would offer loans to homeowners and small businesses to invest in insultation, solar power and heat pumps. However, Cooper was forced to admit that no formal conversations have taken place with any banks to date. The Lib Dem science and technology spokesperson Victoria Collins hinted at tighter social media regulation, proposing the introduction of warnings on addictive apps and a two-hour cap on scrolling for under 18s. Davey used his leader’s speech to outline some key policy objectives including a new customs union with the EU, cutting energy bills in half by 2050, a guarantee of starting urgent cancer treatment within two months of diagnosis for all patients, and discounted visas for US cancer researchers.

Those hoping that the party’s annual conference would provide clarity on the Lib Dems’ role in the British political ecosystem are likely to feel none the wiser. Davey’s closing speech pitches the party as a safe space for disgruntled voters on the left and the right. A place for both Labour voters who are frustrated with Starmer’s performance in his first year of government and Conservative voters who feel profoundly anxious about Badenoch’s drift to the right. Translating that into clear narratives around policy will be deeply challenging for the party and risks political incoherence. The party’s pitch to be the moderate voice of British politics requires considerable skill and acumen to sell to a voting public that is currently more attracted to polarising policies.

The fundamental question for conference was how the party can build on its 2024 electoral success. Instead of publicity stunts for media attention, Davey should put his energy into carving out a distinct message to voters. The party has neither the finances nor the political capital to campaign on all issues so they would be wiser to focus on developing appealing centrist policies such as ambitious integration with the EU, a compassionate approach to immigrants and a more socially liberal attitude to equal rights. These are the big-ticket items most likely to appeal to both the former one nation Tories and the liberal left and help the Lib Dems seize the centre ground.

GK Strategy Formally Expands Political Advisory Services to United States

GK has agreed a formal strategic partnership with Washington DC based Anchor Advisors to provide integrated insights for private equity investors navigating transatlantic M&A transactions.

GK Strategy is delighted to announce its formal expansion to the United States, to support its private-asset investor clients navigate and engage with policymaking at a federal and state level.

The partnership brings together GK Strategy’s deep expertise in the UK’s policy and regulatory environment with Anchor Advisors’ experience of supporting private equity investors navigate US policy at a state and federal level. The two firms will support private equity and private credit clients and their portfolio companies by providing robust insight to better anticipate regulatory change, assess political risk, and identify opportunities in both markets.

Louise Allen, CEO of GK Strategy said: “We’re delighted to announce the formal partnership between GK Strategy and Anchor Advisors. Private-asset investments are increasingly being shaped by fast-moving policy developments which have the potential to have significant impacts on the commercial environments for businesses operating in both the UK and the US.

Private equity and private credit firms, and the companies they own, are also increasingly looking beyond their traditional geographies to identify compelling investment opportunities, and to limit their exposure to any single region. GK’s partnership with Anchor Advisors means we can offer our clients a clear, connected perspective on how regulatory shifts in London and Washington could impact valuations, deal structures, and long-term strategies.”

Erin Caddell, President of Anchor Advisors, added: “Investors want certainty and foresight. Our partnership allows us to deliver precisely that, by providing clients with comprehensive analysis that spans both sides of the Atlantic, from opportunities presented by US federal and state government action to sector-specific funding trends.”

The partnership reflects a growing demand from private equity and private credit investors for tailored political and regulatory intelligence. By combining local insight with international perspective, GK Strategy and Anchor Advisors will support investors not only to mitigate risk but also to identify new growth opportunities in an increasingly complex global policy environment.

The new international advisory service will be led by Lizzie Wills, Senior Partner and Head of Private Equity at GK Strategy, and President of Anchor Advisors Erin Caddell.

For more information about GK’s US coverage, or to arrange an introductory meeting with the GK team in Washington D.C, please be in touch with Lizzie Wills on lizzie.wills@gkstrategy.com or 07456 794 568.

Opportunity or Uncertainty? What the government reshuffle means for food and agriculture businesses

The government’s latest reshuffle has moved two Defra heavyweights to new departments. Rt Hon Steve Reed MP and Daniel Zeichner MP had invested time and energy in building relationships with the food and farming industries and getting to grips with the challenges faced by businesses in each. With a new secretary of state heading up the department and a new farming minister now appointed, the challenge for both the ministerial team and the sector is to hit the ground running and ensure policy progress does not stall.  

The first all-female ministerial team, the new Defra team is certainly groundbreaking. Each minister brings experiences from different backgrounds and with that, a different set of priorities. For businesses in the food and agricultural sectors, these appointments signal both opportunity and uncertainty, raising questions about how the department will approach issues like rural growth, food security, and land management.  

A fresh new ministerial line up at Defra presents farming and agricultural businesses with a wealth of opportunities. In the aftermath of a reshuffle, businesses should be thinking about how to best introduce themselves and strike up a relationship with the new team. While getting to grips with their briefs, ministers will be seeking solutions to the challenges they face. Aligning your business with the government’s priorities, and offering tangible solutions, will be the most effective way to gain trust.  

New Appointment: Emma Reynolds – Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 

Emma Reynolds was appointed as Secretary of State for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs on 5 September 2025, replacing Steve Reed. Reynolds joins Defra from the Treasury, where she served as Economic Secretary to the Treasury and City Minister. She was elected as the MP for Wycombe last year. 

The reaction to Reynolds’ appointment from the agricultural community has been largely positive. Shortly after assuming the role, Reynolds met with NFU President Tom Bradshaw, who described their meeting as a ‘constructive and positive conversation’. Speaking to the Farmers Weekly Podcast, Jonathan Roberts of the Country, Land and Business Association stated that Reynolds is ‘pretty interested’ in farming and that she understands the challenges that the industry is facing. In a year where farmers have been protesting in Westminster, particularly over the issue of inheritance tax relief, rebuilding trust between the agricultural community and the government is crucial. Reynolds’ background in the Treasury could also be an advantage for the industry. Whilst she might lack experience in dealing with agricultural issues, her financial acumen and understanding of how the Treasury works is an important starting point for unlocking rural growth and protecting the industry. 

New Appointment: Dame Angela Eagle CBE – Minister of State (Minister for Food Security and Rural Affairs) 

Dame Angela replaced Daniel Zeichner MP as Minister for Food Security and Rural Affairs as part of last week’s cabinet reshuffle. Eagle joins Defra from the Home Office, where she served as Minister of State for Border Security and Asylum. She has been the MP for Wallasey for over thirty years and has a wealth of experience in both government and the shadow cabinet. 

Eagle’s appointment has attracted a mixed reaction from the agricultural community. Whilst Eagle’s profile as a senior Labour MP might result in farming becoming a significant issue on the policy agenda, she is seen more as a political operator rather than a sector insider. Despite the backlash regarding changes to inheritance tax relief for agricultural assets, Zeichner was praised for his ability to build relationships with the farming community. Therefore, it is important that Eagle engages with the sector to the same extent and grasps the realities of the challenges faced by the agricultural community. 

Existing Appointment: Emma Hardy MP – Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State (Minister for Water and Flooding) 

Emma Hardy MP was appointed to her current ministerial position in July 2024, having previously served as Shadow Minister for Environmental Quality and Resilience. Hardy is a trained teacher and worked for the National Union of Teachers before entering politics.  

Since taking office, Hardy has dedicated significant funding to enhance resilience against flooding. This includes £60 million in recovery payments to farm businesses, and £50 million to support internal drainage boards in reducing flood risks in rural areas. Hardy has also been proactive in supporting the construction of new infrastructure to enhance water security, such as the Havant Thicket Reservoir. 

However, Hardy has been involved in flashpoints between the government and the agricultural sector. In January 2025, the government rejected an application from British Sugar and the NFU to use an emergency neonicotinoid pesticide on sugar beet, with Hardy stating that the decision was made to protect bees. This illustrates the complexity of government decision making when balancing agricultural productivity with environmental impact. This dynamic is likely to continue throughout the remainder of this parliament.   

Existing Appointment: Mary Creagh MP – Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State (Minister for Nature) 

Mary Creagh MP was appointed as Minister for Nature in July 2024. Creagh has an extensive background in environmental affairs, as previous chair of the Environmental Audit Committee and previous shadow Defra secretary of state.  

Key milestones for her tenure as Minister for Nature include the announcement of a Nature Restoration Fund, which promises to work alongside farms in supporting conservation efforts, and a £1.1 billion boost to improving local recycling services in England. In June 2025, Creagh also announced a £13.6 million scheme to support farming and cut food waste by redistributing surplus produce to homelessness charities and food banks.  

Existing Appointment: Baroness Hayman of Ullock – Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State (Lords Minister) 

Baroness Hayman has been a Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at Defra since July 2024, bringing with her extensive parliamentary and environmental experience. Baroness Hayman took up her peerage in the House of Lords in 2020. She served as Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs between 2017 and 2019, and later the Shadow Environmental Spokesperson from 2020 to 2024. 

As a passionate animal welfare advocate, most of Baroness Hayman’s parliamentary activities fall under that responsibility. However, she has also sought to promote the interests of British farmers in supporting government efforts to protect livestock by implementing preventative measures against the spread of foot and mouth disease.  

Private firms poised to benefit from turmoil surrounding U.S. government economic data

By Erin Caddell, Anchor Advisors LLC, in partnership with GK Strategy

Controversy surrounding the U.S. government’s aggregator of economics data has shone a spotlight on privately held firms that gather comparable information. Private economic data-collection firms are likely to enjoy policy-driven tailwinds amidst a period of questioning of the validity of government statistics and pressure on federal spending.

President Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEnterfer in August after a monthly employment report announced downward revisions of U.S. jobs created in May and June of more than 250,000, plus a less-than-expected reading of 73,000 new jobs in July (BLS reported 5 September that 22,000 jobs had been created in August). Trump claimed the jobs numbers were “rigged” to undermine his Administration (Trump ramped up his broadsides further following a 9 September BLS report that lowered its estimates of job creation in the year ending March 2025 by more than 900,000, the largest such revision in its history).

Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, a Trump loyalist, chief economist of the conservative Heritage Foundation and a BLS critic, to replace McEnterfer as the next Commissioner. Antoni has suggested that if confirmed he may temporarily suspend release of the monthly employment report to validate its methodology. Critics argue Antoni is unqualified since he has never worked in government, while his predecessor spent 20 years at the U.S. Census Bureau and Treasury Department prior to her appointment. Antoni’s detractors have argued further that an overtly partisan Commissioner would undermine public perception of BLS.

Private economic data-collection firms have an opportunity to benefit regardless of Antoni’s fate. If Antoni is confirmed, analysts will mine BLS’ data for signs of political bias. If rejected, the agency will face months without a confirmed leader. Regardless, any sustained run of reported job losses would surely draw further ire from Trump, ratcheting pressure on BLS further. Additionally, the next Commissioner will have to reckon with lower funding and staffing. The Trump Administration has recommended to Congress that BLS’s budget be cut by 8% in F2026, with staffing reduced to an 11-year low (shown below), though this recommendation is subject to Congressional approval. The controversy appears to have already hit BLS’ workforce, with some one-third of leadership positions at the agency reportedly vacant.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) – Congressional Appropriation and Headcount

Fiscal year Appropriation FTEs
2016 609,000 2,195
2017 609,000 2,185
2018 612,000 2,022
2019 605,000 2,057
2020 655,000 1,961
2021 655,000 1,965
2022 687,952 1,949
2023 697,952 2,023
2024 697,952 2,058
2025 703,952 2,019
2026E 647,952 1,851

Source: U.S. Department of Labor. Note: F26E represents DOL’s recommendation to Congress.

Who to Watch

Several players appear positioned to leverage the opportunity to pick up the slack amidst concerns about validity of BLS data, including LinkUp, PriceStats and Yipitdata, as well as industry veterans ADP and Manpower.

LinkUp uses data sent directly by companies as well as publicly available information to provide analysis of national and local employment trends. LinkUp was acquired in November 2024 by GlobalData, a publicly traded U.K.-based firm (London stock ticker DATA). Lightcast provides a similar service, and last year was acquired by KKR. In the inflation arena, PriceStats is a self-funded firm founded in 2011, which uses public information to generate daily inflation reports in the U.S. and 24 other countries. Similarly, Yipitdata uses automated scans of millions of websites to assess changes in consumer behavior; Yipitdata raised $475m from Carlyle in 2021. Numerator is a startup that uses online surveys to help companies assess perceptions of their products and brands with consumers. While not exact parallels to BLS, these companies could reposition their businesses to more directly capture employment data.

The best-known alternative to the BLS is a monthly report produced by payroll administrator ADP. Similarly, staffing firm Manpower Group produces a quarterly survey on U.S. staffing trends. While less comprehensive than BLS’, there is an opportunity for ADP or Manpower to expand their data sets – and charge for the service – given the turmoil at BLS.

Historically, the federal government’s dominant place as the provider of U.S. economic data has made the notion of private-sector replacements seem woefully inadequate. Yet as with many developments in Trump’s second term, wishing for a “return to normal” is just that – a wish. The credibility of government economic data will continue to be questioned, while BLS’s funding and staffing pressures persist. The private sector has a clear opportunity to step in and fill the void.

Reform party conference highlights Farage’s professionalisation drive

Since the 2024 general election, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has focused on shifting the perception that the party is a ‘one man band’. While Reform has outperformed both Labour and the Conservatives in the opinion polls throughout the summer, Farage is aware that there remain serious questions about whether his party is capable of governing effectively should it win the next general election.

On 5 September, as Reform kicked off the 2025 party conference season in Birmingham, it seemed as if the party had been successful in attracting much of the political media’s attention. This was a noticeable departure from previous years where Labour and Conservative conferences had dominated the news cycle.

The breaking news of a cabinet reshuffle following Angela Rayner’s resignation threatened to overshadow the first day of Reform’s conference. However, the party leadership spotted an opportunity to highlight the crisis that was enveloping the government and present Reform as a serious and professional alternative. As a result, Farage’s speech was pushed forward by three hours to ensure that he could be the first of Keir Starmer’s political opponents to react to Rayner’s departure from government.

Farage did not hold back, arguing that the government was ‘deep in crisis’ and was filled with people who were ‘wholly unqualified’ to run the country. He spoke of a Labour Party that was fractured and short of ideas, contrasting it with his own party, which he argued was ‘on the rise’. Farage claimed that Reform would be ready for any scenario, including an early general election. As a result, a new department would be established within the party focused on preparing for government. In addition to the new department, Farage said that the party would also prioritise the recruitment of experienced political operators – and used the opportunity to introduce former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries to party members, following her defection from the Conservative Party.

Regarding its electoral strategy, Farage stated that Reform views the 2026 Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections as important opportunities, viewing them as an ’essential building block’ ahead of a general election. He added that Reform would aim to vet 5,000 candidates by next year to give itself the best chance of success in those elections.

Unsurprisingly, Farage did not make any detailed policy announcements, instead choosing to use his speech to energise Reform’s base. He told party members in attendance that if elected Reform would make cuts to the welfare system, scrap ‘harmful’ net zero policies, and stop small boats crossing the English Channel within two weeks of passing legislation. These pledges were also heard by business leaders, and lobbyists attending Reform’s conference for the first time – a sign that the party is now regarded as a serious contender. Reform also followed the example of the more established political parties by hosting fringe/policy events and business stands away from the main conference hall, further highlighting the party’s efforts to build new relationships with the UK’s business community.

Despite these efforts, Farage still needs greater message discipline from Reform members if he is to convince voters that the party is fully capable of running the country. During fringe events, orthodox policy conversations were disrupted by the sharing of conspiracy theories about international institutions and vaccines. Farage himself has also been keen to recreate the rambunctious energy of the Trump campaign rallies that he has attended at Reform’s events. As a result, there is a risk that unnecessary headlines will be generated by overeager and ill-disciplined speakers and attendees that could dent Reform’s attempts at professionalisation. Greater Lincolnshire Mayor Andrea Jenkyns singing a self-written song during her speech is unlikely to alleviate voters’ doubts that Reform has high quality politicians beyond Farage. Likewise, the decision to platform speakers like Lucy Connolly, who had been imprisoned for inciting racial hatred against asylum seekers, is also unlikely to endear the party to voters beyond its traditional base.

It is evident that Reform’s reputation has improved in recent years. However, YouGov polling from 4 September showed that voters still do not trust the party to deliver on key issues such as managing the economy, healthcare, housing, energy, and the cost of living. While the party conference was a small step in the right direction in terms of Reform’s establishment as a major threat to Labour and the Conservatives, it is clear that Nigel Farage still has work to do to professionalise the party and improve its standing on policy issues beyond immigration.