Monthly Archives: May 2025

Local Elections 2025  

The main takeaway from May 2025’s local elections is that Reform UK is now firmly placed among the top players in Westminster. Despite only recently professionalising and mobilising, the party has turned a sea of established Conservative councils a bright turquoise blue. The Conservatives are now rapidly losing electoral support and Reform UK’s Leader Nigel Farage has declared his party the main opposition to the government.  

Reform UK’s sharp rise has been evident since last year’s general election. Translating its position in the opinion polls into electoral success has, however, previously been inhibited by the UK’s first-past-the-post voting system. This saw the party win only five seats in last year’s general election despite receiving 14% of the national vote share. Reform UK has since showed no signs of slowing down, with opinion polls increasingly in their favour in the lead up to this month’s local elections. The party was undoubtedly the big winner of the contest, securing 677 council seats, demonstrating its credentials as a serious challenger to the two main parties.  

The Conservatives have had the toughest result of all the parties, losing 674 seats overall. Of the 23 councils up for election, they had been in control of 16. Reform UK now control ten, the Liberal Democrats have the keys to three, and a further ten have no overall party control. This is likely to raise questions over Kemi Badenoch’s future as leader of the Conservative Party, although a formal challenge is unlikely to materialise given Conservative MPs’ appetite for stability after a recent series of damaging leadership changes. Conservative headquarters will now have to ensure its strategy is bulletproof if it hopes to fend off the threat of Reform UK and meaningfully challenge the incumbent Labour government at the next general election.  

It was not a successful result for the government either, with Labour losing 187 seats. The Party’s only glimmer of hope can come from returning incumbent mayors in Doncaster, North Tyneside and West of England. While Labour had a smaller pool of seats to defend than the Conservatives, meaning its losses were less severe, keeping this trio of local authorities will be hard to celebrate considering Reform UK came a close second in all of them. With a brand new Reform UK MP overturning Labour’s majority of 14,696 in Runcorn and Helsby by a mere six votes, there is clearly serious dissatisfaction with the government’s direction of travel, undoubtedly causing a serious headache for No.10.  

Two truths emerged from the first real test of the government: Labour must pull through on delivery for the public if it hopes to keep its position in power come the next general election, and the Conservatives need to figure out how to remain as the main opposition party with Reform UK continuing to gather momentum at pace.  

Join us on Thursday 8 May at 9am for our Post Local Elections Webinar with former Treasury Minister Rt Hon David Laws and JL Partners Director Guy Miscampbell to discuss the local election results and what they mean for national politics.  

You can sign up using this link.  

Milking it! Extending the sugar tax for public health and economic gain

This week the government launched a consultation on its plans to tighten the sugar levy. This follows last year’s review of the effectiveness of the SDIL to date. Chancellor Rachel Reeves strongly hinted that the government was considering broadening the scope of the levy at October’s autumn budget and the consultation document does just that.

The government’s proposals include reducing the minimum sugar content level at which the levy applies from 5g to 4g; removing the exemption for milk-based drinks; and removing the exemption for milk substitute drinks. This means milkshakes, pre-made coffees and many of your favourite fizzy drinks will be reformulated or face becoming taxable.

Initial analysis suggests that over 90% of milk-based products will be affected. Initially exempt because milk is a source of calcium for children, the government’s revised position is that any potential health benefits are outweighed by the negative impact of consuming high levels of sugar.

Although the contents of this consultation come as no surprise to those who have been closely following policymaking in this space, it does set the mood music for the upcoming national food strategy and signals a government unafraid to be heavy-handed when it comes to public health. Although the SDIL is widely considered to be a successful and effective policy intervention, the UK’s sugar consumption remains significantly above recommended levels, especially among children. By lowering the sugar thresholds and widening the scope of products, more soft drink producers will be forced to reformulate products or see their production costs increase. However businesses decide to act in response to changing regulations, the government hopes the result is a significant reduction in the nation’s consumption of sugar.

Obesity costs the NHS around £6.5 billion a year. NHS data shows a deeply concerning trend of rising childhood obesity. Almost 10% of children are now living with obesity by the time they start school and 24% of children have tooth decay by aged five thanks to excess sugar consumption. With obesity taking effect earlier in life, the associated costs for the NHS are set to soar to £9.7 billion by 2050. This is especially bad news for a government grappling with a challenging economic environment and acute pressures on public spending. But for Labour, it feels all the more personal because in the most deprived areas the prevalence of obesity can be almost 15% higher than in the least deprived ones – something that the last government’s food strategy picked up on. Tackling health inequality is a huge part of the government’s commitment to ensuring all children and young people have the same opportunities and start in life.

For industry, there is a fine balance to strike. Full resistance to public health reforms designed to improve the health of our children would leave a bad taste in consumers’ mouths. Developing and maintaining an open, constructive dialogue with government, including showcasing innovative reformulations, will be a far more effective approach. Framed in this way, industry will be able to better make the case that a proportionate approach to SDIL and wider public health reforms will deliver positive health and economic change.

Now is the time to engage. Those who can successfully demonstrate alignment with the government’s public health goals will be well-positioned for future discussions about the developing national food strategy, which will set the strategic direction of travel for the rest of this parliament and beyond. One thing is for sure, this is unlikely to be the last government intervention in the name of improving the nation’s health.

The consultation runs until 21 July. If you’d like to discuss contributing to it or the wider HFSS policy environment, please contact Lauren on lauren.atkins@gkstrategy.com.