Tag Archives: devolution

View on the Spring Statement - David Laws, GK Adviser

Budget preview: One week to go

In his first budget, to be delivered to the Commons next Wednesday, the Chancellor John Healey will repeat his defining messages: money and power moved out of Westminster and a budget built on fiscal discipline and stability. The detail of the Budget itself is widely expected to focus on families and business – building on the Burnham government’s early theme of ‘breathing space’ for those struggling.

With a week to go, and in striking contrast to the last two budgets delivered by Rachel Reeves, we have so far seen little of the usual speculation or Treasury leaks on policies expected to feature in the headline Statement. The government will want to position this as a ‘no drama’ budget, not least because large spending decisions on welfare, defence, and social care appear delayed until after the budget.

The fiscal inheritance remains rather similar to past budgets, but with higher public sector pay demands, and higher than expected inflation together with in-year spending pressures, departmental spending will need to be addressed with little ‘headroom’ for manoeuvre.

The prime minister has said that he wants to run the most ‘pro-growth and pro-business country in the world’ and the FT has reported that both PM and Chancellor have reassured business leaders there will be no significant tax increases, sticking to the Starmer government’s self-imposed fiscal rules. This therefore means the government is likely to seek short-term measures to alleviate cost of living pressures. Further measures expected in the budget include:

  • Financial and Professional Services: It is now understood that rises to Capital Gains Tax have been ruled out; a move clearly designed to signal that this government is neither anti-business nor anti-wealth. Instead. we expect the chancellor to look to the banking sector as his primary revenue raising source. Whilst this may be consistent with the government’s overall positioning as a government for ‘working people’, protestations from the financial services sector that the government is undermining its international competitiveness will inevitably follow.
  • Education and skills: Reducing the number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) is a priority of this government. The budget is likely to feature further advance payments that pre-empt the recommendations of the Milburn Review, building on the Chancellor’s announcement of a £100 million expansion of apprenticeship brokerage services across mayoral strategic authorities. It will also offer an opportunity to put some funding behind Burnham’s commitment to expanding vocational and technical pathways in schools for students aged 14-16.
  • Health: The health sector will be keen to see further funding for integrated neighbourhood health services, building on plans to bring NHS, council and community services closer together. The budget could also clarify how devolution may give mayors and local leaders greater flexibility over health and social care priorities.
  • Energy: We expect an energy package for low-income households and a further freeze to Fuel Duty. The energy secretary has reportedly been tasked with finding more than £2bn of savings from the department’s budget, with reform of the Boiler Upgrade Scheme expected to contribute to those reductions. While the scheme is expected to remain in place, cuts to its £2.7bn five-year budget could reduce the level of support available for heat pump installations and slow the uptake of low-carbon heating technologies.

While Burnham remains personally popular in the polls, many think the budget will be the end of his honeymoon period. With the prospect of a Spring 2027 election, we should keep watch for policies that not only consolidate support from the so-called progressive left but also measures aimed at winning back Labour voters who have shifted support away from the party since 2024. With so many of the major reforms that Burnham has committed to – from the National Care Service to electoral reform – deferred until the next parliament, the public will become increasingly restless for progress and change as we hit the halfway point of this parliament. Questions are already being asked what the prime minister plans to do with the landslide majority he currently has in the House of Commons, which polls suggest would be significantly cut or even lost in a general election. The budget will be the government’s chance to set a clear course for the coming months and indeed years, and it will be important that the chancellor and prime minister seize it.

Digital skills

Adult Education: A Model for Devolution?

GK Adviser Rebecca McMahon explores the localisation of adult education and whether it could provide a template for devolution plans in other policy areas.

A rare win for the Levelling Up agenda?

Over the last 13 years, a series of Conservative governments have made various stabs at improving regional inequalities, and by the time of the Levelling Up White Paper 2022, there was a consensus that at least some form of devolution is necessary to heal regional divides and accelerate British growth.

However, plenty of obstacles remain in the way of a strong devolved power system in the UK, stemming both from central government (particularly due to reservations held by the Treasury) and local government (whose various financial difficulties over the last year have undermined their case for greater responsibility over policy and fiscal decision-making.) Plus, recent high-profile blows to the Levelling Up agenda – notably the collapse of the multi-billion HS2 project at the end of last year – have created further setbacks.

However, one of the more successful devolution efforts has materialised in the seemingly unexpected domain of adult skills. The Government kickstarted the devolution of the Adult Education Budget in the 2019-20 academic year, transferring decision-making powers over the pot of money to six Mayoral Combined Authorities (MCAs) plus the Greater London Authority (GLA).

Since then, a further three MCAs have been handed these powers, and the trend of devolution suggests that more deals are to take place in the near future. The success of ‘trailblazer’ deals in Greater Manchester and West Midlands makes this more likely. The Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, confirmed that the North East MCA would also receive a deal as part of the continued ‘Skills for Growth’ agenda.

Labour’s thinking on Adult Education

Central to Labour’s skills agenda is the replacement of the Apprenticeship Levy with the Growth and Skills Levy. Notionally, this points to a more flexible skills and training landscape, with accommodation for all types of learners.

However, some people have expressed concern about the sustainability of this proposal, suggesting that an altered levy would be a step in the wrong direction for apprenticeship uptake, at a time when other viable further education alternatives seem more important than ever. In terms of devolution, Labour have made a lot of noise about their commitment to the cause, threading it through various ‘missions’ upon which they have built their policy agenda, and publishing high-profile reviews by legacy figures like Gordon Brown which showcase their support. But in practice, the landscape is less certain, owing to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal ‘iron fist.’ Given the pressure that the Shadow Chancellor placed on Keir Starmer to backtrack on their flagship £28bn pledge to the green economy, she will be hesitant to hand over budgetary responsibilities to local authorities given their recent track record on finances.

The increasing localisation of adult education budgets in the UK somewhat offers a model for the Government and potential future governments to further the devolution agenda. However, any party will inevitably face a gamble on whether to trust local authorities with increasingly large pots of money and whether this will ultimately reap long-term rewards.