Category Archives: Elections

The Impact of National Party Popularity on Local Politics

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett and GK Adviser Rebecca McMahon discuss the extent to which voter perception of national parties will shape the upcoming local election results.

Can local Conservative campaigners turn the tide on a bleak national picture?

Labour’s national polling lead over the Conservatives appears deeply entrenched. According to YouGov, the Party has held a 20+ point lead since September 2022. While on a national level the polls indicate that the Conservatives could be heading for annihilation in 2024, could there be a ray of hope for Conservative mayors and councillors ahead of the local elections on 2 May? Does national polling translate to voter preferences locally?

Support for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson’s leadership only consistently fell behind Labour following high-profile events such as Owen Paterson’s breaching of parliamentary rules on lobbying and the Partygate scandal. Rishi Sunak (with a little help from Liz Truss’ short-lived premiership) has been unable to turn the tide on the Party’s lack of national appeal.

Sunak has been unable to solidify Conservative support in the red wall – a key element of its 2019 voter coalition – and polling indicates that all red wall seats won will return to Labour at the upcoming general election, expected in October or November. Traditional Conservative voters from both wings of the Party are also deserting it over perceived policy failings. Voters focused on immigration policy are increasingly voicing support for Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats are making inroads with environmentally aware voters in Southern England.

However, with local elections taking place in early May, will these national trends translate to local level results?

Pollster Ipsos Mori has found that 42% of voters considered local factors most important in determining their vote in local elections. However, 33% of those polled also said that party policies on national issues were a decisive factor.

Conservative mayoral candidates have sought to distance themselves from their Party’s national brand and promote their personal appeal ahead of polling day. Andy Street, the West Midlands Mayor, has largely excluded references to the Conservative Party from his campaign material and, by his own admission, is running an individual ‘brand Andy’ campaign. Similarly, Conservative MP Ben Bradley, candidate for the East Midlands mayoralty, admitted to adopting a similar strategy, saying there is “clearly not a brilliant national picture”.

The extent to which these candidates can successfully separate themselves from the national party brand may be crucial to their success at a local level. However, with a third of voters saying party policies on national issues will be key in deciding how they vote in local elections, local campaigners could be bound by their Party’s national fortunes.

View from Westminster: Local Elections Expected to Increase Pressure on the Prime Minister

GK Associate Joshua Owolabi and GK Adviser Noureen Ahmed assess the mood in Westminster ahead of the local elections in May.

Conservative Party (dis)unity in focus ahead of the local elections

With local elections taking place on 2 May, all eyes are firmly on the Conservatives, as the party braces for defeat. Respected psephologists Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings, the Directors of the Local Government Chronicle’s Elections Centre, have predicted that the Party could potentially lose up to 500 seats, if it repeats its poor performance from the 2023 local elections. This would see half of the Tory councillors facing election lose their seats. Despite the optimism from Sunak’s allies that fellow Tory MPs will not agitate for yet another change in leadership, a heavy defeat could be perilous for the Prime Minister.

Speculation continues in Westminster about the implications of defeat for Sunak and his government. In recent months, press coverage has focused on whether a rebel group of MPs and former Tory advisers were plotting to use the election results to further undermine Sunak’s authority. There is already ammunition for the plotters to use, such as the rebellion in mid-April over the Second Reading of the Tobacco and Vaping Bill. The rebellion was orchestrated by the Tory right, and included potential successors, such as Kemi Badenoch. Although the Government won the vote, it was a reminder that party discipline is still lacking – an ominous sign ahead of the local elections.

Sunak’s opponents within the Conservative Party will be well aware of the historical significance of local elections. In 1979, 1997 and 2010 respectively, Thatcher, Blair and Cameron all secured general election victories following strong performances in the local elections that preceded them. As a general election is only a few months away, many would question how a change in leadership would be beneficial to the Party. However, if the Conservatives are routed by Keir Starmer’s Labour, then it presents disgruntled MPs with a choice – are their plans to prevent a general election defeat best served by pressuring the Prime Minister on policy and strategy in private, or are more drastic measures required?

Labour and Gender Equality: A Radical Agenda or All Talk?

Following International Women’s Day earlier in March, GK Adviser Rebecca McMahon looks at what an incoming Labour Government could mean for women’s equality.

Labour’s ambitious women’s equality agenda is one to watch

If the Labour Party wins the upcoming General Election, Rachel Reeves will become the UK’s first female Chancellor of the Exchequer and Angela Rayner is set to become the first female Deputy Prime Minister. The number of women in the current Parliamentary Labour Party is at an all-time high of 52.7% and given the number of prospective parliamentary candidates in seats likely to swing to Labour, the number is likely to remain high.

The party has been accused of hollowing out promises related to more radical policies about climate change and workers’ rights. However, it appears the party remains committed to delivering on its ambitious roster of pledges on women’s equality. At the 2023 Labour Party Conference, Rayner announced her intention to amend the Equalities Act to introduce a legal duty for employers to have sexual harassment prevention measures in place. In Rayner’s rallying speech, she combined a commitment to women’s safety with a promise to make their working lives fairer. Measures included toughening sentences for perpetrators of rape and stalking and halving the levels of violence against women and girls. A crackdown on unfair pay and a promise to “empower women entrepreneurs” was also included.

Translating virtuous ideas on empowerment into robust policy is a difficult process. However, the presence of key female decision-makers in the shadow cabinet demonstrates that Labour is not neglecting the importance of senior women for formulating representative policy. Perhaps this will set a precedent for the party to elect a woman to the top spot for the first time (one area in which the Conservatives currently top the tables, 3-0!).

GK Point of View- Spring Budget 2024

Spring Budget 2024_GK Strategy

The GK team react to the Chancellor’s Spring Budget, with GK Strategic Advisers offering their insight into what this means for the Conservative Party in the run up to the General Election, what the budget means for individuals, as well as the announcement’s wider impact on key British industries.

To read our briefing please use the link above or click here.

Is Sunak trying to bring the Tories back to the centre? Reflections on Rishi’s latest reshuffle.

After the polarising figures of Truss, Johnson and most recently Braverman, Sunak is using his latest reshuffle to resist the Conservative Party’s attempt to shift to the right. By bringing more centrist political figures into the fold, he looks to prepare his government to fight Labour over the centre ground at the next election. And it’s all encapsulated in the appointment of one man…

The eventual sacking of Home Secretary Suella Braverman today has finally given Sunak the political space to undertake the long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle which sees him shed some of the legacy Cabinet members inherited from the Liz Truss cabinet like Therese Coffey and bring in more centrist political figures and Sunak allies into senior government jobs. Even if it has come perhaps a month sooner than Sunak might have wanted.

One of the clearest articulations of this, is the appointment of David Cameron. The former Prime Minister from 2010 to 2016 replaces James Cleverly (who moves to Home Secretary) as Foreign Secretary, despite being out of (frontline) politics for seven years. The move makes a lot of sense from a policy perspective. Bringing back an electorally popular PM, and experienced on the world stage, Sunak will hope Cameron plays a key and senior role in managing the tense situation in Israel-Gaza. However, domestically his appointment – together with the promotion of several special advisers and former ministers who worked during the Cameron and May governments, like Laura Trott and Richard Holden – is signalling to the country that the Party is, if not just presentationally, moving back to the centre ground.

If the Conservatives are staring down the barrel of huge electoral defeat at the next election, it makes sense to shift to a strategy of shoring up the base and minimise damage, from a pragmatic perspective. This means focusing on the Blue Wall seats and those who voted Conservative before Brexit will be amongst those most skittish at the next election, and most at risk of offering their vote to the Lib Dems or Labour. They may have voted for Johnson because there was no alternative, saw the chaos of Liz Truss, and are now perhaps uncomfortable with the direction and tone of the Party led from the likes of Braverman. That is of course not to say that there won’t still be a strong policy approach on home affairs like immigration, but presentationally, the approach from Cleverly will be far more palatable to No.10 than what we have seen from Braverman.

Therefore, seeing the likes of Cameron return will give them a feeling that the Party is back to the one they know. This is not without risk, given his close association with Brexit amongst many middle of the road and remainer voters, but it must be said that Brexit has crashed out of the top issues for voters.

This puts Sunak back in the position to appeal to the electoral centre ground that has been increasingly under attack by Labour in recent months, and will make the Autumn Statement all the more important, as he will want to demonstrate that this is a team ready for the long-term. Even if it is a rather damning indictment on the quality in the parliamentary party, not on least many 2019-ers, who will largely feel overlooked if they don’t sit in this wing of the party.

However, with Cameron and Hunt in Great Offices of State, and ministerial ranks filled with coalition era ministers and former SpAds, it will certainly make Rishi’s approach as the ‘change candidate’ against Keir Starmer all the more difficult. Instead, it feels like Sunak is perhaps going to lean more into the ‘better the devil you know’ message, despite continuing to talk about fresh ideas for the long term.

Perhaps this latest Rishi Reset is the one to shift the dial? Or perhaps, more likely, it is the sign of a government that has run out of road and ideas.

The King’s Speech

Conservative Party shapes political battlegrounds in bid to turn around polling deficit

The first King’s Speech by Charles III and the last before a General Election was noteworthy not for the 21 Bills announced, which will shape the upcoming legislative agenda, but what it revealed politically. Whilst in the short-term today’s ceremony is unlikely to move the dial, it did reveal the foundations upon which the Prime Minister and the Conservative Party will seek to fight the election upon.

The overarching theme was the Government’s commitment to reducing inflation and bringing down the cost of living. The language that accompanied this was ‘making decisions in the long-term interest.’ This is fundamental to the Conservative Party strategy. By next Autumn (the most likely timing for the General Election) household costs will have stabilised and the Party will say to the electorate that they are on the right track and now is not the time to change course. Expect the phrase ‘long term interest’ to feature even more prominently as we look ahead to the Autumn Statement later this month. In the most recent YouGov poll of the most important issues facing the country unsurprisingly the economy is far out in front of the public’s most pressing concerns.

Within the King’s Speech were numerous Bills related to law and order. This is an area of traditional strength for the Conservative Party, however, in recent times the Party has fallen behind Labour on the issue. The recent demonstrations in London and the potential for further action ahead of Armistice Day, the Conservative political machine may see this as an opportunity to push for a hard line approach that they believe will sit well with the majority of voters. The Economic Activities of Public Bodies Bill, which is designed to give ministers the powers to ban public bodies from imposing their own boycotts, divestment or sanctions campaigns against foreign countries is likely to be a focal point in this debate designed to further expose divisions within the Labour Party on conflicts such as Israel-Palestine.

The other major focus area, which wasn’t included as a Bill but was referenced by The King as a priority area for the Government is on the topic of immigration. The King said the Government would continue to crackdown on criminal gangs and control the boats crossing the Channel with the powers conferred to ministers in the previous Parliament. With almost 4 in 10 voters citing immigration as a top three issue the Government is determined that its efforts remain front of mind of voters.

So, with the pitfalls for Labour clear, how can the Party respond? Under the Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves we will continue to ensure fiscal discipline is the priority. By demonstrating a firm grip on public spending and fully costed policies, Reeves will hope to build up enough credibility that when she asks voters ‘do you feel better off after a Conservative government’ the reply will not only be ‘no’, but an electorate confident in voting for a reformed Labour Party. The Party will also feel they are on the right side of the argument when it comes to the transition to Net Zero with regards to the forthcoming Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill, claiming the Government is failing to show leadership and is presiding over a period of ‘dither and delay’.

Labour are also likely to capitalise on the lack of health announcements in the speech despite the policy area trailing only behind the economy in voters concerns. Despite a bill promising to ban the sale of smoking to anyone born on or after 1st January 2009, there were no mentions of NHS reforms or bringing down waiting lists. Perhaps an acknowledgement that the Conservative Party have for now conceded on the issue.

The battle lines have been drawn. Today is the firing gun on the debates in Parliament and the media that are likely to play out between now and the election as the parties vie for your vote.

What can organisations looking to engage in the political process take from this? It is far less about the potential impact of these measures, which may or may not pass, but a guide to how you can align your organisation with the political agenda to ensure your voice is heard and to begin to positively influence the shape of the next Parliamentary session.

For more details on the State Opening of Parliament and the new session, speak to GK Associate Director, David Mitchell david.mitchell@gkstrategy.com