Category Archives: Elections

Across the pond – Insights from our US partners

Mark Linton is a public affairs expert working with clients on US regulatory forecasting and scenario planning. He is a former senior appointee in the Obama Administration and a CoFounder of Hummingbird Advantage, a national public affairs consulting firm working with startups, investors, and established brands to help them win on their top causes.

Q: If you were a betting person, who would win the US election tomorrow?

A: I would rather be Kamala Harris than Donald Trump. The Vice President has a higher overall ceiling of support among the electorate and a better field operation (to contact voters and get them to the polls). Having said that, the race is exceedingly close and it’s very possible Donald Trump could still win. 

Q: Which campaign do you think has received the largest donations from investors?

A: America’s lax campaign finance laws make it incredibly hard to know this, given the proliferation of spending by outside political action committees (PACs) and interest groups, many of which have few disclosure requirements. Donald Trump has received a significant amount of dark money support including from major VC players who back crypto.  

Q: What does each candidate mean for international investment into the US?

A: The care economy, healthcare: If Kamala Harris is elected and Democrats control both chambers of Congress, we would expect to see a concerted push to enact paid family and medical leave, an area where the U.S. lags compared to most European countries. Vice President Harris has also proposed expanding subsidies to help cover health care costs and in general strengthening the Affordable Care Act.

Renewable Energy: Even if Donald Trump is elected, it will be hard – and politically unpopular – to claw back the billions of dollars that have flowed to states for renewables and climate adaptation through the recently passed infrastructure law (the Inflation Reduction Act). We’d expect to continue to see interest in clean energy, upgrades to the nation’s grid, and a focus on new technologies ranging from microgrids to carbon capture and removal.  

Q: What is the most favourable election outcome for US investment into the UK?

A: Kamala Harris will bring a high degree of stability and competence to the White House. For that reason, many business leaders have privately signalled their preference for her as America’s next president. By contrast, most analysts predict a period of heightened political instability at home and abroad if Donald Trump is elected. He has pledged to start a trade war and weaken American alliances e.g., NATO, that undergird much of the western international economic order. A second Trump presidency would also lead to sustained domestic unrest, including potentially general strikes depending on the severity and reach of any unconstitutional orders he gives to the military and federal law enforcement agencies.   

Q: Top three sectors which will benefit from Trump and why?

 A: This depends on his early executive actions, of course, but it’s reasonable to expect that crypto, oil & gas, and defence sectors will do well. 

Q: Top three sectors which will benefit from Harris and why?

 A: Health care, renewables and housing are three sectors that will potentially benefit from existing and new subsidies and tax credits that a Harris administration would likely pursue. 

Q: Most likely candidate to want to negotiate a full fat trade deal with the UK?

A: Both parties are focused on striking trade deals that favour American workers and, in the case of Kamala Harris, include robust environmental and labour protections. Add in Donald Trump’s threat to start a trade war and apply across-the-board tariffs, and a full fat trade deal with the UK seems unlikely in the near term. 

Q: If Trump is elected, how might US protectionism evolve in the next four years? 

A: It will get worse – if we take Donald Trump at his word to pursue a maximally protectionist set of trade deals and apply across the board tariffs. 

Q: If Harris is elected, how might economic policy diverge from that of Biden and the Inflation Reduction Act?

A: Depending on the makeup of the next Congress, we’d expect to see new gains for the housing and healthcare sectors, a boost in consumer spending, and, potentially, new regulations in the tech space. 

Q: What happens to the Republican Party if they lose in November? Should fears of civil unrest be taken seriously?

A: Since the Big Lie in 2020, most elected Republicans have unfortunately embraced baseless lies about the integrity of the US election system, despite it being the most secure and transparent in the world. We know that Donald Trump will not go quietly into the night if he loses. The real question will be how far along elected Republican officials follow him, especially if protests become violent. The best scenario is that an electoral blow against political extremism resets some of the political incentives – in the immediate and longer term – and we begin to see Republican officials join many other voices in calling for calm and support for the rule of law. It will not be surprising if at least some investors and business leaders also add their voices to urging calm. 

Q: Who are the future Democrat heavy weights should Harris lose?  

A: The Democratic Party has no shortage of talent; from current Biden administration cabinet officials to members of Congress and successful Governors. Kamala Harris will have a deep bench to draw from for her cabinet if she is elected president. If she falls short, the Vice President is in good company with an array of incredibly gifted Democratic leaders, many of whom will presumably decide to run for president in four years.  

Q: How will the makeup of the Congress impact policymaking under the next President? What will be the key political priorities and barriers?

A: If both chambers switch – Democrats take the House while Republicans take the Senate, which is a distinct possibility, the question becomes: which major policy areas can garner enough bipartisan support to compel members to pass legislation? Some areas where the political incentives potentially align for bipartisan legislation include the regulation of social media platforms (and possibly AI); some form of paid family leave; defence and some foreign aid.  In addition, if Congress doesn’t renew the Farm Bill soon after the election (in a “lame duck” session of Congress), then the next Congress will have to, regardless of which party controls each chamber. 

Is Starmer Taking a Risk in His Attempt to Broaden Labour’s Appeal?

GK Advisers Noureen Ahmed and Felix Griffin reflect on Natalie Elphicke’s defection to the Labour Party and what this could mean for the Labour Party ahead of the next general election.

Keir Starmer is keen to exploit divisions within the Conservative Party, but is that enough to convince voters that Labour is a government in waiting?

When MPs took to the Common’s chamber for Prime Minister’s Questions on 8 May, we witnessed Natalie Elphicke defect to the Labour Party – the third Conservative MP to do so during this parliament. As a right-wing MP and vocal critic of Labour’s policies, Elphicke’s defection came as a huge shock to many in Westminster. Elphicke has previously accused Labour of being soft on issues related to human rights and immigration. As a result, there have been concerns from several Labour MPs that Labour’s commitment to tackling those issues could be undermined by her admission to the Party. Starmer’s willingness to embrace a defector from the right of the Conservative Party suggests a strategy aimed at broadening Labour’s appeal to Conservative voters, even if it means alienating the party’s left flank and risking Labour’s reputation on key issues such as social justice. This approach has sparked awkward questions about how far Labour’s leadership is willing to go to win Tory votes.

Labour’s strategy may be effective in the short term, creating a perception of decay within the Tory government and encouraging Conservative voters to switch allegiance. However, the success of the Greens and some independent candidates in recent local elections indicates that anti-Tory sentiment does not necessarily translate into enthusiastic support for Labour. To be truly successful, Labour will need both an appealing policy platform to secure votes at the general election and firm support across parliament.

While further defections may seem unlikely, they should not be ruled out entirely. As Sunak continues to face criticism that he is leading an increasingly chaotic government, it is evident that Labour will do everything it can to secure the victory it has long yearned for.

Will Sunak’s Latest Reset Work?

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett examines the Prime Minister’s recent speech at Policy Exchange and whether he can address the Conservative Party’s declining fortunes.

Rishi Sunak turns his attention to security in bid to tackle Labour’s poll lead.

Following a dismal set of local election results and the high-profile defection of Dover MP Natalie Elphicke to Labour, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has attempted to reset the political agenda. He used his latest relaunch at Policy Exchange, a Conservative-friendly think tank, to portray himself as the best leader to guide the country through what he described as the “dangerous and transformational” years ahead.

References were made throughout to ensuring the UK’s security in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. It was also telling that Sunak made a pitch to voters on the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence – an area where he will feel comfortable promoting his tech credentials against the Labour leader Keir Starmer, who is 17 years his senior.

It is not unusual for incumbent (and unpopular) governments to paint opposition parties as inexperienced and incapable at a time of potential national peril. Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown famously argued “this is no time for a novice” in the wake of the 2008 financial crash amid David Cameron’s growing popularity. However, to go for this tactic right at the start of a general election campaign does suggest Sunak’s No.10 operation is running out of levers to pull to tackle Starmer’s seemingly unassailable lead in the polls.

Sunak’s pivot into security marks a clear distinction from his previous attempts to put the Conservatives on the path to election victory. At the 2023 Conservative Party Conference, he tried to paint himself as the change candidate and separate himself from the then 13 years of Conservative rule. Sunak was subsequently forced to adopt a continuity-focused strategy and defend the Conservatives’ record in office following David Cameron’s return as Foreign Secretary later that year.

The extent to which Sunak’s latest reset will work will depend on whether the electorate is still listening. The Conservative Party can highlight its commitment to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, a pledge yet to be matched by Labour, who have adopted the looser definition of meeting the 2.5% figure “as soon as resources allow.” However, with Labour so far ahead in the polls and three changes of tack in less than a year, it does raise the prospect that the Prime Minister is trying to engage an electorate which is simply no longer interested in what the Conservatives have to offer.

The Impact of National Party Popularity on Local Politics

GK Associate Hugo Tuckett and GK Adviser Rebecca McMahon discuss the extent to which voter perception of national parties will shape the upcoming local election results.

Can local Conservative campaigners turn the tide on a bleak national picture?

Labour’s national polling lead over the Conservatives appears deeply entrenched. According to YouGov, the Party has held a 20+ point lead since September 2022. While on a national level the polls indicate that the Conservatives could be heading for annihilation in 2024, could there be a ray of hope for Conservative mayors and councillors ahead of the local elections on 2 May? Does national polling translate to voter preferences locally?

Support for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson’s leadership only consistently fell behind Labour following high-profile events such as Owen Paterson’s breaching of parliamentary rules on lobbying and the Partygate scandal. Rishi Sunak (with a little help from Liz Truss’ short-lived premiership) has been unable to turn the tide on the Party’s lack of national appeal.

Sunak has been unable to solidify Conservative support in the red wall – a key element of its 2019 voter coalition – and polling indicates that all red wall seats won will return to Labour at the upcoming general election, expected in October or November. Traditional Conservative voters from both wings of the Party are also deserting it over perceived policy failings. Voters focused on immigration policy are increasingly voicing support for Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats are making inroads with environmentally aware voters in Southern England.

However, with local elections taking place in early May, will these national trends translate to local level results?

Pollster Ipsos Mori has found that 42% of voters considered local factors most important in determining their vote in local elections. However, 33% of those polled also said that party policies on national issues were a decisive factor.

Conservative mayoral candidates have sought to distance themselves from their Party’s national brand and promote their personal appeal ahead of polling day. Andy Street, the West Midlands Mayor, has largely excluded references to the Conservative Party from his campaign material and, by his own admission, is running an individual ‘brand Andy’ campaign. Similarly, Conservative MP Ben Bradley, candidate for the East Midlands mayoralty, admitted to adopting a similar strategy, saying there is “clearly not a brilliant national picture”.

The extent to which these candidates can successfully separate themselves from the national party brand may be crucial to their success at a local level. However, with a third of voters saying party policies on national issues will be key in deciding how they vote in local elections, local campaigners could be bound by their Party’s national fortunes.

View from Westminster: Local Elections Expected to Increase Pressure on the Prime Minister

GK Associate Joshua Owolabi and GK Adviser Noureen Ahmed assess the mood in Westminster ahead of the local elections in May.

Conservative Party (dis)unity in focus ahead of the local elections

With local elections taking place on 2 May, all eyes are firmly on the Conservatives, as the party braces for defeat. Respected psephologists Michael Thrasher and Colin Rallings, the Directors of the Local Government Chronicle’s Elections Centre, have predicted that the Party could potentially lose up to 500 seats, if it repeats its poor performance from the 2023 local elections. This would see half of the Tory councillors facing election lose their seats. Despite the optimism from Sunak’s allies that fellow Tory MPs will not agitate for yet another change in leadership, a heavy defeat could be perilous for the Prime Minister.

Speculation continues in Westminster about the implications of defeat for Sunak and his government. In recent months, press coverage has focused on whether a rebel group of MPs and former Tory advisers were plotting to use the election results to further undermine Sunak’s authority. There is already ammunition for the plotters to use, such as the rebellion in mid-April over the Second Reading of the Tobacco and Vaping Bill. The rebellion was orchestrated by the Tory right, and included potential successors, such as Kemi Badenoch. Although the Government won the vote, it was a reminder that party discipline is still lacking – an ominous sign ahead of the local elections.

Sunak’s opponents within the Conservative Party will be well aware of the historical significance of local elections. In 1979, 1997 and 2010 respectively, Thatcher, Blair and Cameron all secured general election victories following strong performances in the local elections that preceded them. As a general election is only a few months away, many would question how a change in leadership would be beneficial to the Party. However, if the Conservatives are routed by Keir Starmer’s Labour, then it presents disgruntled MPs with a choice – are their plans to prevent a general election defeat best served by pressuring the Prime Minister on policy and strategy in private, or are more drastic measures required?

Labour and Gender Equality: A Radical Agenda or All Talk?

Following International Women’s Day earlier in March, GK Adviser Rebecca McMahon looks at what an incoming Labour Government could mean for women’s equality.

Labour’s ambitious women’s equality agenda is one to watch

If the Labour Party wins the upcoming General Election, Rachel Reeves will become the UK’s first female Chancellor of the Exchequer and Angela Rayner is set to become the first female Deputy Prime Minister. The number of women in the current Parliamentary Labour Party is at an all-time high of 52.7% and given the number of prospective parliamentary candidates in seats likely to swing to Labour, the number is likely to remain high.

The party has been accused of hollowing out promises related to more radical policies about climate change and workers’ rights. However, it appears the party remains committed to delivering on its ambitious roster of pledges on women’s equality. At the 2023 Labour Party Conference, Rayner announced her intention to amend the Equalities Act to introduce a legal duty for employers to have sexual harassment prevention measures in place. In Rayner’s rallying speech, she combined a commitment to women’s safety with a promise to make their working lives fairer. Measures included toughening sentences for perpetrators of rape and stalking and halving the levels of violence against women and girls. A crackdown on unfair pay and a promise to “empower women entrepreneurs” was also included.

Translating virtuous ideas on empowerment into robust policy is a difficult process. However, the presence of key female decision-makers in the shadow cabinet demonstrates that Labour is not neglecting the importance of senior women for formulating representative policy. Perhaps this will set a precedent for the party to elect a woman to the top spot for the first time (one area in which the Conservatives currently top the tables, 3-0!).