Author Archives: GK Strategy

‘End of Term’ Reflections for Labour

The highs and lows of the first parliamentary year

In its first year since winning the 2024 general election, Starmer’s government has shown intent to implement its manifesto pledges, but whether this has translated into successful policy delivery remains a subject of debate. Ministers have pursued ambitious reforms in areas like trade, education, health, and energy, but they have also faced political turbulence and criticism over policy missteps, particularly around tax, grooming gangs and welfare reform.

Crucially, the government seems to be unable to unlock that elusive growth on which so much of its spending plans depend.  Much of Labour’s policy programme is still in its early stages, with a strong emphasis on structural reform in Whitehall and long-term planning which should be commended. However, this emphasis leaves the government with few immediate wins to show the public and, with key reforms still light on detail and outcomes, questions are already mounting about the government’s effectiveness.

On the international stage, however, the Prime Minister has emerged as a confident statesman. His handling of the Trump presidency, securing of trade deals with the US, EU and India, and continuation of the UK’s support for Ukraine have won praise both at home and abroad. This has helped to re-establish Britain’s role as a serious global actor – although notably absent of any meaningful involvement from foreign secretary David Lammy.

Domestically, there has been modest progress on housing and NHS waiting times, but delivery has been hampered by fiscal constraints. But domestic policy also reveals some of the sharpest criticism. The removal of the Winter Fuel Payment from millions of pensioners, presented as a necessary fiscal decision, sparked major backlash and a messy U-turn. The electorate does not expect these sorts of economic decisions from a Labour government, which has resulted in widespread reputational damage from a policy that seems to contradict Labour’s core identity. The increase in employer National Insurance contributions (NICs) has also been poorly received, with concerns over its impact on jobs and wages. On immigration, growing public unease and the government’s mixed messaging has opened space for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to gain traction and control the narrative.

Overall, the government has had a mixed first year. There was no political honeymoon, with downbeat messaging on the economy, the early ‘freebies scandal’ and unpopular welfare cuts undermining any prospect of ministers picking up some early momentum. Coupled with a challenging economic backdrop, rising support for Reform UK and the geopolitical volatility exacerbated by Trump’s return to power, the need for a recalibration of political and policy strategy is becoming clear. The government’s commitment to its manifesto is not in doubt, but turning that commitment into visible, meaningful results is the test that now lies ahead.

Labour and the business & investor community: a genuine partnership for growth?

Courting investors and businesses was a key part of Labour’s pre-election pitch. The Prime Minister and Chancellor were keen to demonstrate the party’s credibility on the economy and support investment into the UK as part of its wider growth ‘mission’. However, in government, Rachel Reeves used her first fiscal event – the 2024 autumn budget – to increase employer NICs by 1.2%, representing a £25 billion tax hike on businesses. This came alongside increases to Capital Gains Tax and the National Living Wage. The latter measure has been particularly costly for businesses with a large proportion of low paid workers on their payroll.

While the government argued this was necessary to address the fiscal ‘black hole’ it inherited from the outgoing Conservatives and to boost support for low-paid workers, it has done little to inspire confidence in the business and investment community. Indeed, GK Strategic Advisers and former ministers David Laws and Rob Halfon both warn that the employer NICs rise has been particularly damaging to the government. This is despite early positive decisions on infrastructure and commitments to speed up planning processes. Since last year’s budget, ministers have been playing catch up in their efforts to restore confidence amongst businesses and stimulate private investment at a time when geopolitical uncertainty is threatening to wreak havoc on the global economy.

President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement on 2 April, which saw his administration unveil sweeping global tariffs, was a watershed moment and one which Starmer deftly navigated. The US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal sees the UK sidestep many of the Trump’s tariffs and, amongst other provisions, allows UK car manufacturers to sell vehicles to the US at a 10% tariff rate and cuts tariffs on UK aerospace exports to zero.

Despite Starmer’s success on the international stage, challenges lie ahead for the government in its relationship with businesses and investors. The Employment Rights Bill is due to complete its passage through Parliament in the autumn. The legislation introduces a new package of workers’ rights, including day one employment rights, ending the use of certain zero hours contracts and improving access to flexible working arrangements. Many of the measures contained in the bill will be subject to further consultation with businesses over the coming months. It is vital that the government gets the eventual implementation of these reforms right to avoid any further damage to its relationship with the business and investment community.

As parliament rises for summer recess and we take stock of the government’s first full parliamentary year, it is fair to say that the public-private partnership for growth that Labour first envisaged when it came to power has not yet materialised. As put by GK Strategic Adviser and former Health Minister Steve Brine: “The growth mission, which sits at heart of the government’s plan to get re-elected, has been hampered by uncertainty from the shifting taxation landscape and the many reviews and consultations that are yet to translate into firm policy direction.”

Starmer will need to translate the success he has found on the international stage to his domestic agenda if he hopes to bring businesses and investors back on side and enable them to deliver the economic growth upon which so much of his government’s policy agenda relies.

The ‘ones to watch’

Westminster has been speculating for several months as to whether the Prime Minister will instigate a cabinet reshuffle before the end of 2025. Though it may seem like a distant prospect, many are already keeping an eye on some Labour MPs who could be next in line for promotion.

Peter Kyle MP: With experience as a former Special Adviser in the last Labour government, Kyle is a slightly more seasoned voice in the Labour ranks than other rising stars. Described by Steve Brine as “hugely gifted”, the Science and Tech Secretary has consistently impressed, particularly in his initiative to coordinate a unified cross-government approach to data, digital and AI, and as a talented and dependable ‘Minister for the Morning Round’.

Torsten Bell MP: Formerly the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation and a Labour party aide during the 2008 financial crisis, Bell knows the ins and outs of policy, economics and politics. Though a fresh-faced Labour MP, part of the 2024 intake, he is already holding ministerial positions across both HM Treasury and the Department for Work and Pensions, and is expected to continue to rise through the ranks.

Miatta Fahnbulleh MP: Taking over the seat Harriet Harman represented since 1982 was no small feat, but Fahnbulleh has not disappointed. Like Bell, Fahnbulleh was elected in July 2024 and was immediately appointed to a junior ministerial role. A former Cabinet Office official and CEO of the New Economics Foundation, her experience has made her a capable MP and minister. Her reputation for going above and beyond has not gone unnoticed, with David Laws remarking she is “a bright junior minister who has already impressed her colleagues”.

Josh MacAlister MP: Otherwise known as education and social care’s ‘golden child’, MacAlister entered parliament with a reputation that precedes him. MacAlister was chosen by the Conservative government to conduct an eponymous review of children’s social care in 2021. Now serving as the parliamentary private secretary to Pat McFadden – one of the government’s most instrumental figures – MacAllister has been carefully watching the recommendations of his review being implemented through the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill. He is certainly proving himself to be successful campaigner and capable MP.

The next 12 months, and beyond…

For David Laws, the priority for the next 12 months is “growth”. The Chancellor faces the daunting task of stabilising the public finances while avoiding tax rises in the autumn. However, recent briefings suggest that tax rises, particularly on higher earners, seem inevitable unless economic performance improves. Her Mansion House Speech set out Reeves’ plans to unlock growth in the financial services sector, while trade deals struck signal an important first step towards a more outward-facing agenda. A more pragmatic approach to Europe, while politically fraught, remains a low-cost, pro-business lever available to the government to recover some of the growth lost post-Brexit.

Another priority is the ‘retail offer’ that helped Labour win in 2024: NHS reform. Steve Brine argues that meeting the 18-week waiting time target for NHS elective care would be seen as a real mark of success. Elsewhere, there are the structural reforms underway for planning and devolution that were fundamental to the “decade of national renewal” promised during the election campaign. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, empowered and ambitious within the government, is quietly progressing with this agenda with little sign of slowing down.

David Laws suspects that we will also see those more talented ministers begin to demonstrate progress in exciting vanguard sectors like technology, AI and clean energy: areas which are vital to enhancing the UK’s economic position.

Measurement of success in May

The real test of success will be the elections in major cities and, significantly, in the Welsh and Scottish parliaments in May 2026. While midterm elections are often tricky for incumbent governments, Labour would not have been expecting to weather such dissatisfaction so soon, and a poor performance at the May 2025 local elections was an early warning sign of this.

The traditional dividing lines of left and right, class and geography, are no longer accurate measures of voter sentiment. Rather, the electorate is split into groups defined less by ideology, and more by attitudes to institutions, cultural, social and economic issues. Steve Brine emphasises that support for the two main parties has always been fluid. However, in 2024, Labour and Conservatives collectively won just 54% of the vote – a post-war low. Recent polling showing double digit support for smaller parties like the Greens suggests fertile ground for insurgent parties that are attracting support from new parts of the electorate that they wouldn’t normally have.

Technocrats vs. Populism

GK Strategic Adviser and former Care Minister Phil Hope warns that the rise in populism is the “biggest threat to our democratic institutions”. For No.10, the immediate concern is Reform UK. The Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney – who is often characterised as the architect of Starmer’s premiership – believes that right-wing populism must be defeated by showcasing competent government. In practical terms, this means delivering real improvements to the way people interact with public services, and being tougher on immigration, to reassure disenfranchised, Reform-leaning voters that their economic and cultural concerns are being addressed.

While Reform grabs the headlines, Labour also faces mounting dissent from the left. Disillusioned, younger voters are drifting towards alternatives that they believe are more convincing and radical on climate, equality and security issues. While 6% of Labour’s 2024 voters have moved to Reform, three times as many have shifted to parties of the left. Recent polling gains for the Green Party and a new party led by Jeremy Corbyn underscore this trend. It is worth remembering that Corbyn secured 40% of the vote in 2017 compared to Starmer’s just 33.7% in 2024. For a Labour leadership that has worked hard to marginalise the hard left, this insurgent left-wing movement could expose vulnerabilities in Labour’s emerging strategy of wooing Reform voters on issues such as immigration and the so-called ‘culture wars’.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right

Labour now finds itself squeezed on both its political flanks, while struggling to articulate a unifying strategy for the broad, fragile coalition it assembled in 2024. Without a coherent narrative, it risks alienating voters whose priorities and values increasingly diverge.

In political terms, there is still a long way to go until the next election. But in the absence of a compelling narrative or delivery on issues such as immigration, Downing Street faces a difficult task to work out who its voter base is and what it wants. As GK’s strategic advisers all note, an economic upturn would relieve much of this pressure. But with that unlikely in the next 12 months, the consequences will be felt at the ballot box in May 2026 – where Labour’s already narrow share of the vote could be eroded further.

Scott Dodsworth // Senior Partner & Managing Director // scott@gkstrategy.com

 

From farm to fork: An ambitious food strategy published by Defra

The government has published its food strategy, setting out a vision for a healthier, more affordable, sustainable and resilient food system. It is ambitious in scope and designed to reconcile often competing objectives from farm to fork.

The food strategy identifies three interlocking dynamics of the UK food system:

i) a junk food cycle driven by our appetite for highly processed, energy-dense foods and the strong commercial incentives this creates to produce foods high in sugar and fat,

ii) the invisible cost to nature which fails to reward sustainable and environmentally friendly food production, and

iii) a resilience gap that means the UK is highly exposed to multiple and increasing risks, such as climate change.

The next step for ministers and officials is to develop an implementation plan, as well as metrics and indicators to measure progress towards achieving the strategy’s ten priority outcomes. This will take time and require ministers to engage with industry and business to ensure the government’s transition to a ‘good food cycle’ is achievable. It will also need to align with forthcoming strategies in Defra’s to-do list to deliver real, joined-up change across the entire food system. To name a few – the Land-Use Framework, the Food and Farming Decarbonisation Plan, the Farming Roadmap and Farming Profitability Review, and the Circular Economy Strategy.

What does the food strategy mean for agri-tech?

There is a huge opportunity for businesses in the space to engage with government off the back of the publication of the food strategy. Ministers clearly see innovation as critical to resolving system challenges in everything from public health to food security. Agri-tech businesses should take note: the government is not only signalling interest but actively investing in solutions that can deliver measurable impact.

To maximise this opportunity, businesses should look to demonstrate how they can support the government in achieving the food strategy’s core objectives – boosting productivity, enhancing resilience and delivery environmental sustainability. Collaborating with early adopters to demonstrate real-world use cases can help build a compelling evidence base that convinces policymakers of a solution’s viability and impact. Engaging with policymakers means staying ahead of regulatory change and shaping policy and market reforms to establish pathways to commercialisation.

Agri-tech may well represent the silver bullet policymakers are searching for, but unless the sector speaks up and showcases its impact, those solutions risk going unnoticed.

If you need help with demonstrating how you can become a key player in the government’s food strategy, contact GK Strategy today.

Sky’s the limit: Why agri-tech should engage on drone law reform

Drones and autonomous flight technologies are set to revolutionise how we travel, deliver goods and produce food, and the government has taken note. As part of a comprehensive three-year review into the regulatory framework of autonomous flight and the use of drones, the Law Commission has launched a second consultation. Its three-year review is nearing completion with recommendations expected to be published by early 2026 and will shape how this fast-moving sector evolves. For innovators in agri-tech and beyond, the opportunity to help design the rules that will govern a sky filled with commercial drones is now.

Flying free from EU constraints

Legislative agility to facilitate innovation is the ambition and ties into the government’s wider economic growth agenda. Aviation law in the UK is prescriptive and duly geared towards the passenger aviation sector. With the UK no longer bound by EU aviation rules, policymakers can now craft a more bespoke, agile regulatory environment that encourages experimentation, accelerates innovation and attracts investment.

However, the government has identified a possible post-Brexit dividend as the current regulatory regime is largely a carryover from current EU law. This presents a unique opportunity to break away from legacy constraints and design a tailored regime for UK-specific innovations and ambitions. A more flexible regime could fast-track the safe deployment of cutting-edge drone technology and give UK-based companies a first-mover advantage, enabling them to export innovations globally.

Drones on farms: Unlocking agri-tech potential

Commercial applications of drone technology are wide ranging. For the food and agriculture sectors alone, drones could revolutionise farming operations:

  • Precision agriculture from monitoring crops based on thermal sensors to scanning fields and accurately predicting crop yields.
  • Agricultural sprays deploying pesticides, fertilisers and herbicides thereby reducing labour costs, use of chemicals and their environmental impacts, and identifying diseases or pests to prevent wider outbreaks.
  • Irrigation management by identifying drainage issues to drought-stressed areas and enabling the more efficient use of water and real-time crop water requirements.
  • Crop insurance and assessment by providing accurate, unbiased and detailed imagery required by insurers to speed up claims processes.
  • Harvesting assistance by providing crop maturity assessments to more effectively plan harvesting schedules and boosting the quality of crop yields.
  • Forestry and orchard management by measuring canopy growth, quantifying tree populations and aiding pruning schedules.

The economic case for drone-powered agriculture

There are many economic benefits – from reduced labour and input costs through more precise allocation of resources, to increasing crop yields via data driven decision making. Lower chemical and water usage not only cuts costs but also supports environmental sustainability. For businesses able to make the capital investment, drone technology is set to become a core component of modern agricultural management, policymakers should be engaged on this.

Government support signals lift-off

There is clear momentum in government to embrace drone technologies. The aviation minister has confirmed £20 million in funding for new flight technologies, including £5m earmarked for the Future of Flight Challenge. These initiatives could create government-backed testbeds for agri-tech solutions and help de-risk businesses ready for investment. For innovators in the sector, this is a moment to engage directly with policymakers, to shape the regulatory framework and unlock the commercial potential of drone led farming. The Law Commission’s second consultation is open until 18 July 2025, and alongside a wider engagement programme, this is a key opportunity to have your voice heard and set the direction of travel for the sector.

Food standards or economic growth? A very British trade-off

Recent months have been busy for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, having secured trade agreements with the EU, USA and India which promise to rewrite the future of the food and agriculture sectors. With these agreements having largely been welcomed by the UK food industry, attentions will now turn to ensuring the UK remains firm in a turbulent geopolitical environment to uphold future protection of UK food production.

UK-US

Among the most headline-worthy agreements is the revised trade policy for the beef and bioethanol sectors between the USA and UK. The Prime Minister allayed tariff concerns and secured reciprocal access to US beef markets, permitting British farmers to export up to 13,000 metric tonnes of beef per year. In return, the 20% tariff on US beef imports has been removed, as have tariffs on US ethanol and bioethanol.

The government has assured the food industry that closer ties to the US market will not be to the detriment of UK food standards. Concerns over chlorinated or hormone-treated meat, which is legal in the US but banned in the UK, have frequently been raised by British farmers and consumers. Defra secretary, Steve Reed, clarified that British standards will be upheld and agricultural food imports must still adhere to UK standards. The UK has previously come under pressure from the USA to dilute these standards.

While the UK appears firm in its resolve this time around, some in the sector are concerned that competition with cheaper and lower quality international products might push British farmers out of the market and force the government to revise its standards. The National Farmer’s Union has expressed concern that US beef might undercut British beef as it is often cheaper, making it an attractive product to hospitality and catering groups but putting British meat at risk. The food sector should be vocal about holding the government to account on food safety and standards, and promoting British products, in order to insulate the sector from potential risks.

While the agreement presents a series of opportunities for British farmers to capitalise from profitable US beef markets, the industry must closely monitor the UK’s dedication to strict food standards.

UK-India

The UK has signalled its interest in forging closer economic ties with India, with the IMF predicting it to be the third largest economy by 2030. The UK-India Free Trade Agreement commits India to reduce tariffs on 90% of UK exports, with the UK in return scrapping tariffs on 99% of Indian exports. Similarly to the US agreement, it is hoped that this will reap long-term benefits for British farmers.

Lamb exports to India, which had previously been subject to a 33% import duty will now face no cost, increasing British competition in Indian markets. Other UK goods including chocolate, salmon and cod will also be tariff free, and alcohol including whisky and gin will see their tariffs halved to 75%.

Following the deal, the government has confirmed that British food standards will be upheld. However, Indian use of pesticides has been raised by farming and environmental groups who have suggested this could cause risk to UK consumers. The Pesticide Action Network has labelled the deal a ‘toxic trade’, given the higher number of highly hazardous pesticides that India permits on its produce. As concerns have been mounting following both the India and USA agreement, businesses operating in the food and farming sector should consider how they best communicate their concerns to government.

UK-EU

Rounding off a busy month of trade negotiations was the agreement with the EU. A natural ally on the importance of high food standards, the EU deal was a slightly simpler process given there was no pressure to dilute the UK’s position on food and welfare standards. The deal removes some routine checks on animal and plant products, easing the flow. Additionally, the deal enables raw meat including burgers and sausages to be sold back to the EU for the first time following Brexit under new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreements.

While the trio of trade agreements will significantly broaden opportunities for British farmers and help boost UK competition, many fear they will ultimately dilute the government’s commitment to food and welfare standards. The government has signalled that it is not willing to jeopardise its commitment to health and food standards – yet. However, food and farming businesses must remain alert to the threat that cheaper overseas products can have on British markets and the potential for costs to be saved through lower food safety regulations.

Despite the government’s commitment to “Back British” produce so that 50% of food supplied in catering contracts comes from British farms, it is essential that Defra is held to account on this. Keeping on top of government policy and actively communicating the importance of food standards to policymakers will be key to protecting British food.

The case for agri-tech in public health

The public health problem

Over one in four adults are obese, with an additional 36% classified as overweight in England. The prevalence of obesity has been steadily rising since 1993, with little evidence to suggest this trend is slowing. This is not solely an adult issue. The sharpest increases in obesity have recently been observed among children. Currently, 15% of children aged 2 to 15 are obese, and a further 27% are overweight. Projections from the Royal Society of Public Health suggest the situation will get worse. 39% of children are expected to be obese or overweight by 2029–30, rising to 41% by 2034–35.

The cost

The government estimates that obesity is costing the NHS £6.5bn a year and is the root cause of diabetes and heart disease and the second biggest preventable cause of cancer after tobacco smoking. Less conservative estimates that account for wider consequences suggest that poor diets cost the UK £126bn a year. There is a strong rationale for public health intervention and the Labour government is demonstrating a willingness to intervene. One of health secretary Wes Streeting’s big three healthcare shifts set out in this week’s NHS 10 Year Plan is a shift from treatment to prevention, and for public health this means intervention.

Government action

Trailing the publication of the NHS 10 Year Plan alongside an obesity strategy, the government has announced a new standard for food retailers to make the average shopping backet of goods healthier. Big food businesses will be required to report on healthy food sales and will be overseen by the Food Strategy Advisory Board. This builds on a government consultation launched in May on plans to tighten the sugar levy by reducing the minimum sugar content level from 5g to 4g and remove the exemption for milk-based drinks. This signals a clear appetite within government for more interventionist policies. Such an approach will undoubtedly incur backlash from anti-nanny state politicos and big industry actors. However, it also creates an opportunity for innovators.

Agri-tech innovators

A contested political environment driven by a firmer stance on obesity and healthy foods by ministers, creates a window for pragmatic, science-driven solutions. Crop biofortification to increase the nutritional profile of foods. Precision fermentation to produce low-fat dairy and bioactive compounds. Modified starches with a lower glycaemic index. The agri-tech sector is well-placed to engage and support the government to achieving public health outcomes. Junk food advertisement bans might grab the political headlines, but ministers will need solutions that measurably change health outcomes and improve the health of the nation.

What next

The NHS 10 Year Plan and the obesity strategy will feed into Defra’s set piece item due for publication later this year: the national food strategy. Broadening access to healthy foods dominates the political discourse around this food strategy. Improving public health and tackling obesity have shot up the political agenda and joining this up with food and farming policy is the key to successfully achieving these policy aims. Aligning with the government’s thinking and offering solutions to public health priorities will strengthen the agri-tech sector’s positions to shape policy and work alongside ministers and policymakers.