Starmer’s forced reshuffle won’t distract from the challenges ahead

Keir Starmer has a natural dislike for carrying out reshuffles, recognising the political damage they have caused for several of his predecessors. Reshuffles can end up creating more enemies than friends, and despite a working majority of over 150, Starmer will be only too aware that his personal approval rating is at its lowest ebb since the election last year.

While the timing of the reshuffle was far from ideal, the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner for a failure to pay the correct amount of stamp duty forced his hand. Last week was originally billed as the second phase of the Labour government’s programme for change. If year one was about clearing up the Conservative mess, year two was supposed to be all about implementation and delivery. But no sooner than No.10 had announced its 2.0 reset, the government’s ethics adviser found Rayner in breach of the ministerial code, forcing Starmer onto the back foot and wrestling to regain the political narrative.

Emerging from the reshuffle were three themes. The first was the rise of Labour’s future leadership candidates. On the Blairite wing of the party is the immovable Wes Streeting at Health. With waiting times for elective care heading in the right direction and one of the best media performers in government, Streeting has embedded his position as one of the big beasts within the party.  Another MP that has moved firmly centre stage is Shabana Mahmood. Applauded for her handling of the prison crisis shortly after Labour entered office, she has been rewarded with a big promotion to the Home Office. Mahmood is seen as part of Blue Labour – a movement within the party designed to promote policies that bring back working class ‘blue-collar’ communities to Labour. Mahmood has demonstrated she is willing to take a more radical approach to policy, and with the small boats at the top of the political agenda, she has been entrusted to stop the crossings and eliminate the asylum backlog.

The second theme thrown into stark relief by Rayner’s departure is the widening gap in the soft left of the Party. There is an opportunity for someone on this wing to pick up the baton as a future leadership candidate. Some of the candidates emerging on the soft left, including Bridget Phillipson, Louise Haigh and Emily Thornberry, have already thrown their hats into the ring to become the next Deputy Labour leader. This is a potential headache for Starmer, who used this reshuffle to secure positions for several Blairites within the Cabinet, and who won’t want a powerful counterpoint within the party creating unhelpful new powerbases. One to watch will be Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, who is believed to want to return to Westminster politics at some point in the future. The deputy leadership race will run until 25 October, and all eyes will be on whether the internal party politics of the next six weeks create wider political difficulties for Starmer. The mood of the Parliamentary Labour Party will be under the spotlight, as will the success (or not) of No.10 and the Whips Office at party management.

The final theme to note is that Starmer has brought several experienced MPs back into government, and moved out some familiar faces. Ian Murray, former Secretary of State for Scotland, may be justified if he feels hard done by, having been shuffled out of government. During Labour’s years in opposition he was the only Labour MP in Scotland. In a sign of Starmer’s willingness to be ruthless when required, he has brought back veteran politician Douglas Alexander, who served in the cabinets of both Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, to head up the Scotland brief. Another example is Emma Reynolds, who has been appointed Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Reynolds was an MP between 2010 and 2019 and successfully ousted Conservative MP Steve Baker at the 2024 General Election to return to parliament. The experience of these senior politicians reflects Starmer’s commitment to focus on delivery.

After a difficult first year in government that saw the Prime Minister expend a significant amount of political capital, and with a challenging Budget ahead, Starmer will be acutely aware that his government must now deliver. Otherwise, there is a real risk that this period of labour in office could be viewed as a wasted opportunity.

Labour’s second year in office will be politically charged. Important pieces of legislation will be brought forward and new policy will be developed and introduced. This represents an opportunity for organisations to engage in the policy making process and have their voices heard. If you would like to discuss how best to achieve cut-through in a busy political environment, please do get in touch with GK Strategy’s expert team of political strategists and government relations experts.