View from the US: Independent candidates reclaiming the center in U.S. politics

Erin Caddell of GK Strategy’s American partner Anchor Advisors examines whether a new cohort of independent congressional candidates can capitalise on voter dissatisfaction with the two main parties, and what their influence could mean for investors and businesses

Independent American political movements have a colorful history. In 1828, the Anti-Masonic Party was founded with the sole purpose of dismantling the American Freemason Society, a fraternal organization that counted several of the Founding Fathers among its members and was thought by some to have undue influence in the young nation. Though it disbanded in 1840 (while the Freemasons kept going), the Anti-Masonic Party was the first in the US to hold nominating conventions and publish a platform, setting a precedent followed to this day. Founded in 1879 by former Confederate general William Mahone, the Readjuster Party reacted to economic stress in post-Civil War Virginia by working to cancel around one-third of that state’s debt. In the 20th century, Activist Symon Gould ran for president in 1960 and 1964 exclusively to promote vegetarianism. And then there was the hippie-era Youth International Party, or “Yippies”, which used irony and theatrics – in 1968 the party nominated a pig for president – to underline a serious message: that both major parties had allowed the Vietnam War to become a disaster for America.

Wonderful anecdotes all. But their quirkiness also highlights the dominance of the Republican and Democratic parties and their predecessors over much of American history. The best showing for an independent came in 1912, when the newly formed Progressive Party finished second in the presidential election with 27% – its candidate was Teddy Roosevelt, who had previously served two terms as a Republican president.

Despite this checkered history, some argue a new moment has arrived for American independent candidates, driven by dissatisfaction among many voters toward the Republican and Democratic parties. Gallup reported in January 2026 that a record-high 45% of U.S. voters surveyed characterized themselves as independents over Republicans or Democrats (27% each); a majority of Millennials (born 1981-1996) and Generation Z (1997-2007) identified as independent in the survey.

Motivated by distaste with the status quo and hoping to capitalize on the demographic trends cited above, a small but ambitious cohort of independent candidates has emerged to run for federal and state office in November. Over the summer, Anchor Advisors was invited to participate in a gathering of nine such candidates, as well as independent donors and activists, hosted in West Virginia by political-action groups Americans Together and the Independent Leadership Council.

One candidate featured at the event was Rep. Kevin Kiley, 41, the only current Member of the U.S. House registered as an independent, representing a suburban district outside Sacramento. Running for his third U.S. House term, Kiley switched his party affiliation from Republican to independent in March 2026 following California’s decision to redraw its congressional map in an attempt to make it easier to elect Democrats (part of a national tit-for-tat gerrymandering among both Democrat- and Republican-leaning states this year). Even before leaving the GOP, Kiley demonstrated a heterodox political ideology. A longtime critic of Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom, Kiley introduced a bill in Congress to block a proposed tax on wealthy individuals in California, while breaking with the Republican party on issues such as tariff and reductions in federal health insurance. Freed from the party label, Kiley has embraced his independent status even more, criticizing Trump’s recent decision to ban select media outlets from attending White House events, while urging Newsom to accept new Republican-supported federal funding to support school-choice programs, a frequent target of Democratic criticism. A September poll found Kiley tied in his re-election race at 37% with Democrat Richard Pan, with 26% undecided.

Another candidate who spoke at the West Virginia event is Seth Bodnar, 47, a first-time candidate running as an independent for U.S. Senate in Montana. Bodnar boasts a CV that politicians from any party would envy: an Army Green Beret with multiple overseas deployments, Rhodes Scholar, and president of the University of Montana for eight years. Bodnar’s platform represents a mix of conservative and progressive ideas (see below).

Select Platform Items of Seth Bodnar, Independent U.S. Senate Candidate – Montana

“End the costly and unauthorized war in Iran”

No further strikes or ground troop deployments without congressional authorization.

“Stop reckless tariffs driving up prices”

Support strategic tariffs used as leverage against countries cheating on trade, not

blanket tariffs on allies like Canada.

“Fight data centers and stand up to Big Tech”

Give local communities authority to block proposed data centers.

Bar utilities from raising bills for residential ratepayers due to data-center development.

“Protect the Second Amendment”

Opposes a federal assault weapons ban or a universal background check mandate.

“End dark money in our elections”

Overturn Citizens United [US Supreme Court decision that liberalized election spending].

Increase transparency requirements for dark money spending in elections.

“Secure our border and enforce immigration laws”

Giving the northern border the same attention and resources as the southern border.

Source: Sethformontana.com 

What does this mean for U.S.-focused investors and corporates? The emergence of independent candidates in the current election cycle is a reminder that despite the powerful forces driving American politics to extremes on both the right and the left, centrism remains an important dynamic that will well shape policy and politics in the next Congress and beyond. At the West Virginia gathering, former U.S. Senator Joe Manchin, a co-founder of Americans Together and co-host of the event in his native state, told the group that in a legislature narrowly divided among two parties, even a small number of independents can wield substantial power as both parties seek their votes. Manchin speaks from experience: the three-term moderate Democrat Senator became a key swing vote during Biden’s presidency. Manchin killed the Biden-backed Build Back Better proposal of green-energy and social-spending programs in 2021, then helped revive portions of the bill into what was signed into law as the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, the biggest legislative achievement of Biden’s presidency.

Regardless of the outcome of next month’s elections, members of Congress will be under pressure to respond to voters’ concerns in 2027 and 2028. Top of the list will be “affordability”, a catch-all for the many ways in which stuff is costing more across the U.S. Here, the deal-making spirit of a small group of independents could help jump-start proposed bills that have gotten bogged down by partisanship. A short list of possible areas for agreement: Energy permitting reform to speed up and ease regulation on energy and other construction projects; a full reauthorization of the Farm Bill (which has been subject to short-term extensions for the last six years), providing policy certainty to an agricultural sector currently racked by rising input costs and tariff volatility; and governance of data-centers, which if Congress does not act will surely be subject to a patchwork of state and local rules as public outcry against data centers rises. Unbeholden to the legacies of the two parties, independent candidates are also more willing to discuss ways to reduce the federal deficit and debt, a source of potential near-term disruption in the form of spending cuts and/or tax increases, but a welcome development for any long-term investor or operator of U.S. assets.

Can a new crop of independent candidates shake up the two-party system? Or will they suffer the short-lived fates of American third-party political movements of the past? We’ll see starting in a couple of weeks.